The Miami Marlins (8-9) try to avoid getting swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks (11-7) on Thursday afternoon. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FanDuel Sports Florida and Dbacks.TV.
The Diamondbacks have won six of their last seven games entering Thursday’s series finale, and I see no reason to start fading them now.
Find my Diamondbacks vs Marlins prediction and preview for Thursday below.
Tap Here to Bet NowMy Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction
Diamondbacks vs Marlins pick:Diamondbacks ML (-162 | Play to -175)
My Diamondbacks vs Marlins best bet is the D-backs moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Odds, Lines
Thursday, Apr 17
12:10 p.m. ET
FDSFL
Diamondbacks OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline-1.5
+106
8.5
-118o / -104u
-154
Marlins OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline+1.5
-128
8.5
-118o / -104u
+130
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI)StatRHP Edward Cabrera (MIA)0-2W-L0-00.4fWAR (FanGraphs)04.86 / 3.39ERA / xERA3.18 / 5.233.26 / 2.74FIP / xFIP5.14 / 4.621.20WHIP1.2420.6%K-BB%8.3%47.6%GB%31.3%93Stuff+105107Location+86
Tony Sartori’s Diamondbacks vs Marlins Preview
Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Positive Regression for E-Rod
Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he should serve as a strong buy-low candidate. Through three starts this season, Rodriguez is 0-2 with a 4.86 ERA.
However, his underlying metrics suggest positive regression is likely. Not only does the southpaw own a 3.39 expected ERA (xERA), but he also ranks in the top half of the league in expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
That positive regression could arrive against the Miami Marlins, a team Rodriguez dominated in their last meeting. He pitched against Miami last August, allowing just one run while striking out five in fewer than six innings.
Arizona won that game 3-1.
Following Rodriguez is one of the best bullpens in baseball. This season, the Diamondbacks’ relief staff ranks first in both fielding independent pitching (FIP) and expected FIP (xFIP).
Marlins Betting Preview: Fade This Pitching Staff
Speaking of bullpens, Miami’s is on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Marlins’ relief staff ranks 27th in FIP and last in xFIP.
Relief pitching is not the only edge Arizona holds in this matchup. The Diamondbacks also boast a clear hitting advantage.
This year, Arizona outranks Miami in runs per game, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs. That just leaves the starting pitching, which is yet another edge for the Diamondbacks.
Right-hander Edward Cabrera starts for the Marlins. He trails Rodriguez in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and barrel rate.
My Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction, Betting Analysis
Cabrera has made only one start this season, an outing that went, analytically, better than it should have. A look at the past two seasons provides a more accurate picture of his ability.
The right-hander has finished each of the past two seasons with a 4.24 ERA or higher. Cabrera particularly struggled in the larger sample size last year, ranking in the bottom eight percent of MLB in both hard-hit rate and walk rate.
With the stronger starting pitcher, bullpen and lineup, Arizona is the team to back.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-162 | Play to -175)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I’m betting Diamondbacks moneyline at -162.
My Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-162)
Run Line (Spread)
I like Arizona to cover, but find more value in just taking the outright number.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Over, but don’t want to fade Rodriguez against Miami.
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Betting Trends
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Weather
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