Image credit: Ethan Hindle (Photo by Eddie Kelly/ ProLook Photos)
With the Selection Show now in the rearview mirror and the Field of 64 officially set, it’s time to take a deeper look at the bracket. As is the case every season, there are a handful of teams who fall into the respective categories of winner, loser or snub. Which teams got a rather kind draw? Who maybe should’ve hosted and is instead a No. 2 seed? Which teams did the committee leave out despite having a compelling case to make the tournament? You will find all that and more below.
Kentucky
In our final bracket projection, Baseball America predicted Kentucky would be the first team left out of the field. Instead, the Wildcats proved they did enough to earn an at-large bid. They finished the season with a 29-24 overall record, a modest 13 SEC wins and went one-and-done in Hoover. Keep in mind, though, that Kentucky plays in the toughest conference in the sport and has the eighth-toughest strength of schedule. This weekend was a major sweat with all the stolen bids, but making the field is a clear win for coach Nick Mingione and company.
LSU
The sixth overall seed feels like a fair spot for the Tigers, if not a favorable draw. Little Rock and Rhode Island both enjoyed excellent seasons and won their respective conference’s tournament championships, but they aren’t necessarily the toughest No. 4 and No. 3 seeds in the field. Dallas Baptist, who may have had an outside chance of hosting if it had won the Conference USA tournament title, is certainly a tough No. 2 seed but LSU’s high-end depth on both sides of the baseball will be overpowering.
The Big East
Up until a few days ago, we thought the Big East was a legitimate three-bid league. Conference tournament champion Creighton ended up earning the league’s automatic bid, but for it to end up as a one-bid league—especially taking into account the resumes of UConn and Xavier—is surprising. The two clubs had comparable RPIs at 41 and 39, respectively, along with other favorable metrics. We’ll hit on Xavier a little further down, but UConn shared the regular-season conference title, compiled 38 overall wins, advanced to the conference tournament championship and totaled 12 quad-one and quad-two victories.
Coastal Carolina
The Kevin Schnall era is off to a roaring start in year one. The Chanticleers stormed through the Sun Belt and amassed the most conference wins in program history. Their 48 overall wins are the fourth-most in program history—and the most since 2016 when it won the national championship. They swept their way through the SBC tournament and they have an RPI of eight to go along with the No. 13 non-conference strength of schedule. Yet the Chanticleers are just the No. 13 overall seed.
Kansas
This was a historical season in Lawrence. Kansas’ 43-wins (and counting) are the second most in program history, its 21 conference wins are the most in program history and it heads into the tournament with an RPI inside the top 25 at 24. Not hosting is one thing—from this chair it felt as if the Jayhawks needed to make a deep run in the conference tournament, if not win it—but to be sent to No. 3 overall seed Arkansas? Ouch.
Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech didn’t get snubbed from the tournament—it’s the No. 2 seed in the Oxford Regional—but it’s listed here because it’s the first ACC regular-season champion to not host since 1999. On top of its regular-season title, the Yellow Jackets crossed the 40-win threshold, earned 20 conference victories, advanced to the ACC tournament semifinals, had the No. 31 strength of schedule and collected a dozen quad-one wins. Instead of hosting, Georgia Tech now heads to face the No. 10 overall seed Ole Miss. That is a mighty tough draw.
TCU
Georgia Tech’s “snub” argument also applies to TCU. The Horned Frogs this year amassed 21 conference wins, advanced to the Big 12 tournament title game—which it lost in extra-innings—and have quality “under the hood” metrics. Their RPI is 18, their overall strength of schedule and non-conference strength of schedule rank No. 18 and No. 14, respectively, and they notched 20 quad-one plus quad-two wins. Like the Yellow Jackets, the Horned Frogs also got a tough draw and are the No. 2 seed in the Corvallis Regional against Oregon State.
Xavier
Not making the tournament is one thing. But Xavier not finishing among the first four teams out is another. The Musketeers had a strong case for an at-large bid. They finished the season with a top-40 (39) RPI to go along with the No. 33 strength of schedule, the fourth-best non-conference strength of schedule and 16 quad-one plus quad-two wins. Their 16 Q1+Q2 wins are more than Arizona State (9), Kentucky (12) and Kansas State (13), which all earned at-large bids. As a cherry on top, it’s hard to not wonder what would have happened if Xavier’s early-season midweek matchup against Louisville didn’t get canceled. Playing the hypothetical game is hardly ever productive, but a win in that game most likely would have shot Xavier further up the RPI ladder.
