The PGA Tour heads to Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., for its crown jewel golf tournament, The Players Championship. The unofficial fifth major championship sports the largest purse on the PGA Tour and features the strongest field outside of major championships. The 144 players that will be teeing it up this week will find a Stadium Course that has been lengthened and changed a bit in a bid to Scottie-proof it.
Scottie Scheffler pulled off the almost unbelievable feat of winning The Players Championship for the second consecutive year in 2024 by shooting 20-under on a course that can give the best in the world fits. While Scheffler won at 20-under, I think the hierarchy of the PGA Tour was more surprised that three players tied for second at 19-under.
Scheffler is once again the betting favorite heading into this week, but he hasn’t quite put it all together this year. Rory McIlroy looked distracted at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he struggled with his irons and wedge game. I don’t blame him for being distracted by all the questions about the negotiations between LIV Golf and the PGA Tour. It can be exhausting when there doesn’t seem to be any movement, even with all of the effort being put forth by the PGA Tour. With Scottie not quite being Scottie and Rory looking a little bit off with his irons at a place where he needs to be precise, we should have someone else winning this week.
Russell Henley won the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a few miracle shots and a bit of a letdown from Collin Morikawa. It’s Henley’s biggest win to date. I really like the team he is forming with Jimmy Walker’s former caddie, Andrew Sanders. Sanders is an incredible caddie who seems to be getting the best from Henley’s game. I think Henley might have a bit of a letdown this week and will be avoiding him for the most part, but some others who contended at the Arnold Palmer Invitational will be on my rosters and betting card.
My model this week will focus on strokes gained on approach, strokes gained on approach from a few different distance buckets, strokes gained on Pete Dye golf courses and double-bogey avoidance. Players will make bogeys this week, but they will also make birdies. They will need to avoid the big numbers to be able to contend.
The weather looks good for Thursday and Friday but harsher conditions are in store for the weekend. The fairways aren’t particularly hard to hit, but positioning is key as Pete Dye likes to trick the eye into believing targets are in one spot, but while the correct play is somewhere else. The greens are fast but not particularly difficult to putt on.
The Players Championship odds
Course information
Course: TPC Sawgrass
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Designer: Pete Dye
Par: 72
Length: 7,352 Yards
Average green size: 5,500 square feet
Past champions: 2024 and 2023 Scottie Scheffler, 2022 Cameron Smith, 2021 Justin Thomas, 2019 Rory McIlroy, 2018 Webb Simpson, 2017 Si Woo Kim, 2016 Jason Day, 2015 Rickie Fowler
Betting slip
Collin Morikawa (+1400) gained over 12 strokes from tee to green at the Arnold Palmer Invitational but just couldn’t make enough putts on the weekend to hold off Russell Henley. He has not been able to make enough putts at TPC Sawgrass to contend for a win in his four tries. He gained over 9.3 strokes on approach in 2023 and has gained over three strokes off the tee twice, so his ball striking is a nice fit here. He’s playing so well that I can’t get away from putting him on my card this week.
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) bounced back from a poor first round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational to finish T11 while gaining over 5.8 strokes from tee to green. Fleetwood is in excellent form with his ball-striking, and it could pay off this week. He has two top-seven finishes here and has only missed the cut once.
Shane Lowry (+4000) was leading last week at the halfway point before a bad round on Saturday derailed him. He gained over five strokes on approach combined on Thursday and Friday before having a few hiccups on the weekend. He has three top 20s here in his last four tries, and he has gained over 2.9 strokes on approach in each of those tournaments.
Corey Conners (+5000) contended here in 2021 and has a game that should fit at TPC Sawgrass. He is accurate off the tee and excellent with his irons when he is at his best. He gained strokes across the board at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I’m taking him at the start of an uptick in play if I am reading the tea leaves correctly. Last week was the first time he gained over three strokes on approach since the Open Championship last July.
DFS plays
Scottie Scheffler ($12,800) is priced considerably high this week, but I won’t be avoiding him because there are a lot of excellent options in the $5-6K range that will help keep costs down. Scheffler is playing below his usual level when it comes to approach play and has been hit or miss on the greens this year, but you can’t ignore how he is setting himself up off the tee. His bad play is so good. He lost over 5.3 strokes on the green at the API, and he finished T11 in a signature event.
Collin Morikawa ($10,500) See above.
Ludvig Åberg ($10,200) teed it up for the first time since his win at the Genesis Invitational when he played last week. He was even better off the tee than he was during his win but struggled on Saturday. He’s driving it great, and he’s putting it lights out. If he can just avoid the big mistakes with his irons, he could pay off big time. He gained over 12.3 strokes from tee to green here last year and would have pushed Scheffler if he didn’t struggle on the greens.
