South Carolina will try to become college basketball’s first repeat national champion since 2016 when the NCAA women’s Final Four begins Friday in Tampa, Florida.
Top-seeded South Carolina will face fellow SEC opponent and top seed Texas in the night’s first semifinal. UCLA, the tournament’s top overall seed, and No. 2 Connecticut will follow in the other. The championship will be played Sunday.
NBC News breaks down the storylines to know and the players to watch ahead of the Final Four.
We have three No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 seed in the Final Four. Is that a good or bad thing for the game?
Greif: This is a question that has been asked of the women’s game more than the men’s because of the concentrated dominance of a small handful of programs since the 1980s. To me, the long-standing, even predictable, success of programs including Tennessee, Connecticut and South Carolina makes a breakthrough tournament run from an outsider program such as Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Arizona or Iowa even more memorable.
Dynasties aren’t a bad thing; they create strong storylines, especially when they are toppled. This year, that fresh contender is UCLA, which despite being a No. 1 seed isn’t a traditional blue-blood — it’s making its first Final Four.
Nadkarni: As a sicko who doesn’t make a bracket specifically to root for mass chaos, I am legitimately torn on this question. On one hand, the beauty of the knockout tournament is seeing an underdog catch fire and try to ride that wave all the way to the Final Four. On the other, it’s hard to be upset when most of the best talent in the sport is left to battle it out for a championship. So I will say that I err on the side of being pro-top seed. At the end of the day, when the stakes are at their highest, I want to see the sport’s best battling each other in high-pressure situations.
Which star are you most excited to watch?
Nadkarni: To the extent that there could even be a Cinderella story in a women’s Final Four filled with juggernauts, Paige Bueckers’ trying to win a ring as the elder stateswoman on a relatively young Connecticut Huskies squad fills that void for me.
Bueckers has had a roller-coaster collegiate career, essentially having two seasons (one partly, one entirely) ruined by injury. In her senior go-around with the Huskies, she has remained a talented and efficient scorer while also being the playmaker her team desperately needs.
Bueckers and UConn have been in the Final Four each of the last two years (and four out of the last five seasons), but the program hasn’t won a championship since 2016. Bueckers’ returning the Huskies to glory would be an incredibly satisfying story.
Greif: UCLA’s Lauren Betts. The 6-foot-7 center is the national defensive player of the year because she can not only guard post players but also stifle wings; she’s averaging 3.5 blocks during the NCAA Tournament. Oh, and she’s putting up 23 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game in the tournament, as well. How UCLA strategizes to maximize its star Betts, and Connecticut its own in Bueckers, will be must-watch TV.
Team I’m most worried about
Greif: Texas. The Longhorns take 10 3-pointers per game, and only two teams in the entire country attempted fewer this season. That formula has worked just fine to this point, but against a superior team like South Carolina, it could be asking a lot to score against the Gamecocks’ defense.
Much of that responsibility will fall to SEC Player of the Year and Texas wing Madison Booker. South Carolina is 2-1 against Texas this season, with its wins coming by an average of 18 points.
Nadkarni: Truth be told I am not exactly “worried” about any of these teams because they are all good. This question feels like a trap! I will not be giving anyone bulletin-board material! But since I am being forced to pick, I’ll nominate South Carolina here.
The Gamecocks have won their last two games by only eight points combined, which means opponents have been hanging a little close. Do I feel silly saying this about a Dawn Staley-coached team that has won two of out of the last three national championships? Of course! Maybe Texas, which lost to South Carolina by 19 when these teams last met in the SEC Championship, has something up its sleeve.
Final Four and title game prediction
Nadkarni: Connecticut defeats UCLA 75-70 and South Carolina defeats Texas 60-58 in the Final Four.
Connecticut wins the national championship 71-67 against South Carolina.
Bueckers gets her storybook ending, avenges UConn’s loss in the 2022 national championship and gets selected No. 1 overall in the WNBA draft as a champion.
Greif: South Carolina defeats Texas 71-56 and Connecticut defeats UCLA 75-70 in the Final Four.
Connecticut wins the national championship 67-60 against South Carolina.
I’m loath to pick against Bueckers, who gives the tradition-rich Huskies their best shot to win a first national title since 2016. The Huskies won their mid-February meeting in a 29-point rout.
Andrew Greif
