Khachanov – Rune: 19.04.2025 13:30 CEST
H2H: 0-2
Karen Khachanov has won three of his last five matches. This week in Barcelona, Khachanov fought hard against Norrie to secure a three-set win. After losing the opening set 6-7, he turned the match around and won after two hours on the court. Today, Davidovich Fokina made many unforced errors in the quarterfinals, which Khachanov took advantage of and won in straight sets.
Holger Rune has won three of his last five matches. This week in Barcelona, Rune won the opening round match against Ramos-Vinolas in straight sets. It is his second appearance in Barcelona. In his debut campaign 2019, Rune lost against Ramos-Vinolas in three tight sets. Rune lost the opening set against Baez in the second round but turned it around. The Dane lost only three games in the second and third sets. In the quarterfinals, Ruud had no answer for Rune’s game today. The Dane won comfortably 6-4 6-2.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, Rune is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He was relentless throughout the week and is the second-biggest favourite to win the title. Khachanov usually underperforms on clay and has struggled with his form since the beginning of the season. We expect Rune to win tomorrow.
That being said, Rune winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Holger Rune winning @1.50 @bet365
Extra Bet
Khachanov’s serve will make little difference, considering how slow the courts are. We expect Rune to fight for every point and keep every game tight.
That being said, Rune winning at least one point in each game of the opening set is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Holger Rune winning 1+ points in every game in set 1 @-125 @FanDuel
Alcaraz – Fils: 19.04.2025 16:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Carlos Alcaraz has won eight straight matches. Last week in Monte Carlo, Alcaraz won the Masters 1000 title. The Spaniard had a favourable draw this week in Barcelona, winning all matches in straight sets. Today, in the quarterfinals, de Minaur had no chance against Alcaraz.
Arthur Fils has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Monte Carlo, he lost against Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. In Barcelona, the Frenchman defeated Carreno-Busta in straight sets in the opening round. He saved two set points in the opening set. In the second round, the Frenchman won easily against Martinez in straight sets. Tsitsipas retired today in the quarterfinal clash against Fils just after playing two games.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Fils is the big underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He is in great form and almost won against Alcaraz last week in Monte Carlo. He spent almost no time in the quarterfinals and will be well-rested for this match. On the other hand, Alcaraz has played a lot in the last couple of weeks, so we expect the Frenchman to keep this match tight.
That being said, Fils covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Arthur Fils +4.5 games handicap @1.67 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
