Canada’s NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh. Photo by Artur Widak/Anadolu via Getty Images
Even before the federal election was called in March, the future looked grim for Canada’s left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP). Polls had them at an average of 11 per cent as voters polarised between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives around two central questions: who is best suited to handle Donald Trump, and who best represented the change so many wanted.
On the eve of election day, the NDP average was 9 per cent, meaning the party is at risk of losing most of the 24 seats they held at the dissolution of parliament. They’re at risk of losing official party status, heading for single digits in a House of Commons recently updated to 343 seats. This could be its worst electoral showing since 1993 or, perhaps, ever.
An electoral drubbing for the NDP would not just be devastating for the party, but also bad for the country. In the last parliament, leader Jagmeet Singh and the NDP forced the Liberal minority government under Justin Trudeau to expand the country’s welfare system through prescription drug care, dental care, and daycare programmes. It delivered a long-sought anti-scab law — prohibiting employers from using replacement workers during a strike — and paid sick days for workers in federally regulated industries. During the pandemic, the NDP fought for more generous support for those who’d lost their job or seen their income drop. Throughout the Singh years, the NDP has provided a left opposition to liberal – and Liberal – politics. It’s been an imperfect one, but an opposition nonetheless.
Now Canada faces significant economic risks from Trump and his tariff war. With 75 per cent of the country’s trade going stateside and a relationship worth $1 trillion a year at risk, entire industries are worried about their long-term viability. In the shorter term, Canadian workers worry about a recession, and Trump’s threats to make the country its “cherished 51st state”. Meanwhile, both Poilievre and Carney are talking about cuts to the federal budget. It seems like a good time to have the NDP around, at the very least to check the worst instincts of the Liberals, who are favoured to win.
In recent weeks, Singh dropped the pretense that he was running for prime minister and switched to messaging focused on the need for a strong NDP presence in the legislature to keep the government honest and to deliver the goods for poor people and workers. The value proposition he offered was an honest one. The party has long been derisively called “Liberals in a hurry” or the conscience of the Liberal party, but despite its muted class politics and domination by the consultant class, the NDP has fought for and won material improvements for the working class, even if it failed to deliver broader structural change, a boost to social movements, or even electoral growth.
The best hope for the NDP is a minority parliament, a possibility in a race that’s been close between the front runners. Minority parliaments have been common in Canada in recent years. From 2004 to 2024, the country held seven general elections, five of which produced a minority. A sixth – and third in a row – is not out of the question.
A left-wing party with fewer seats under a minority government is more useful than one with more seats under a majority, if they are neither the government nor the official opposition. One hitch, however, is the Quebec-based Bloc Québécois — they will almost certainly finish ahead of the NDP in seat count, meaning a minority government leader would have a handful of dance partners to choose from.
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Majority or minority parliament aside, if the NDP is reduced from two-dozen seats to fewer than 12, Singh – who is at risk of losing his own seat – will face immense pressure to resign. Indeed, a movement to replace him is already brewing. Still, days before election day Singh insisted he had no regrets about not bringing down the government last autumn when he ended his party’s supply and confidence agreement with the Liberals. Around that time, the NDP was higher in the polls and, at one point, even ahead of the Liberals in some polls. But as well as the NDP was doing relative to the Liberals, the Conservatives were then headed for a massive majority win as Trudeau clung to power and a Trump return was still theoretical. Singh said he “couldn’t stomach” the idea of Poilievre winning, and he wanted to secure dental and prescription drug programmes – which he did.
There’s no doubt that the NDP strategy during the last parliament delivered policy wins for the left, but those advancements haven’t translated into electoral advantage. Some in the party seemed to truly believe that by cooperating with the Liberals, they could demonstrate to the country they were ready to govern, coming to the table for the 2025 election with a track record of success. They misread, misunderstood, or ignored the long history of cooperative junior parties in parliamentary democracies who are rewarded for their efforts with a hearty thanks for the memories and a shove out the door. One wonders if anyone in the party might have googled “Nick Clegg”.
Whether the NDP ends up with four seats or an even dozen in a majority parliament, they will be a severely diminished, if not decimated, force. In a minority, there is some hope of modest influence, but there is a risk of a repeat of the last go ‘round, which helped deliver the dire straits they find themselves in now. While the party can place some of the blame for their collapse on events – Trudeau’s resignation, Trump’s win – they can’t blame them for their own strategic shortcomings and failure to build a party capable of seizing a moment of widespread anxiety and frustration with the status quo. As unwelcome as their electoral wipeout would be, if it is to happen, it would at least allow for – indeed, demand – an ideological, strategic, and tactical overhaul. That would be very welcome indeed.
[See more: Mark Carney can’t save Canada]
