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The 2025 Indianapolis 500 starting grid is set, with Robert Shwartzman the first rookie on the pole in over 40 years. The Prema Racing driver is one of four rookies in the 2025 Indianapolis 500 field, while there are twice as many past champions looking to add to their collections. Among them are two-time defending champion Josef Newgarden, fellow two-time winner Takuma Sato, and record-tying four-time Indy 500 champion Helio Castroneves. Despite his past accomplishments, Castroneves is one of the biggest Indianapolis 500 longshots at 30-1. Pato O’Ward is the 5-1 favorite, per the latest Indianapolis 500 2025 odds, followed by Alex Palou (11-2), Scott Dixon (13-2) and Shwartzman (8-1).

The 109th Indianapolis 500 will take place on Sunday from Indianapolis Motor Speedway at 12:45 p.m. ET. Before scouring the 2025 Indy 500 starting grid and making any 2025 Indianapolis 500 predictions, be sure to see the latest 2025 Indianapolis 500 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary auto racing prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2025 NASCAR season by calling Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payout at the Clash at Bowman Gray. Then it predicted Kyle Larson’s win in Miami for a +350 payout, and Christopher Bell’s (+600) All-Star victory. In 2024, it nailed Larson to win in Las Vegas for a 21-5 sports betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 21 NASCAR winners since 2021.

It has been scorching hot when it comes to picking Formula 1 races dating back to 2021 as well. It nailed 10 victories across the 2021 and 2022 seasons and then forecasted Max Verstappen’s rise to prominence by calling all 19 of his wins during the 2023 season and each of his first seven wins in 2024. In all, it has called 32 of the last 51 Formula One winners dating back to 2023. Anyone who followed the model’s lead on those plays at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2025 Indianapolis 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2025 Indy 500 leaderboard.

Top 2025 Indianapolis 500 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Alexander Rossi, even though he is an 18-1 longshot in the latest 2025 Indianapolis 500 odds. In his first season with Ed Carpenter Racing, Rossi has gotten off to a slow start as he’s just 12th in IndyCar Series standings. However, he’s someone who has always seemed to perform better at The Brickyard than how he performs over a full IndyCar season. Rossi placed ninth or worse on the series each of the last three years, but he also finished in the top five of the Indianapolis 500 in each of the last three years.

Also, one can’t forget that he won his Indy 500 debut back in 2016 as the California native remains the last rookie to win The Greatest Spectacle in Racing. He also had a runner-up in 2019 and has six top-fives over his nine-start Indy 500 career. There being 10 other drivers with equal or lower odds than Rossi is surprising, so one shouldn’t hesitate in backing him with Indianapolis 500 2025 bets. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: Josef Newgarden, the two-time defending champion and one of the Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and doesn’t crack the top five. Newgarden notched a podium in the season opener at St. Petersburg, but that’s just about the only success he’s experienced this year. He’s finished 10th or worse in every other race in 2025 and is on pace for his worst IndyCar finish in a decade. Newgarden sits 11th in the standings after being among the top eight in each of the last 10 years, which includes two championships and three second-place finishes.

Newgarden’s struggles are a microcosm of Team Penske’s struggles as a whole. Of its three drivers, multiple had top-5 IndyCar Series finishes each of the last three years, but Penske currently doesn’t have any driver in the top five of the standings this season. Not only does Penske not have any wins across 15 total starts this season, it doesn’t even have any runners-up. There’s also the fact that Newgarden is battling history as no one in the 108-year history of the Indianapolis 500 has ever three-peated, so the odds aren’t in has favor to do so on Sunday. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Indianapolis 500 picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2025 Indy 500 odds longer than 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s Indy 500 projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Indy 500 2025, and which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2025 Indianapolis 500 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2025 Indianapolis 500 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted 21 NASCAR winners since 2021 and 32 Formula One winners since 2021. 

2025 Indianapolis 500 odds (subject to change)

See full 2025 Indy 500 picks at SportsLine

Pato O’Ward 5-1

Alex Palou 11-2

Scott Dixon 13-2

Robert Shwartzman 8-1

Takuma Sato 9-1

Scott McLaughlin 9-1

Josef Newgarden 19-2

Felix Rosenqvist 12-1

Kyle Larson 18-1

David Malukas 18-1

Alexander Rossi 18-1

Christian Lundgaard 20-1

Marcus Ericsson 20-1

Kyle Kirkwood 25-1

Conor Daly 25-1

Colton Herta 25-1

Will Power 25-1

Santino Ferrucci 25-1

Helio Castroneves 30-1

Ed Carpenter 60-1

Graham Rahal 80-1

Sting Ray Robb 80-1

Ryan Hunter-Reay 80-1

Louis Foster 80-1

Kyffin Simpson 100-1

Jack Harvey 100-1

Devlin DeFrancesco 100-1

Christian Rasmussen 100-1

Callum Ilott 100-1

Rinus Veekay 100-1

Nolan Siegel 100-1

Marcus Armstrong 100-1

Marco Andretti 100-1

Indianapolis 500 starting grid

Row 1 Robert Shwartzman  Takuma Sato  Pato O’WardRow 2 Scott Dixon  Felix Rosenqvist Álex PalouRow 3 David Malukas Christian Lundgaard Marcus EricssonRow 4 Scott McLaughlin Conor Daly Alexander Rossi Row 5 Kyffin Simpson Ed Carpenter Santino FerrucciRow 6 Devlin DeFrancesco Sting Ray Robb Christian RasmussenRow 7 Kyle Larson Louis Foster  Callum IlottRow 8 Hélio Castroneves  Kyle Kirkwood Nolan Siegel Row 9 Ryan Hunter-Reay  Jack Harvey Colton HertaRow 10 Graham Rahal Marco Andretti Marcus ArmstrongRow 11 Rinus VeeKay Josef Newgarden  Will Power