The 2025 NBA play-in tournament wraps up Friday night with four teams vying for the final two spots in the playoffs.
First, the Miami Heat (-1.5, 218.5) head north to play the Atlanta Hawks. Then, the Memphis Grizzlies (-6.5, 220.5) host the Dallas Mavericks. Both games figure to be hotly contested, as the winners earn the No. 8 seed in their respective conferences and the losers head home for a long offseason.
Here are some of the bets that stand out for Friday’s games.
Odds are as of publication time. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET
Bets for Friday
Davion Mitchell over 16.5 points and assists (-105)
Mitchell has cleared this line in seven of his past 10 games, averaging 9.0 field goal attempts and 11.9 potential assists in 32.0 minutes over that time frame. He’s also cleared this line in each of his past two games against the Hawks. Mitchell’s an elite on-ball defender and will be tasked with slowing down Trae Young. That should lead to heavy minutes. Mitchell’s cleared this line in 61% of the games he’s played 32 or more minutes this season.
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Trae Young over 11.5 assists (+105)
Young has cleared this line in three of four games against the Heat this season, averaging 19.0 potential assists per game in those matchups. Young hasn’t shot the ball particularly well against Miami, so expect him to focus more on acting as a facilitator. The Heat also rank fifth in assists allowed to point guards this season. Young should play heavy minutes in a win-or-go-home scenario and has hit this line in 64% of the games this season in which he’s played 36 or more minutes.
Dallas Mavericks +6.5 (-115)
Anthony Davis continues to prove why he’s one of the top bigs in the league — when he’s on the floor, he’s a difference-maker. The Mavericks have a 6-3 record in games he’s played and a net rating of +1.6. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have been tough to trust this season, especially against quality opponents. Dallas has the more physical frontcourt with Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, and defensively, the Mavericks been more consistent. Davis has also had Jaren Jackson Jr.’s number over the past three seasons, as he has averaged 28.2 PPG and 14.3 RPG across six games. He’s set up for another big night along with the Mavericks.
Brandon Williams over 11.5 points and assists (-110)
Williams has become a key part of the Mavericks’ rotation, earning a standard contract and postseason eligibility. Williams played 17 minutes against the Kings on Wednesday, as Spencer Dinwiddie‘s late-season struggles led head coach Jason Kidd to pull him from the rotation. When Williams plays at least 16 minutes, he’s cleared this line in 15 of 16 games this season.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
7 p.m. ET
Line: Heat -1.5 (EVEN) | Hawks +1.5 (-120)
Money line: Heat -115 | Hawks -105
Total: 218.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Hawks by 1.3, straight up 54%, 221.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Heat: Kevin Love, (GTD – Personal); Nikola Jovic, (GTD – Hand); Pelle Larsson, (GTD – Ankle); Dru Smith, (OFS – Achilles)
Hawks: Trae Young, (GTD – Achilles); Clint Capela, (OUT – Hand); Larry Nance Jr., (OUT – Knee); Jalen Johnson, (OFS – Shoulder); Kobe Bufkin, (OFS – Shoulder)
Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies
9:30 p.m. ET
Line: Mavericks +6.5 (-115) | Grizzlies -6.5 (-105)
Money line: Mavericks +210 | Grizzlies -250
Total: 220.5 (-115 O, -105 U)
BPI Projection: Grizzlies by 4.4, straight up 64%, 233.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Anthony Davis, (GTD – Groin); Brandon Williams, (GTD – Oblique); Olivier-Maxence Prosper, (OFS – Wrist)
Grizzlies: Ja Morant, (GTD – Ankle); Brandon Clarke, (OFS – Knee); Jaylen Wells, (OFS – Wrist)
