CLEVELAND, Ohio — Let the debate begin.
Once again, the NBA league office gave me an official ballot for end-of-season awards. It’s a responsibility that I take seriously, spending countless hours watching League Pass, conducting research, creating spreadsheets, taking furious notes and making calls and texts to people in and around the NBA, hoping to hear a different viewpoint that can better inform my own decision-making.
There were three rules: Each ballot, populated with the eligible candidates, needed to be filled out in its entirety. No splitting votes. The deadline was Tuesday evening at 6 p.m.
Awards voting is an inexact science. There’s no metric that makes the difference. Quantifying impact isn’t easy — even with numerous advanced stats that appear to be just a bunch of letters randomly tossed together to form a bizarre acronym. Then again, if NBA teams consider them important why wouldn’t voters? Individual greatness plays a part. Team success does as well. Numbers tell a story, but not always the entire one, which means the eye test is also involved.
Nearly every category was fiercely competitive. Given how many impressive — and historic — seasons there were, multiple deserving players will likely feel “snubbed.” My ballot is not a reflection of who is the better player, it’s about rewarding the better season.
These are my official choices:
MVP
1. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
3. Jayson Tatum, Celtics
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
5. Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers
The first four players are straightforward. The only debate is the order, starting with the top spot.
Jokic or Gilgeous-Alexander?
Both have compelling cases. Both are worthy recipients. Some of the advanced metrics point to Jokic while others are more favorable for SGA. Jokic’s historically unique numbers (the third player ever to average a triple-double for a full season and first to finish top 3 in points, rebounds and assists per game) and bonkers on-off differential give him the edge. The Nuggets outscored opponents by 594 points with him on the court and were outscored by 275 with him off. They couldn’t function — at either end of the floor — without him.
That’s value.
The fifth spot came down to Mitchell, Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham and Tyrese Haliburton. Don’t laugh. Haliburton’s advanced stats are eye-popping. LeBron should probably get bonus points for the level of consistent play at his age. But Mitchell’s intangibles — leadership, sacrifice, willingness to empower teammates and influence — are at the core of Cleveland’s organizational ascension. There’s no way to fully quantify that — even if the statistical profile doesn’t stack up with other candidates.
Defensive Player of the Year
1. Evan Mobley, Cavaliers
2. Dyson Daniels, Hawks
3. Draymond Green, Warriors
This was the hardest category — by far. That’s what happens when the lone no-brainer choice on the entire ballot — Victor Wembanyama — becomes ineligible because of a scary blood clot issue that kept him from meeting the 65-game threshold.
Five players have a legitimate case. Apologies to Oklahoma City stopper Lu Dort and Houston’s Amen Thompson. There isn’t enough room.
I was tempted to recognize someone from Oklahoma City — the league’s No. 1 defense by a wide margin. Alex Caruso, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein — all of whom rank top 20 in defensive estimated plus-minus — aren’t eligible. Dort is — and he repeatedly takes the toughest defensive assignments, holding those premier players below their league average in points and efficiency.
Only it feels like the Thunder success is a team thing, without one (eligible) standout.
Despite belief to the contrary about Green’s worthiness, this is far from a podcast push. Green, the brainy nerve center of the league’s seventh-ranked defense, has intriguing advanced numbers — all designed to measure impact and value.
He ranks in the 95th percentile in stop percentage — steals, offensive fouls drawn and blocks per 100 possessions, all combined into one category.
He is also in the 94th percentile in total field goal percentage difference, the 96th percentile in total points saved per 100 possessions, the 90th percentile in rim points saved per 100 possessions and the 99th percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus. Beyond that, he is among the league leaders in estimated RAPTOR, defensive box plus-minus, defensive rating, xRAPM, D-LEBRON and Defensive Net Points Per 100 Possessions. Oh, and the Warriors finished seventh in total defense.
Daniels is the first player in more than three decades to average three steals and he finished this campaign with an astronomical 443 deflections, nearly 200 more than the next highest player, earning him the nickname Great Barrier Thief — a nod to his Australian roots.
