11 doesn't go into six: Analysing the race for the eight - where does your team sit on the road to finals? (2024)

This year should be every footy fan’s dream. All of the talent equalisation measures that the AFL have introduced seem to be working, with 13 teams still well and truly in the hunt to play in finals.

Barring a major collapse, and it is possible, especially with Carlton, Sydney and the Blues should be good enough to hold onto the top two.

Whether the fact the Swans continue to let their opponents rack up multiple goal leads will determine if they will turn home and away season form into a flag or not.

It does show, however, that they do have weaknesses and that there are 13 potential premiers this year. Teams currently from 14-18 – Adelaide, St Kilda, West Coast, Richmond and North Melbourne – already have a line through them making September this year.

Let’s look at the remainder of the competition, who they play in the run home, and where they will finish the home and away season (there may just be a surprise wooden spooner too).

3. Fremantle

9-1-5, 38 points, 111.3%

Remaining games: Richmond (H), Hawthorn (A), Melbourne (H), West Coast (H), Essendon (A), Geelong (H), GWS (A), Port Adelaide (H)

Freo fans shouldn’t get too carried away with their win over Sydney, especially given the Swans’ slow starts and the fact they nearly got run down in the final quarter

Nevertheless, beating the ladder leaders, when so many have tried and failed this year, is a big confidence booster.

Out of their eight remaining games, there are five wins the Dockers would expect to claim – with big games against the Hawks, Bombers and Giants also very winnable if the right Fremantle turns up on the day.

The flag may be a bridge too far in 2024, but a great run home could keep them in the top four – and from there, anything’s possible.

Predicted finish: 4th (62 points)

4. Essendon

9-1-5, 38 points, 99%

Remaining games: Collingwood (A), Melbourne (A), Adelaide (H), St Kilda (A), Fremantle (H), Gold Coast (H), Sydney (H), Brisbane (A)

After a great start, the Bombers have had the brakes applied in the past month, with their only win in four games coming against wooden spoon contenders West Coast.

It has to be a concern for Essendon fans when it comes to performing against quality opposition, but they have to turn around June’s losing trend because the boys from Windy Hill have Sydney and Brisbane to finish.

There are three 50-50 games that will determine whether they cling onto the top eight or not; Pies, Fremantle and Gold Coast. The Bombers should do enough to play September footy, whether they win or not from there, is another story.

Predicted finish: 6th (58 points)

5. Geelong

9-6, 36 points, 106.2%

Remaining games: Hawthorn (H), Collingwood (A), Western Bulldogs (H), North Melbourne (A), Adelaide (H), Fremantle (A), St Kilda (A), West Coast (H)

The Cats are the Jekyll and Hyde team of the competition. On their day can match it with every team – they even had the Swans on the ropes before halftime, only to give up that advantage in the second half. Winning seven straight games to start the year, had everyone on notice.

On the other hand, since then, Chris Scott’s men have won just two out of the past eight It is far from ideal, especially, when the Cats can turn up and struggle to beat a VFL side with poor tactics and execution.

There cannot be any more real slip-ups from here – the Cats meet four of the bottom five sides, which they must win.

Games against the Dogs and Hawks are winnable too – and upsets against the Pies and Dockers could have them well-placed in the top four.

Predicted finish: 5th (60 points)

6. Collingwood

8-2-5, 36 points, 105.8%

Remaining games: Essendon (H), Geelong (H), Hawthorn (A), Richmond (H), Carlton (H), Sydney (A), Brisbane (H), Melbourne (A)

Some have said the Magpies are flying under the radar, especially with their horror injury toll this year, but the fact remains that they are a team not playing to the level they did in 2023.

Despite that, and the close competition, all the Magpies need to do is get into the finals to be a real threat; in September, it becomes a week-to-week proposition – that’s just how Craig McRae likes it.

But before that, the Pies have a tough draw in the run home, facing the top two sides in Sydney and Carlton, as well as the in-form Brisbane. Even the Hawks, Bombers and Cats are not going to make things easy.

Collingwood should be playing September footy, but might only just make it.

Predicted finish: 7th (56 points)

7. Port Adelaide

9-6, 36 points, 101.1%

Remaining games: Western Bulldogs (H), Gold Coast (A), Richmond (H), Carlton (A), Sydney (H), Melbourne (A), Adelaide (H), Fremantle (A)

Port Adelaide have been below their best this year; whether that’s Ken Hinkley’s coaching or an underperforming roster, ever since last year’s finals straight-sets exit, the Power have looked a far cry from the team that won 13 consecutive games in 2023.

The Power had one game where everyone stood up and took notice, against Geelong, but even then they were lucky not to be run down. Consistency will be the key to making finals in a tight competition, and the men from Alberton have a tough draw to finish the season.

Wins should come against Richmond and Melbourne, and losses are likely against Sydney and Carlton, but in every other game, they will have to be at their very best with their opponents just as desperate to be part of Sepember action.

