Analysis: Can Brighton beat Newcastle for third time this season?

Football writer Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 35.

Team analysis: Brighton & Hove Albion v Newcastle United

Brighton have beaten Newcastle twice already this season, so the Seagulls are chasing an impressive hat-trick when hosting the Magpies this Sunday.

If they win their home meeting, after the two away victories at St James’ Park in the Premier League and FA Cup, it would be the first time Brighton have ever defeated the same team three times in one season as a top-flight side.

The stakes are high for both this weekend.

Newcastle are in third place and desperate to stay inside the top five, while Fabian Hurzeler’s Brighton believe they can still finish high enough to earn European football in 2025/26.

Why Newcastle struggle away from home

No Premier League side has won more matches since 14 December than Newcastle, who have out come on top in 14 of their last 19 games.

Yet their away form against top-half opponents is surprisingly poor.

A 3-1 win at Nottingham Forest is their only victory in eight matches so far against their fellow top-11 sides.

Newcastle away results v other top 11 clubs

Opponents Result / Fixture Liverpool L 2-0 Arsenal 18 May Man City L 4-0 Chelsea L 2-1 Nottingham Forest W 3-1 Aston Villa L 4-1 Fulham L 3-1 Brighton 4 May Bournemouth D 1-1 Brentford L 4-2 Newcastle have conceded 2.6 goals per game across those eight matches and this poor return will certainly provide ninth-placed Brighton with the belief that they can again cause Eddie Howe‘s side problems.

What’s behind Newcastle’s struggle?

Slow starts have been a recurring theme for Newcastle on the road at the division’s toughest opponents.

Remarkably, they have fallen behind in all eight away matches when they have faced sides in the current top 11.

Worryingly for Howe, seven of those early concessions came before the 22nd minute.

If Hurzeler’s Brighton start Sunday’s match quickly, they could catch their opponents cold once again.

When Newcastle go 1-0 down v other teams in top 11

Opposition Minute of first goal Aston Villa (A) 1 min Fulham (A) 5 mins Brentford (A) 8 mins Liverpool (A) 11 mins Chelsea (A) 18 mins Man City (A) 19 mins Nottingham Forest (A) 21 mins Bournemouth (A) 37 mins There has been a sluggishness about the Magpies early on in away games, and they have been ruthlessly punished for lapses in concentration.

Howe’s back four has become fragmented too easily by longer passes early on in games.

Manchester City undid them with real ease from an Ederson goal-kick, releasing Omar Marmoush to open the scoring (shown below).

In Newcastle’s chastening 4-2 defeat at Brentford, the hosts played out from a goal-kick, moving the ball into midfield, before a lofted, switched pass to Bryan Mbeumo caused panic in the Newcastle defence.

The Magpies lost their shape and left-back Lewis Hall became detached from the rest of the back four as Mbeumo went on to score (see below).

The Seagulls are not averse to going direct with their distribution at the right times under Hurzeler. This is a tactic we can expect to see them use on Sunday.

They enjoyed success in that manner in the 1-0 win at St James’ Park earlier on this season.

A quickly-taken Lewis Dunk free-kick pushed the Newcastle defence backwards, and Danny Welbeck’s subsequent one-two with Georginio Rutter unlocked the door.

How did Brighton beat Newcastle twice this season?

Hurzeler has triumphed over the Magpies in two differing ways, so his chosen approach for Matchweek 35 could be difficult to predict.

It was a resilient backs-to-the-wall defensive display that helped them secure a 1-0 victory in the Premier League last October.

They had just 40.1 per cent of possession, were pushed back at will, and were reliant on Newcastle missing chances, as well as Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen’s outstanding display, to claim the points.

Playing on the counter, Brighton did carve out four big chances, but as you can see from these match stats below, it was not a game they had any control of.

Newcastle 0-1 Brighton PL match stats

Brighton’s 2-1 extra-time win in the FA Cup was earned via a different strategic approach.

In that contest, the Seagulls played an expansive game, boasting a lot more possession than they had on their previous visit.

They made it a far more open affair, being less compact. Ultimately, that seemed to suit them as they racked up 21 shots and 45 touches inside the Newcastle box.

Newcastle 1-2 Brighton FA Cup match stats

By making it an end-to-end contest, Brighton were able to find more spaces to run into.

This suited Yankuba Minteh, who sprinted in beyond Newcastle’s exposed high line to latch onto Joao Pedro’s through-ball and score against his former club.

Howe’s defence was also caught square and looked rather disjointed as Welbeck scored the winning goal.

The striker’s movement to show for a Solly March pass was excellent, but with Tino Livramento playing him onside from right-back, it was not a goal the Newcastle head coach would have been pleased about.

The Seagulls have plenty of pace in the wide areas, as well as good movement in the centre-forward positions.

Having used those qualities to great effect in those previous meetings, Brighton will be well aware that all three goals scored against the EFL Cup winners came via forward passes that pierced a square back four.

The space that style creates will suit Brighton’s quick forwards, even if making it an open attack-minded game comes with plenty of risk against a team as free-scoring as Newcastle.

It is a ploy Hurzeler may well turn to again at the AMEX Stadium, as Brighton look to complete a famous treble.