Does the NBA regular season mean less than it used to?
Recent history seems to be pointing that way. I feel like I’m mentioning this every year, but as long as it stays true, I’ll keep doing it: The postseason has become less chalky. Historically, the average NBA postseason only sees four teams without home-court advantage prevail out of the 15 series, but of late, that number has increased. We’ve had 26 such teams win series in the past five years, while only three of the 10 No. 1 seeds in that span have made it to the NBA Finals.
Six teams won a playoff series without home-court advantage in 2024; in 2023, we had seven. Before that, we hadn’t had more than five since 1995, when the Houston Rockets provided four by themselves.
There’s a good reason things are less chalky: The trade deadline is a more significant transactional milestone than it used to be. Teams such as the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors look a whole lot different today than they did in November. In recent years, the 2024 Dallas Mavericks and 2022 Boston Celtics used major deadline acquisitions to help fuel NBA Finals runs without overwhelming regular-season results.
That said, it’s a more top-heavy NBA than it’s been in some time. While the Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers and Celtics ran circles around the league, my “52-3-3” club — at least 52 wins, a plus-3.0 scoring margin and a top-three seed — only has four teams in it, with Houston squeaking in. That qualifier describes 44 of the last 45 NBA champions (prorating shortened seasons, of course), with the ’95 Rockets the exception. That suggests the other 26 teams have a combined 2 percent title probability.
There are reasons to think the dominance of those three teams has slightly less to it than initially meets the eye. But historically, teams that win that much and by those margins rarely lose in the postseason except to another team of similar quality.
However, it might be a fun ride through the early rounds. One indicator of a potential first-round upset is if the team with home-court advantage didn’t win the season series; that will be true in at least six cases this year, and possibly all eight if Atlanta and Dallas win Friday. Additionally, there’s something in the water in the second round: In the past five postseasons, teams with home-court advantage are just 7-13 in the conference semis.
Where does that leave us? With a lot of questions. And that’s good. Few things are more boring than waiting around two months for a fait accompli. Maybe in two months it will all seem obvious, but for the moment, we have some mystery in my playoffs preview and predictions.
Western Conference first round
(1) Thunder vs. (8) Grizzlies or Mavericks
The Thunder won 68 games with an all-time great scoring margin; they’re not losing four out of seven to either of these teams. On paper, Memphis has much more ability to make it a real series, pending Ja Morant’s ankle and antics, but the Grizzlies floundered down the stretch and are running out of usable wing players. That’s not a great situation when faced with the Thunder’s dominant guards. Dallas’ size, meanwhile, can put a little more pressure on Oklahoma City’s frontcourt, but the Mavs are drawing dead on the perimeter. Dallas beat Oklahoma City three times in the regular season without Luka Dončić, but Kyrie Irving played in all three. Pick: Thunder in 5 vs. Grizzlies; Thunder in 5 vs. Mavericks
(4) Nuggets vs. (5) Clippers
This should be fun! This series features four players who, at least at one point, had a claim on the mantle of “best player in the league.” The Clippers closed the year 18-3, and their only losses in 17 games over the last month were close shaves against Oklahoma City and Cleveland. In a related story, they have Kawhi Leonard looking like That Guy again, hammering any smaller player on switches and ripping balls away from unsuspecting ballhandlers.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets have a three-time MVP in Nikola Jokić, who may claim a fourth trophy this spring, and an injury question of their own in Jamal Murray, whose hamstrings have surpassed his knees as the biggest concern. Denver’s awful bench is less of a factor in the playoffs than in the regular season, but it’s still a worry and drags down the Nuggets’ ceiling.
I have the Clips as the better team, but the game-within-the-game here is Ivica Zubac against Jokić. Zubac was low-key awesome this season, but he’s backed up by vapor; keeping him out of foul trouble so he can check Joker for 40 minutes is paramount for the Clippers’ chances. One other thing to watch is the sideline chess match: Nuggets interim coach David Adelman gets to match wits with one of the game’s premier in-series adjusters in Tyronn Lue.
Historically, No. 4 vs. No. 5 series have been pretty close to a coin toss. I expect the Clippers to prevail, but I expect to be entertained along the way. Pick: Clippers in 6
(3) Lakers vs. (6) Timberwolves
This, on paper, is the best first-round series, and by my numbers, the most evenly matched as well.