This might just be a year where they have to sit out and watch the finals from a vineyard in the Adelaide Hills – and make the tough decision on Hinkley.

Predicted finish: 9th (52 points)

8. Brisbane

8-1-6, 34 points, 121%

Remaining games: Adelaide (H), West Coast (A), Sydney (H), Gold Coast (A), St Kilda (A), GWS (H), Collingwood (A), Essendon (H)

Just a few weeks ago, many were predicting 2024 to be a rebuilding year for Brisbane… but haven’t they proved the critics wrong? Battling through injuries and poor results, the Lions have broken into the top eight, and are playing as well as anyone.

The rest of the season could just be a yellow brick road to the finals for the Lions. Yes, they meet Sydney, Collingwood and Essendon, but every game is winnable for the Lions, and with the extra motivation of coming so close in previous seasons, they might just roar home to finish top four and be genuine flag contenders again.

Predicted finish: 3rd (66 points)

9. Western Bulldogs

8-7, 32 points, 120.2%

Remaining games: Port Adelaide (A), Carlton (H), Geelong (A), Sydney (A), Melbourne (H), Adelaide (A), North Melbourne (H), GWS (H)

Consistency is going to kill the Bulldogs in 2024. Fans just don’t know what version of Luke Beveridge’s side is going to turn up week to week.

There have been solid wins over Collingwood, Fremantle and GWS, but then there have also been performances like their hammering at the hands of Brisbane – can we really trust them to win the likely five games they’ll need in the last eight to reach September

It will be a tough run home for the Bulldogs, with clashes against both the Blues and Swans as well as a string against sides just as desperate to secure their finals ticket – this could get messy.

Predicted finish: 12th (40 points)

10. GWS

8-7, 32 points, 108.4%

Remaining games: Carlton (H), Richmond (A), Gold Coast (H), Melbourne (A), Hawthorn (H), Brisbane (A), Fremantle (H), Western Bulldogs (A)

It’s been a disappointing drop-off for Adam Kingsley’s men. After a preliminary final last year, the Giants have failed to make a big sound in 2024, and their 3-7 record since winning their first five games is alarming.

That prelim loss should have given the side motivation to go one better. They have the potential, with a stack great midfielders and Jesse Hogan up there in the race for the Coleman Medal, but they just have failed to get over the line and win key matches.

Unfortunately, I see that continuing in the run home, especially in a competition where others might just be hungrier for success.

Predicted finish: 11th (48 points)

11. Gold Coast

8-7, 32 points, 106%

Remaining games: North Melbourne (A), Port Adelaide (H), GWS (A), Brisbane (H), West Coast (A), Essendon (A), Melbourne (H), Richmond (A)

A lot has been made of the Suns’ home and away form: literally, winning at home and losing away.

If they can keep that trend up, their away matches in the run home include the Kangaroos, Eagles and Tigers – all hugely winnable games.

It’s not out of the realm for Damien Hardwick to produce a finals appearance in his first year at the club, especially with the advantage of playing neither the Blues nor Sans in their last eight.

Predicted finish: 8th (52 points)

12. Melbourne

8-7, 32 points, 99.9%

Remaining games: West Coast (H), Essendon (H), Fremantle (A), GWS (H), Western Bulldogs (A), Port Adelaide (H), Gold Coast (A), Collingwood (H)

As touched upon earlier, it’s no secret how close the competition is this year.

Melbourne will be competitive in all of their games to end the season, but I’m predicting they will fall short in almost all of them, just because of the quality of their opponents.

At their best, the Demons can win all of their remaining eight matches, but it has been a below-par year for the 2021 premiers, and missing Christian Petracca may just see them limp over the line rather than be challengers.

Predicted finish: 13th (36 points)

13. Hawthorn

8-7, 32 points, 97.9%

Remaining games: Geelong (A), Fremantle (H), Collingwood (H), Adelaide (A), GWS (A), Carlton (A), Richmond (A), North Melbourne (H)

A few weeks ago, I predicted Hawthorn would play finals in 2024.

However, I didn’t count on the competition tightening up even further.

I still firmly believe that the Hawks have the X-factor that puts them as a genuine contender in every game – their psychological motivation taught by Sam Mitchell.

However, we are coming to the business end of the season, and everyone wants to win just as much. Factored in are expected losses to Geelong this week, and Collingwood in Round 19, in the run home… but if the Hawks can spring an upset, a top-eight berth is certainly not out of reach.

Predicted finish: 10th (52 points)

Predicted Ladder

1. Sydney
2. Carlton
3. Brisbane
4. Fremantle
5. Geelong
6. Essendon
7. Collingwood
8. Gold Coast
9. Port Adelaide
10. Hawthorn
11. GWS
12. Western Bulldogs
13. Melbourne
14. Adelaide
15. St Kilda
16. West Coast
17. North Melbourne
18. Richmond