The Milwaukee Bucks have managed to rack up a couple back-to-back wins after a rough patch in the absence of Damian Lillard and they will try to catch the Miami Heat in a weak spot after having their egos bruised by a stunning loss to the Grizzlies.
Zak Hanshew • Betting Analyst
Apr 5, 2025 • 11:25 ET • 4 min read
After dropping four straight and still missing star Damian Lillard, the Bucks have won back-to-back contests, and they’ll look to extend that win streak when they visit Kaseya Center to face the Heat.
Miami’s six-game win streak was snapped on Thursday as Ja Morant hit a buzzer-beater to give the Grizzlies a two-point victory. With Andrew Wiggins still out and Tyler Herro banged up, can the Heat continue their strong play at home, or will the visiting Bucks notch a third straight win?
My Bucks vs. Heat predictions expect Ryan Rollins to step up for the Lillard-less Bucks and cash in on a juicy points line. Read my NBA picks to see why you should target Rollins’ scoring prop and how you should bet.
Bucks vs Heat prediction
My best bet: Ryan Rollins Over 10.5 points (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s not every day we can get such a lowly points line at even money, so of course, we’re going to take advantage here. Ryan Rollins has surged over his last five games, and he’s started each of the Milwaukee Bucks last four contests. With Lillard out, Rollins should remain with the first unit in a favorable matchup with Miami Heat‘s lackluster perimeter defense.
Rollins has averaged 10.9 points across 15 starts this season, going slightly over the line on this prop. In those 15, he’s scored 11 points six times and posted 10 points three more times. Over his last five, he’s taken things up a notch by dropping 16 per game, hitting the Over three times and scoring exactly 10 points in two more.
Rollins was a second-round pick for the Warriors back in 2022, and he played sparingly for Golden State as a rookie and barely any more for the Wizards and Bucks last season. Coming into this season, Rollins averaged just under six minutes per game across 25 contests.
Rollins’ career-high in the scoring department was seven prior to the 2024-25 campaign, but he’s eclipsed that mark 17 times across 51 contests. Over his last five, Rollins set a new career-high in scoring with 17 points, dropped 20 in his next game out, and bested that total with 23 points just two games later.
Over the last 15 games, the Heat have allowed opposing point guards to average 24.6 points, good for 12th-most. In that span, Miami has surrendered 3.8 triples to the position, and on the season, no team has allowed more three-pointers made per game to point guards than the Heat at 3.5.
That poor long-range defense should benefit Rollins tremendously tonight. Across his last five, he’s hit 14-of-20 three-pointers, averaging 2.8 per game while sinking them at a 70% clip.
Rollins should see plenty of minutes and a healthy amount of scoring opportunities tonight, so I’m hammering the Over on this comical scoring line, especially when I can get them at even money.
Bucks vs Heat same-game parlay
Ryan Rollins Over 10.5 points
Tyler Herro Over 24.5 points
Giannis Antetokounmpo 5+ assists
Tyler Herro is questionable tonight, but I’m making this selection with the assumption that he’ll take the court. Over his last five games, he’s carried Miami’s offense behind 30.6 points. He’s scored at least 25 in five straight and six of seven, and he delivered a 40 burger in his last tilt with the Bucks. Expect another strong showing on offense.
Giannis dished a career-high 20 dimes in his last game out, and he handed out 11 in the game prior. He’s finished with at least five assists in 41 of 63 games this season, including five straight. The odds on this selection are set at -600, but they’re short for a good reason. I’m not taking this one straight up, but it fits nicely with our three-leg parlay for some extra insurance. Antetokounmpo’s assists line is set at 6.5, and while he’s certainly capable of reaching that mark, I prefer this safer alt line.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365’s offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bucks vs Heat odds
Bucks vs Heat live odds
Bucks vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee -1 (-105) | Miami +1 (-115)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -110 | Miami -110
- Over/Under: Over 215.5 (-110) | Under 215.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bucks vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee has covered the spread in six of its last eight games.
- Miami has covered in nine straight.
- The Bucks have hit the Over in five straight.
- The Heat have hit the Over in five of the last 10.
Bucks vs Heat trend
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Heat.
How to watch Bucks vs Heat
Location Kaseya Center, Miami, FL Date Saturday, 4-5-2025 Tip-off 8:00 p.m. ET TV FanDuel Sports Network – Sun, FanDuel Sports Network – Wisconsin
Bucks vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