The most interesting facet of the series involves the Lakers and their continuing effort to incorporate Dončić. Despite some awesome individual games, his numbers as a Laker are down pretty sharply from Dallas, and L.A.’s stats with him and LeBron James together aren’t imposing (just a plus-2.0 net rating).
The Lakers went 18-10 with Dončić in the lineup, but that includes some brutal losses (Charlotte, Utah, Brooklyn, Chicago twice). Dončić perked up over the last few weeks, but his Lakers numbers are still a far cry from what he did the previous two seasons in Dallas; in particular, he’s only taken 10.9 percent of his shots at the rim as a Laker and has yet to dunk in an L.A. uniform.
The nice thing for L.A. is that the Wolves’ perimeter threats aren’t that threatening, affording the Lakers easy hiding spots for their bad individual wing defenders while they load everyone up for Anthony Edwards. (Seriously, I’m not sure how this could have worked out any better for the Lakers, with the Clippers and Nuggets sequestered in the other bracket.) Can they get away with playing Dorian Finney-Smith at center against Minnesota’s huge front line? Those lineups were key to L.A.’s success in the second half of the season.
The one meeting between these teams post-trade was a nine-point win by L.A. against a Wolves team missing Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle; I’m not sure that tells us a lot. What might tell us more is Minnesota’s struggles to handle Dončić in last year’s Western Conference finals. Between that and a schedule with multiple off days early in the series that should allow L.A. to ride its starters heavy minutes, I give L.A. the advantage.
Even as I say that, I hesitate: The Wolves are bigger, deeper and went 17-4 in their last 21 games. It shocks me that nobody is picking Minnesota. Either team is a credible conference finalist, but in the end, I’m going to ride with L.A.’s superior star power. Pick: Lakers in 7
(2) Rockets vs. (7) Warriors
The Rockets and Warriors played five times this season and the Warriors won three of them, but the last one might be the most indicative of what a playoff game will look like: a Mortal Kombat-style tussle in San Francisco that Houston won 106-96. Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson won their individual battles against Draymond Green and Stephen Curry that night, with Thompson completely erasing Curry.
Historically, No. 2 vs. No. 7 series haven’t gone well for the seventh seed, but this one might be an exception. The Warriors went 24-7 when Jimmy Butler played, and their season scoring margin (plus-3.3) wasn’t all that different from Houston’s (plus-4.5). My numbers, based on the lineups likely to play in this series, give the Warriors a slight advantage.
Either way, we’re going to learn a ton about the Rockets in the next two weeks, and that’s going to impact some crucial decisions around the corner. Is Şengün a go-to option against an elite defense who can produce points even against the likes of Draymond Green? Can Jalen Green be a consistent source of efficient shot creation against good defenses, or is he just the league’s best bad player? Does a Şengün-Steven Adams beast-ball frontcourt work against good teams? Can Thompson function offensively with limited shooting around him? Does Jabari Smith Jr. have a role in all this?
I have a lingering fear that the Rockets’ size, youth and athleticism might result in them ousting Golden State in five games, but they still have to put the ball in the basket against an elite defense, and I question how they can do that consistently. Between that and some Curry magic dust, I give the advantage to Golden State. Pick: Warriors in 6
Eastern Conference first round
(1) Cavaliers vs. (8) Heat or Hawks
Atlanta won consecutive games against Cleveland earlier this season, but that was with a healthy Jalen Johnson and before trading De’Andre Hunter to Cleveland. Based on the lineup Atlanta would take into a series with the Cavs, the Hawks appear seriously undermanned, especially in the frontcourt, where their lack of size has been glaring against big, physical squads. Possible returns by Larry Nance Jr. and/or Clint Capela would only slightly mitigate the situation.
Miami can hold up better defensively against the Cavs’ torrid offensive attack, but the Heat will struggle to generate points against Cleveland’s elite rim protectors. This will be quick either way, but the Heat have a better chance of stealing one. Pick: Cavaliers in 4 vs. Hawks; Cavaliers in 5 vs. Heat
(4) Pacers vs. (5) Bucks
The Bucks won three of the four regular-season meetings between these teams, but Damian Lillard played in all four of them, and Khris Middleton participated in one. With Lillard likely missing at least the beginning of the series due to blood clots (he returned to practice Thursday) and Middleton downgraded to Kyle Kuzma at the trade deadline, the Bucks are almost laughably dependent on Giannis Antetokounmpo’s greatness to drag them to victory.