Justin Thomas ($10,100) won here in 2021 and missed the cut here last year after losing over three strokes on the green on Friday. He has consistently gained strokes on approach at this course and just needs his putter to cooperate to pay off. I think his price is a little high for the volatility he has shown on the greens.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900) has three top-eight finishes here in his last four trips and has gained over 16 strokes combined on approach in those four tries. He hasn’t been consistent lately off the tee or with his approach game, but has been lights out around the green gaining over 14 strokes combined over his last four tournaments.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,800) See above.
Daniel Berger ($9,600) bounced back from a poor first round to find himself in the top 10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before a double bogey on the 18th hole. He is playing really well from tee to green and hasn’t missed a cut here since 2015.
Shane Lowry ($9,100) See above.
Sepp Straka ($8,600) has made the cut here three straight times and has two top-16 finishes to show for it. He is first on the PGA Tour in FedEx Cup points and has gained over nine strokes on approach combined in his last two tournaments. Straka seems mispriced and will be very popular coming off of a T5 at the API. He is going to be in play for me in one-and-dones as well. Kiss of death?
Robert MacIntyre ($8,300) hasn’t made a cut at The Players Championship in two tries, but he seems to have turned a corner since the last time he played here. Since the Tour Championship in 2024, he has only missed one cut and has 11 top-25 finishes. He will need to be a little better with his irons if he is going to outplay his price, but I like his chances this week.
Corey Conners ($7,900) See above.
Keegan Bradley ($7,700) had the lowest nine-hole score in Arnold Plamer Invitational history. All those years of Tiger Woods dominating that tournament and Bradley has the record. He has gained over 10 strokes combined on approach over his last two tournaments and has contended here before with two top-seven finishes since 2018.
Brian Harman ($7,600) has three top-eight finishes here since 2019 and gained over 16 strokes on the field last year. His approach play has been excellent lately, gaining over eight strokes combined on approach over his last three tournaments, but his putter has been letting him down. I like Harman this week. I even like a little bet on him at +11000, just in case his putter catches fire.
Aaron Rai ($7,100) has gained over 12 strokes on approach combined over his last three tournaments. He has gained over 2.2 strokes off the tee and on approach in each of his two trips to TPC Sawgrass and seems like a no-brainer at this price.
Justin Rose ($6,300) has gained over 2.6 strokes on approach in two of his last three tournaments and has been excellent on the greens, gaining over five strokes putting at the API. He has four top 25s here since 2016 and seems to be poised to have a nice year.
Laurie Canter ($6,000) is interesting because he is the first former LIV Golf player to make it back into a PGA Tour event. Canter won the Bahrain Championship at the beginning of February and has two other top-three finishes on the DP World Tour to go along with that win. Canter gains a ton of strokes off the tee, but he has also gained over six strokes on approach in multiple tournaments this year. His putter is the weak part of his game, but at $6K, we can forgive him for that.
Jake Knapp ($5,900) has gained more than 1.5 strokes on approach in five straight tournaments. He finished T45 here last year on his first try and shouldn’t be forgotten after he didn’t make the field for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Michael Kim ($5,900) is going to be very popular at this price. Kim has long been one of the most honest players on social media, and his interactions haven’t slowed down even with this incredible upturn in his play. He has gained stroke in every major category for five straight tournaments. He even jokingly tweeted how he must now be better than Jon Rahm as he is above him in the official world golf rankings. He has made the cut once here in five tries and has had real issues off the tee in each of those tournaments. Can we completely ignore him at this low price? No. Do we have to go all in? Absolutely not. I’m going to be underweight on Kim this week.
Nicolai Højgaard ($5,700) has gained over 3.2 strokes on approach in three straight tournaments. He missed the cut here last year, but I really like his chances this year with his form with an iron in his hand.
Doug Ghim ($5,600) has gained over 1.7 strokes on approach in five straight tournaments. He has gained over 17.4 strokes on approach combined over his last three tournaments. He has three top-30 finishes here in his last four tries.
Karl Vilips ($5,600) won the Puerto Rico Open with a tremendous performance from tee to green. He has been good with his approach game early on in his PGA Tour career. He gained almost five strokes on approach combined at the Mexico Open and the Cognizant Classic.
Alex Smalley ($5,400) has missed one cut in 2025 while not finishing worse than 21st in his other tournaments. He shows up in all of my models and in my trending-players analysis. He hasn’t played well here yet in his career, but he shows the potential to break through for a nice finish this week.
Matti Schmid ($5,300) followed up his T18 at the Cognizant Classic with a T6 at the Puerto Rico Open. Schmid finished T26 here last year, gaining strokes across the board.
One and done
Scheffler had the Esser curse on the greens last week so now I’m turning my focus to a player that usually struggles on the greens in Corey Conners. Conners was excellent from tee to green last week and has contended here before. I was tempted by both Sepp Straka and Ludvig Åberg. Who are you taking and why?
(Photo of Scottie Scheffler: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)