But Mobley, the two-time Eastern Conference Defensive Player of the Month who also resides in the top 20 in a plethora of advanced metrics, has been the most consistent and impactful from start to finish.
He ranks fifth in total blocks with 113, behind just Wembanyama, Milwaukee’s Brook Lopez, Indiana’s Myles Turner and Jazz youngster Walker Kessler. Mobley is the only player in the NBA this season averaging at least 1.5 blocks on two fouls or less. He ranks fifth in contested shots per game and second in field goal percentage allowed on shots defended within five feet (a minimum of 1,000 field goal attempts). When Mobley is on the court, Cleveland has a 111.7 defensive rating, which ranks 7th in the NBA. Without him, that number drops to 114.3 — in the league’s bottom half.
His versatility allows Cleveland to stylistically function in a specific way and his sheer presence changes how opponents are willing to attack. He can protect the paint and guard out on the perimeter. Ask Bogdan Bogdanovic about the shadow Mobley casts that keeps some from even attempting shots in his orbit.
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Sixth Man of the Year
1. Ty Jerome, Cavaliers
2. Payton Pritchard, Celtics
3. Malik Beasley, Pistons
This list started with five names — Jerome, Pritchard, Beasley, Naz Reid and De’Andre Hunter — before getting trimmed to three.
Pritchard became a reliable second-unit sparkplug for the Eastern Conference’s second-best team. He led all bench players in points, 3-pointers made (some of Beasley’s came as a part-time starter) and plus-minus, with the Celtics outscoring opponents by nearly 10 points per 100 possessions with Pritchard as the second unit linchpin.
Won’t be a surprise if he wins this award.
But I saw — and felt — the efficient nightly impact made by Jerome and how he contributed to this team’s swaggy identity.
Averaging career-highs in points, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, true shooting percentage and steals, Jerome’s renaissance played a critical role in the Cavs becoming one of the best offenses in NBA history. The true definition of a game-changer, Jerome ranked fifth on the team in scoring while becoming the first player ever (since the 3-point line was introduced in 1979-80) to average at least 11 points and one steal while shooting 50% from the field, 40% from beyond the arc and 85% from the foul line off the bench in a single season.
Others in this category might have had a bigger workload or even more responsibility. Just imagine what Jerome’s numbers would’ve looked like if he received more than 19.9 minutes per game.
Coach of the Year
1. Kenny Atkinson, Cavaliers
2. J.B. Bickerstaff, Pistons
3. Tyronn Lue, Clippers
Atkinson vs. Bickerstaff vs. Lue. The basketball gods have quite a sense of humor. Bickerstaff did exactly what he has for most of his coaching career — yank a team out of the rebuild rubble and elevate it back to respectability. He instilled a culture, taught a young team discipline and gave it an identity. Still, going from bad to good is easier than good to great. Atkinson’s fingerprints are all over the Cleveland leap, with him reconfiguring the offense, getting players to buy in, unshackling Mobley, reassigning roles, altering rotations and changing the on-court spacing so the Mobley-Jarrett Allen combination wasn’t as offensively wonky.
With the Clippers projected to win around 35 games following Paul George’s departure and then finishing 50-32, good for the West’s fifth seed, Lue barely nudged out Houston’s Ime Udoka.
Rookie of the Year
1. Stephon Castle, Spurs
2. Jaylen Wells, Grizzlies
3. Zaccharie Risacher, Hawks
This wasn’t a very good class. Philadelphia youngster Jared McCain was the clear frontrunner before a December knee injury ripped away his chances.
That allowed Castle to pull in front, almost by default. Castle not only guarded elite perimeter scoring threats, but he shouldered a hefty offensive responsibility, especially in the aftermath of season-ending injuries to Wembanyama and point guard De’Aaron Fox.
