Traders boosted expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year — and raised the specter of a reduction before the central bank’s next meeting — as the US administration’s tariffs ignite fears of a global recession.

Markets briefly priced in 125 basis points of easing by year end, equivalent to five quarter-point moves, overnight interest-rate swaps showed. While traders later pared that move back, the uptick has been sharp; as of last week, just three reductions were fully priced. Swaps also show a chance of almost 40% that the central bank lowers its benchmark rate 25 basis points by next week, well before the Fed’s next scheduled policy decision on May 7.