I won’t entirely dismiss the chance of him pulling it off, especially if Kevin Porter Jr.’s late-season heater can continue for two more weeks and provide some secondary scoring. We also must consider Doc Rivers’ bizarre long-term trendline of seemingly coaching massively better when short-handed than with his full roster. On the other hand, the Bucks basically have no good wings, and without Lillard, the spacing around Giannis isn’t as threatening either.
Indiana, meanwhile, has slowly gained steam, as Tyrese Haliburton has become healthier and injected more pace into the offense. Indy doesn’t have a great matchup for Giannis, likely toggling between Myles Turner, Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin (fun wild card: Could they try Jarace Walker here?). However, I’m not sure it matters because they can run the Bucks into the ground with their superior bench and multiple offensive weapons. This would be a great series with a healthy Lillard; without him, it feels like a repeat of last year. Pick: Pacers in 6
(3) Knicks vs. (6) Pistons
Get ready for the single most lit arena of the postseason on April 24. That date is Game 3 of the Knicks-Pistons series, and Detroit, which has not won a playoff game since 2008, will quite possibly be looking to end one of the league’s most ignominious streaks in its first home game of the series. The last time the Pistons won a postseason game, Tom Thibodeau was an assistant coach for the other team. Sam Cassell played.
The Pistons’ surge from a 14-win tire fire of a season to the sixth seed in the East is an incredible story, even if it likely doesn’t end well in this series, and the locals will be fired up to revel in this unexpected taste of success. It helps that they have a feisty bunch to support; on any given night, the Pistons enthusiastically throw down with either the opponent, the refs or both.
The Knicks have two big, long wings to throw at Cade Cunningham with Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby, and the Pistons don’t have a lot of good answers for Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. Detroit can turn to Isaiah Stewart to help contain the Brunson-Towns two-man game, but that takes Jalen Duren’s lob threat and short-roll passing off the floor. Detroit coach J.B. Bickerstaff can toggle through multiple wing options, but all of them have limitations. He’ll want to redeem himself against Thibodeau after losing to his Knicks in five with Cleveland two years ago, but I’m not sure he has the cards.
Detroit’s best pathway to victory is if the Knicks start running out of players, but we’re early in the playoffs for that, and New York should benefit from the return of Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks have been fantastic against non-elite teams all season and should continue that trend. Pick: Knicks in 6
(2) Celtics vs. (7) Magic
Orlando actually won the season series 2-1, and if the Celtics start Baylor Scheierman, Torrey Craig and Luke Kornet like they did in their previous meeting, the Magic might have a chance.
Alas, the Celtics are champions for a reason and come off a 61-win season, while the Magic made history of their own by being the first non-winning division champion in league annals. Orlando is better than its record — star forwards Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero missed considerable time with oblique injuries, and the on-off splits were huge for Wagner in particular (a 12.1-point difference in net rating). Orlando is huge, young and finished second in defense, but the Magic have little shooting and struggle to generate easy looks unless they can mash opponents for second shots.
Historically, the Celtics have taken one game off every series, in between mercilessly pounding their opposition with 3-point bombs and an impenetrable switching defense, and Orlando’s size and intensity make it a bad team to try coasting against. That gets us to a five-game gentlemen’s sweep, but that’s where my Orlando optimism ends. Pick: Celtics in 5
West semifinals
(1) Thunder vs. (5) Clippers
I think the Clippers are the second-best team in the West and the most capable of knocking off the mighty Thunder in a playoff series. They were lights-out over the final six weeks with a healthy Leonard and have two All-Star-caliber supporting cast members in Harden and Zubac.
That said, generating points could be a bit of a slog given the Clippers’ limited shooting and secondary scoring. Alex Caruso held up well against Leonard in the teams’ late-season meeting in Los Angeles, won by Oklahoma City in a close shave thanks to Caruso’s late stop against Leonard, while Luguentz Dort can handle the Harden assignment.
The Clippers have a perfect foil for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Kris Dunn, but can he stay on the floor if the Thunder stop guarding him? On the other hand, this series will test what the Thunder have in shot creation around their MVP candidate, which is where they failed in this same round against Dallas a year ago.
