Get ready for a high-stakes clash this afternoon at Wrigley Field, where the Cubs look to flex their offensive muscle against a Diamondbacks squad riding a hot streak. Can the Cubs get it done at home? They’re fresh off a series win at the current world champs’ crib and a series loss to the Padres’ nightclub-in-April atmosphere at PetCo. And the Diamondbacks are, like, not even close to slouches. This Wrigley homestand begins with a boss fight. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday baseball game between the Cubs and the Diamondbacks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
The Cubs enter this matchup as the underdog, but Arizona’s recent struggles against strong competition and their reliance on inconsistent pitching lead me to favor Chicago here. Corbin Burnes (0-1, 5.28 ERA) gets the start for Arizona, and while he has solid career numbers, his season stats don’t inspire confidence. His strikeouts are down, and he’s been giving up earned runs at an uncharacteristic rate. On the flip side, the Cubs will send Colin Rea (4.14 ERA) to the mound, and while he’s not a lights-out ace, his ERA is a touch lower than Burnes’, and his control has been more solid, leading to fewer walks and baserunners.
Beyond the pitchers, Chicago’s offense has been the juggernaut of the MLB this season, ranking first in runs scored, fourth in home runs, and seventh in batting average. Kyle Tucker is in scorching form, leading the team with five home runs and 19 RBIs, and Carson Kelly, one of the most consistent hitters, is batting .407 with four home runs. Pete Crow-Armstrong is also in the midst of a productive stretch, batting .259 with six doubles, a triple, and three home runs over his last few games. His bat has been a key part of the Cubs’ ability to put runs on the board, and he’s been a consistent contributor in scoring situations. Meanwhile, Michael Busch, who’s shown he can hit right-handed pitching effectively this year, adds another layer of depth to an offense that’s already been incredibly productive.
Arizona’s offense, led by Corbin Carroll and Josh Naylor, has been on fire, ranking in the top five in the league for home runs and runs scored. Carroll’s .329 average and six home runs, combined with his 16 RBIs, make him a constant threat at the plate. Naylor’s been equally impressive, batting .328 with six doubles and three home runs. However, while the Diamondbacks’ offense is on a hot streak, their lineup still lacks consistency in clutch situations, especially with Eugenio Suarez’s struggles (hitting just .159). Their reliance on a few hot hitters like Carroll and Naylor can sometimes lead to lulls when they aren’t firing on all cylinders, and that’s where Chicago’s balance and depth might exploit Arizona’s potential for a cold spell.
When you add in the Diamondbacks’ struggles against quality teams and their shaky bullpen (currently ranked 23rd in the MLB with a 4.61 ERA), I’m leaning toward the Cubs here, even though Arizona has the better overall record. Chicago’s offense is a serious threat, and with their ability to capitalize on Arizona’s pitching vulnerabilities, the Cubs’ chances of pulling this one off look solid.
As for the total, with these two offenses firing on all cylinders—particularly the Cubs, who have gone over the total in six of their last ten games—the over is definitely worth considering. But overall, the Cubs’ better offense and the Diamondbacks’ recent pitching concerns leave me favoring Chicago to win this one, despite the Diamondbacks’ strong start to the season.
Bear beats snake in the battle of offenses; tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
