Sports Mole previews Tuesday’s Barcelona Open first-round match between Karen Khachanov and Cameron Norrie, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.
Flying the flag high for Great Britain at the Barcelona Open, Cameron Norrie‘s reward for coming through qualifying is a first-round showdown with Russia’s Karen Khachanov on Tuesday.
The former British number one is bidding to earn his first main-draw victory in over a month, while Khachanov only has five wins to his name during a problematic start to the 2025 season.
Match preview
© Imago
Barcelona was the site of a milestone victory for Norrie this time last year, as the former Wimbledon semi-finalist became just the eighth British man to claim 200 wins on the ATP Tour en route to the quarter-finals, where Tomas Martin Etcheverry ended his progression.
Norrie’s achievements have been modest ever since, as the former world number eight – who has now slipped down to world number 88 – has not reached a top-level final since November’s Moselle Open and only boasts a mediocre 7-8 record for the season.
Struggling to return to the peak of his powers after his forearm injury in mid 2024, Norrie is on a miserable three-match losing streak in main-draw contests, going out in the first round of the Miami Open after an opening Challenger loss in Cap Cana and third-round Indian Wells defeat to Tommy Paul.
The 29-year-old’s Monte-Carlo Masters also ended extremely prematurely as he fell to Mattia Bellucci in his first-round qualifier, but the British counter-puncher finally has confidence on his side again thanks to a pair of preliminary successes in Barcelona already.
After thrashing Hugo Gaston 6-2 6-3 in his opening qualifier, Norrie’s tie-break powers came to the fore as he defeated Bosnia-Herzegovina’s Damir Dzumhur 7-6[5] 7-6[6] to earn his spot in the main draw, where his opponent Khachanov has a few wrongs to right.
© Imago
While Norrie’s 7-8 record for the season is hardly awe-inspiring, Khachanov comes into the first-round tie with an even worse total of five wins and eight losses in 2025 so far, and he has only prevailed in three contests since the conclusion of the Australian Open.
One of those did come against a British foe in the shape of Dan Evans in Dubai, which preceded opening victories in both Indian Wells and Miami over Jakub Mensik and Nick Kyrgios respectively, only for him to fall at the next hurdle both times.
Khachanov’s Monte-Carlo run was short-lived too, as despite forcing a deciding set in his second-round showdown with compatriot Daniil Medvedev, the world number 27 was bested 5-7 6-4 4-6 at the conclusion of a two-hour and 52-minute marathon.
The two Russians shared a staggering 17 breaks of serve throughout the clay contest, but Khachanov’s first-serve inferiority proved fatal, as he only won 52% of such points compared to Medvedev’s 73% en route to his first opening-round Masters defeat since 2022.
The two-time Grand Slam semi-finalist is also yet to contest an ATP Tour singles final on clay – reaching all 10 of his showpiece events so far on hard courts – and whoever prevails in this battle may have to get the better of Frances Tiafoe to book their ticket to the quarter-finals.
Head To Head
Monte-Carlo Masters (2024) – First round: Khachanov wins 7-5 7-6[3]
French Open (2022) – Third round: Khachanov wins 6-2 7-5 5-7 6-4
Rotterdam Open (2022) – Last 16: Norrie wins 6-4 7-6[5]
Canadian Open (2021) – First round: Khachanov wins 6-4 5-7 6-4
Lyon Open (2021) – Semi-finals: Norrie wins 6-1 6-1
Barcelona Open (2021) – Second round: Norrie wins 6-4 3-6 6-3
Rotterdam Open (2021) – Last 16: Khachanov wins 6-2 6-2
Familiar foes at the top level of tennis, Norrie and Khachanov have clashed on seven previous occasions on the ATP Tour, and the Russian just edges the head-to-head wins counter with four victories to the Briton’s three.
Khachanov has prevailed in their last two showdowns – both of which coincidentally came on clay at the 2022 French Open and 2024 Monte-Carlo Masters – but Norrie came up trumps in their only previous Barcelona battle.
The world number 88 survived a second-set scare to conquer Khachanov 6-4 3-6 6-3 at the 2021 edition, just a few weeks before also thrashing the Russian 6-1 6-1 on the clay courts of Lyon in the semi-finals, although Stefanos Tsitsipas then broke Norrie’s heart in the final.
We say: Khachanov to win in three sets
The momentum is no doubt with Norrie after his qualifying successes, and even in his last two losses to Khachanov, the 29-year-old gave the Russian a good run for his money and is adept at frustrating opponents during long rallies.
Clay can sometimes bring out the best in the former British number one, but after Khachanov’s gutsy display against Medvedev, he still has our vote to advance to round two.
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