I hope we get full-strength teams for this because it has the potential for a great series. But until we see Leonard make it through a postseason intact, it’s hard to feel good about picking the Clippers to make a deep run. Pick: Thunder in 6
(3) Lakers vs. (7) Warriors
This is ratings gold for the league’s TV partners, with these two flawed but star-driven teams benefiting from the softest playoff bracket in a virtual repeat of 2023. Last time, it was the seventh-seeded Lakers who prevailed, but this time, I think the seventh-seeded Warriors may have the advantage.
L.A. won the first three meetings in the regular season before trades overhauled both rosters. The Warriors won the most recent meeting in early April, and that result offers a taste of why they’re my pick here: Golden State outscored the Lakers in bench points 26-7, and the Warriors held Dončić to 6-of-17 shooting with the help of Draymond Green’s switchability.
The Warriors don’t have as much star power as L.A., but Curry isn’t chopped liver, and Butler historically has raised his game dramatically in the playoffs. Additionally, look at the rosters and the options. When I really started breaking down this series, it stuck out just how little optionality the Lakers have if Plan A doesn’t work. JJ Redick’s hands are tied by the fact that he only has four players he can trust, two of whom are absolute sieves in individual defense. Golden State, meanwhile, rolls 10 deep, to the point that it can afford to keep a perfectly decent player like Jonathan Kuminga on ice. The Warriors can play big or small, fast or slow, can iso-ball with Butler or run Curry off a zillion screens. They have their limitations, but this feels like a pretty good matchup for them. Pick: Warriors in 6
East semifinals
(1) Cavaliers vs. (4) Pacers
It hasn’t received much attention, but Indiana’s starting lineup has absolutely smoked the league: The Tyrese Haliburton-Andrew Nembhard-Aaron Nesmith-Pascal Siakam-Myles Turner unit has a net rating of plus-11.1, and that bumps to plus-11.9 when Bennedict Mathurin replaces Nesmith. That’s the best rating for any lineup with at least 225 minutes that doesn’t belong to Cleveland, Boston or Oklahoma City, and it threatens even the best marks from those teams.
Cleveland’s starters were dominant themselves, with a plus-12.5 margin, but we expect that from a 64-win team that had a double-digit margin on the season. Indy’s data, from a team with just a plus-2.2 margin overall, is a bit more surprising.
My point here is to wake you up a little: Indy started 16-18, and we kind of forgot about them, but the Pacers are good. They went 34-14 after the slow start, with Haliburton clicking into gear and energizing a fast-tempo offense that constantly wrongfoots opponents. As the Pacers showed against the Knicks and Celtics a year ago, they’re a hard team to play against, even with playoff prep and scouting.
Indiana won the season series 3-1, but that comes with an orca-sized asterisk since Cleveland played its scrubs in two losses in the season’s final week. Indy’s starters played against Cleveland’s backups in one of those games, and the Pacers still only won by two.
I dare not pick Indiana here; I think a lack of frontcourt depth, in particular, may prove the Pacers’ undoing against Cleveland’s size, and the Cavs’ offense may just be unstoppable. But if you’re expecting a walkover, think again: This will be a real series, and the Cavs will have to earn their spot in the conference finals. Pick: Cavaliers in 6
(2) Celtics vs. (3) Knicks
Hardcore Knicks followers already walk into a Boston series resigned to their fate after the Celtics beat New York in all four regular-season meetings, three of which were lopsided affairs. Boston’s five-out spacing seems designed for the specific purpose of humiliating Towns, while the Celtics’ switchable defense takes away Towns’ pick-and-pops and Brunson drives that fuel the Knicks’ normally elite offense.
New York can take some solace from the most recent meeting, when Boston needed overtime before prevailing, but the Celtics still got up 49 3-point attempts, including 13 from Kristaps Porziņģis, and Jaylen Brown was laboring through a sore knee. New York can likely ride the MSG crowd and Boston’s one-bad-game-per-series penchant to extend this to a gentlemen’s sweep, but beyond that, I expect the Celtics to quickly usher New York into what could be a bumpy offseason. Pick: Boston in 5
West finals
(1) Thunder vs. (7) Warriors
Remember two years ago, when the Lakers rode into the conference finals on the sugar high of a soft bracket and people thought they might actually beat the Nuggets? Get ready for the sequel, except this time it involves the Warriors.
Golden State won two of the three regular-season meetings with the Thunder, although none happened with Butler. I was at the first, a November win in Oklahoma City when Chet Holmgren was injured in the opening minutes, sucking the life out of the building, and Golden State got big games from De’Anthony Melton and Andrew Wiggins. That feels like another century ago.
