President Trump addresses a joint session of Congress in the House chamber Tuesday night. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

In this city of little political agreement, there’s consensus on one big thing: President Trump is picking more fights, with more action than mere words, with more lasting consequences than anyone expected.

Why it matters: Turns out, Trump wasn’t bluffing about imposing 25% tariffs, about pardoning Jan. 6 criminals, or punishing Europe, or rewarding Russia, or growing executive power, or gutting the FBI, or filling his Cabinet with loyalists, or penalizing the media, or taking a wrecking ball to government.

In fact, in most cases, he’s taking a more extreme approach than promised or expected.

• And he’s picking big, new public fights that very few, if any, saw coming: Seize the Panama Canal, rename the Gulf, buy Greenland, bully Canada, turn Gaza into a glitzy Riviera, abolish USAID and kneecap the White House Correspondents’ Association.

“We have accomplished more in 43 days than most administrations accomplished in four years or eight years,” Trump boasted as he began Tuesday night’s address to Congress. “And we are just getting started,” he said, describing his opening weeks as “nothing but swift and unrelenting action.”

• It was a speech on steroids — 9,900 words! At 100 minutes, Trump broke the record for a presidential address to Congress, besting President Bill Clinton’s marathon 2000 State of the Union address by 11 minutes.
• Talking about tariffs, Trump said: “There will be a little disturbance, but we are OK with that.”

The big picture: So much has been set in motion so fast, on so many fronts, that it’s hard for Trump’s own White House to implement and explain much of it, officials tell us. Trump and his MAGA supporters love it.

• But many elected Republicans we talk to privately worry it could just be too much — too much to navigate, and too much risk to the two things people care most about: their personal finances and security.
• Trump remains relatively popular. His sway over Republican elected officials and MAGA media is stronger than ever. And few Republicans with clout protest anything he does in any serious, sustained public way. Indeed, most take to X or Fox News to applaud even moves they privately question or dislike. So his confidence isn’t misplaced, aides tell us.

Behind the scenes: So far, Trump’s White House shrugs at concerns and complaints. If anything, aides’ collective confidence is on steroids, too. They admit few mistakes, express zero regrets, and believe wholeheartedly they’re right and critics are wrong. But Trump’s advisers and friends outside of the White House feel less certain.

• “Of course I’m worried,” one top Trump adviser, who spoke with the president recently at Mar-a-Lago, told Axios’ Marc Caputo. “We’re still in the honeymoon phase here. But the stock market and that data and the noise from Elon [Musk] aren’t great.”
• The adviser added: “He was so confident and at ease that I started to believe I shouldn’t be bedwetting.”

Data: The American Presidency Project. Chart: Axios Visuals

Trump’s surround sound: Trump is killing it — if you tune into MAGA media. Axios’ Tal Axelrod, our MAGA media expert, said the major right-wing platforms and podcasts, including Steve Bannon’s “War Room” and Jack Posobiec, lit up this week with victory cries on Ukraine and tariffs.

Nevertheless, risks for Trump are rising:

• The stock market fell sharply on Monday when Trump announced he’d press ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico, then had another big drop Tuesday after they kicked in at midnight.
• Stoking fears of inflation, Target warned shoppers Tuesday that prices would rise because of the tariffs Trump slapped on China.
• Last week, consumer confidence plummeted to an eight-month low amid concerns about Trump’s trade and tariff policies.
• Three polls in the past three days have shown Americans questioning whether Trump’s keeping his eye on the ball: 82% of U.S. adults said the economy should be a high priority but only 36% thought he was prioritizing that “a lot,” CBS News polling found. Only 31% of U.S. adults in a Reuters/Ipsos poll approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living. 52% of U.S. adults in a CNN poll said Trump hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems.

Around the world, old allies are flinching or fleeing:

• To understand the totality of the simultaneous fights of Trump’s choosing, consider the nations we have more tension with now than 44 days ago: Ukraine, Canada, Mexico, Denmark (via Greenland), Germany, Britain, France and Panama.
• Trump can rightly argue that relationships are better with Israel, the Saudis and Russia. But it’s old allies turning so quickly into skeptics or potential adversaries that’s disrupting geopolitical calculations.

Isolate on Canada: Trump has upended relations in radical ways. America’s northern neighbor is now dramatically more feisty, more anti-American and more pro-Liberal Party than it was when Trump took office. We’re now locked in a trade war that could hurt some U.S. consumers and, by Canadians’ own appraisal, devastate their economy.

• Trump wants big tariffs and, he keeps suggesting, to make Canada the 51st state. Canada’s response: a big middle finger to the USA, promising retaliatory tariffs and strafing Trump’s “very dumb” trade war.
• Trump sees Canada as an insignificant global player and weak neighbor, and incapable of winning a trade war with us, officials say. He’s indifferent to prior tight relations, or cooperation, or concerns of fraying partnership, the officials tell us

You could insert Germany or Ukraine or France or Britain into the sentences above, and the same holds true.

• Trump truly believes most relationships or agreements are transactional. So he’s fine being feared or loathed for trying to bully and bluster the best possible deal for America, according to these insiders.

Interestingly, the one area where Trump has been less vocal and draconian than anticipated is expelling illegal immigrants. He has tightened security and dramatically reduced illegal crossings — but his plans have run into the reality of existing laws, limited government resources and legal challenges, as Axios has reported.

• As a result of Trump’s crackdown, the number of migrants illegally crossing the Southwest border plummeted in February to the lowest level in decades, according to internal data obtained by Axios. “The Invasion of our Country is OVER,” Trump wrote Saturday on Truth Social.

Axios’ Marc Caputo contributed reporting.

• Go deeper: “Axios coverage in Trump era,” by Jim VandeHei.