Most Improved Player
1. Dyson Daniels, Hawks
2. Christian Braun, Nuggets
3. Ivica Zubac, Clippers
Full disclosure: I don’t know the best way to approach this award. On one hand, assuming that every young, highly-drafted player will emerge as a star like Detroit’s Cade Cunnigham and Cleveland’s Mobley is dangerous. But with plenty of past success and clear promise, it’s at least fair to wonder how much of that improvement from those two in particular is tied to the natural progression of young players who always appeared to have star qualities. I ignored most of those candidates and tried to focus elsewhere.
Braun and Daniels caused me to go back and forth. I almost put Braun at the top.
Despite questions about his readiness to replace departed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on a win-now roster, Braun became a capable three-level scorer with his true shooting percentage increasing by 11 points and an estimated plus-minus that skyrocketed into the 90th percentile.
Nonetheless, Daniels went from getting DNPs to one of the league’s most disruptive perimeter defenders. A change of scenery and all-around improvement led to career-highs in points, rebounds, assists, field goal percentage and 3-point accuracy while also showing the capability of handling a bigger offensive role.
Clutch Player
1. Jalen Brunson, Knicks
2. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
3. Darius Garland, Cavaliers
Brunson. Jokic. Garland. Haliburton. Trae Young.
That was the list.
Despite missing time with an injury that put his eligibility in question, Bruson scored 156 points in the clutch while also shooting 51.5% from the field. And he did it while taking the fourth-most shots of anyone — nearly double the amount as Garland.
Although the Cavs were the league’s second-best clutch team, that number speaks more to the collective than just one entity.
All-NBA First Team
1. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
3. Jayson Tatum, Celtics
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
5. Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers
All-NBA Second Team
1. LeBron James, Lakers
2. Stephen Curry, Warriors
3. Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers
4. Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves
5. Evan Mobley, Cavaliers
All-NBA Third Team
1. Jalen Brunson, Knicks
2. Cade Cunningham, Pistons
3. Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks
4. Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
5. Alperen Sengun, Rockets
I do the same thing every year: Take my MVP quintet and rewrite those names for All-NBA First Team, provided there are no positional parameters. Then I look at my leftover MVP candidates and start there for the second team.
The final spot on second team was between Mobley and Cunningham, with Mobley getting the nod — slightly — because of his two-way dominance. Then came the third team, which became tougher to fill with Wembanyama, Anthony Davis, Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, Franz Wagner, Kawhi Leonard, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving and Jimmy Butler being ineligible.
All-Defense First Team
1. Evan Mobley, Cavaliers
2. Dyson Daniels, Hawks
3. Draymond Green, Warriors
4. Lu Dort, Thunder
5. Amen Thompson, Rockets
All-Defense Second Team
1. Ivica Zubac, Clippers
2. Toumani Camara, Trail Blazers
3. Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
4. Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves
5. Jalen Williams, Thunder
I wanted to put Los Angeles Clippers nuisance Kris Dunn on my second team — until I realized he didn’t qualify. That paved the way for Williams, another dogged Oklahoma City defender.
Gobert, Jackson and Zubac all serve as defensive anchors for top 10 units headed to the postseason. Camara guarded everyone, no matter the position. He ranked in the 98th percentile or higher in matchup difficulty and perimeter isolation defense. Only six other players accomplished that, including Dort and Daniels.
All-Rookie First Team
1. Stephon Castle, Spurs
2. Jaylen Wells, Grizzlies
3. Zaccharie Risacher, Hawks
4. Zach Edey, Grizzlies
5. Kel’El Ware, Heat
All-Rookie Second Team
1. Alex Sarr, Wizards
2. Isaiah Collier, Jazz
3. Matas Buzelis, Bulls
4. Donovan Clingan, Trail Blazers
5. Yves Missi, Pelicans
With the dearth of rookie talent and constantly fluctuating roles, it was harder to find 10 who were worthy of filling out the ballot. The most worthwhile debate: the final spot on the first team between Ware and Buzelis, who nearly bumped Ware thanks to an expanded role during Chicago’s post-deadline surge.