On paper, this doesn’t feel like a great matchup for the Warriors’ offense. The Thunder have multiple “chase” defenders to throw at Curry, led by Dort and Caruso, and elite rim protection against Butler’s drives as long as one of Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein can stay ambulatory. They also force turnovers in waves, an especially pertinent issue for a Warriors team that might throw more wayward “what were you thinking?” passes than any club in the league.
If Golden State makes it a series, it will be by gumming up the Thunder attack. The Warriors don’t have a true SGA-stopper and would likely lean more on a smoke-and-mirrors approach of traps and laying off bad shooters, but if they can keep the Thunder in the half court, then the collective IQ of Green and Butler at least gives the Warriors a chance.
More likely, youth is served in this one. The Thunder just have too many weapons and are too hard to score against. It would be a pretty massive upset if they didn’t make it out of the West. Pick: Thunder in 5
East finals
(1) Cavaliers vs. (2) Celtics
And now for the hard part.
Picking a Cleveland-Boston meeting in the conference finals is easy; picking a winner once we get here is not. The Cavs and Celtics played four times this season, and each team won twice, with a net margin of one point separating them. Also, don’t overlook that Cleveland smoked Boston in Game 2 of last year’s second round behind a torrid Donovan Mitchell before his knees balked and the Cavs ran out of players.
This year’s version of the Cavs has a more confident Evan Mobley, more size and shooting with the addition of De’Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome floater magic fueling a productive second unit. One can fairly wonder about Mitchell’s ability to get through the postseason, but the Cavs kept him to just 31.4 minutes per night to help preserve him for this part, and Cleveland might only play 10 games or so in the month that precedes the conference finals.
Similar things can be said about Boston, with Brown nursing a sore knee, Al Horford nearing 39 and Porziņģis seemingly permanently questionable. I hate to say “it will just come down to injuries,” but as we saw in last year’s war-of-attrition called the Eastern Conference playoffs, it very well might.
For now, let’s assume it comes down to basketball. I give the Celtics the slightest of advantages, even with Cleveland having home court in a rubber match. Boston cruise-controlled through the regular season knowing it was planning on being back here, and a solid argument can be made that the Celtics’ regular-season numbers understate their peak strength.
The game-within-the-game here likely comes down to Boston’s ability to mash Cleveland’s small guards, and the Cavs’ ability to have those same guards score in switches against Boston’s bigs. Beyond that overarching big picture are wrinkles upon wrinkles thanks to the quality options available to both coaches, which should make for a fascinating chess match.
Prediction one: This will be the best series of the playoffs. Prediction two: Boston prevails, barely. Pick: Celtics in 7
NBA Finals
Thunder vs. Celtics
I’m not sure this is a great matchup for the Celtics; the Thunder worked them over in both regular-season matchups, with Porziņģis and Holmgren each missing one of them. As with the Cleveland series, Boston’s bigs’ ability to hold up in switches against elite guards feels like a key, except in this case, the ungraspable Gilgeous-Alexander adds another degree of difficulty. If the Thunder can force Boston to put two on the ball, the Celtics are in a very unnatural place; this isn’t a team built for trapping and forcing turnovers.
The Thunder, on the other hand, have multiple perimeter defenders to throw at Tatum and Brown, and their biggest defensive weakness — old-fashioned mash ball — seems like much more of an issue against, say, the Clippers or Nuggets, than it would be against Boston. (The best play you can run against Oklahoma City is missing a free throw.)
Big picture, I still struggle to pick against Oklahoma City. The Thunder’s biggest résumé shortcoming is that they haven’t proven they can win four playoff rounds, but that’s the same thing we thought about Boston in 2024 and Denver in 2023.
We have a hard time imagining things until they happen, even when there’s a lot of evidence punching us in the face. The Thunder won 68 games with the best scoring margin ever and have a much easier pathway than the other two dominant teams this season since Boston and Cleveland must play each other.
Either the Celtics or Cavs would make for a worthy adversary in an entertaining NBA Finals, but still … if the Thunder fail to win the title, that’s the story. I picked Boston over Oklahoma City at the start of the season, but it’s time to pivot and anoint the Thunder. Get used to it, because this could be the first of several. Pick: Thunder in 6
(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; top photos: Thearon W. Henderson, Lachlan Cunningham, Katelyn Mulcahy / Getty Images)
