FRANKFURT (DEUTSCHE-BOERSE AG) – Will Black Friday be followed by Black Monday? It looks like it. Asia’s stock markets are also deep red. Without the US government’s willingness to negotiate on tariffs, analysts expect it to stay that way.
April 7, 2025 FRANKFURT The sell-off on the stock markets continues in the new week, with the DAX falling below the 19,000-point mark on Monday morning. “Risk aversion remains the dominant theme on the financial markets,” explains Ralf Umlauf from Helaba. “Market situation: snap breathing,” is how Robert Halver from Baader Bank describes it. “As long as tariff threats dominate the live ticker and deals fail to materialize, economic uncertainty will remain intact.”
Since Thursday, the day after the “Liberation Day” proclaimed by Donald Trump, stock markets have been plummeting. The announcement of counter-tariffs by China has exacerbated the situation. The DAX stood at 18,700 points on Monday morning after closing at 20,642 on Friday. This means that all the gains made this year are gone. The sell-off also continued on Asia’s stock exchanges today. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 fell back to the May 2024 level on Friday.
“Further setbacks not ruled out”
Market technician Christian Henke from IG speaks of a Black Friday and a “real massacre” on the tech stock exchange Nasdaq. “The risk of a global recession has increased immensely,” he explains. Even the DAX, which had been strong up to that point, had “come under the wheels”. “It has fallen slightly below the exponential 200-day line. A quick recovery would be important.” If there is no counter-offensive, there is a risk of further price losses.
“Whether and to what extent the downward spiral on the stock markets will continue over the next few days is likely to depend primarily on the governments involved,” notes Soren Hettler from DZ Bank. If the US government in particular signals a clear willingness to negotiate, the image of “dealmaker Trump” could come to the fore again and provide reassurance. “However, if Trump continues the tough stance he has taken in recent months, further setbacks cannot be ruled out.”
“Back to the upward trend in the foreseeable future”
According to Robert Halver, however, the dramatic fall in sentiment has already had a negative impact on share prices. “Due to previous price losses, the drop has narrowed,” he says. His advice is not to say goodbye to stocks completely. “Anti-cyclical investors with a longer-term horizon could gradually approach cyclicals again if the correction is more advanced, and regular equity savers anyway.”
DekaBank is also showing a little confidence. The high level of uncertainty will remain and cause pronounced price fluctuations. “However, as we continue to expect a resilient global economy overall, we anticipate that the stock markets will return to their upward trend in the foreseeable future,” explains chief economist Ulrich Kater.
In addition to further developments in the trade conflict, the latest US inflation figures are also likely to attract attention in the new week. In addition, the new reporting season kicks off on Friday in a week otherwise lacking in dates, with the first US companies publishing their figures for the first quarter. As usual, the banks start the week.
Important economic and business events of the week
Wednesday, April 9
20.00. USA: Minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting on March 18/19.
Thursday, April 10
3.30 pm. China: Consumer prices March. According to Deutsche Bank, price momentum is likely to have remained weak, with consumer prices expected to rise by 0.1% year-on-year. The drastic US tariff increases also fueled new concerns about falling demand for Chinese products. The resulting overcapacity in Chinese industry could counteract a hoped-for price increase.
14.30. USA: Consumer prices March. According to Commerzbank, inflationary pressure in the USA probably eased in March, but only because of lower gasoline prices. In the coming months, customs duties should drive up consumer prices.
By Anna-Maria Borse, April 7, 2025, © Deutsche Borse AG
(Deutsche Borse AG is solely responsible for the content of this column. The articles are not an invitation to buy or sell securities or other assets).
