The San Diego Padres (15-5) and the Houston Astros (9-10) play the second game of a 3-game series Saturday at Daikin Park in Houston. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 1-0
The Astros won the series opener 6-4 Friday night as moderate home favorites (-175), while the Over (8.5) ended up coming through thanks to a high-scoring start to the game.
San Diego has a 15-5 record, best in the National League West by a half-game over the LA Dodgers, but the Padres are just 3-4 on the road. The Padres have allowed 4 or more runs in 5 of the past 6 games away from home, too.
Houston has alternated wins and losses in each of the past 14 games since April 2. While it won Friday, Houston has failed to win consecutive games at any point this season. The good news is that it has managed to lose 2 or more games in a row just once, too.
Padres at Astros projected starters
RHP Michael King vs. RHP Hayden Wesneski
King (3-0, 2.42 ERA) makes his fifth start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 22 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win (CG), 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 6-0 home victory vs. Colorado Rockies last Sunday
- 2025 road splits: 1 start (April 7), win, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 2 K in 5-4 victory vs. Athletics
- 2024 vs. Astros: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 4-3 home loss in 10 innings Sept. 17, 2024
- Career vs. Astros: 3-1, 2.60 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 16 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, 19 K in 2 starts and 5 relief appearances
Wesneski (1-1, 4.00 ERA) makes his fourth start. He has a 0.72 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 18 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H (3 solo HR), 0 BB, 10 K in 7-3 home victory vs. Los Angeles Angels last Sunday
- 2025 home splits: 1-1, 4.91 ERA (11 IP, 6 ER), 4 HR, 3 BB, 16 K, 0.91 WHIP in 2 starts
- 2024 vs. Padres (with Cubs): Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 3-0 home setback May 8, 2024
- Career vs. Padres: 1-1, 3.27 ERA (11 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K in 2 starts
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Padres at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+145) | Astros +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Padres at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Astros 3
Moneyline
The PADRES (-120) are a decent play behind the unbeaten King. He has a cadre of red-hot players supporting him on offense, and he is brimming with confidence after recording a complete-game shutout last time out against the Rox.
Remember, the Astros haven’t been able to stack victories at any point this season, winning 9 games, while failing to win the next outing every single time.
Run line/Against the spread
If you just don’t trust the Padres to win straight, or you’re bullish on the home side and a bit conservative, ASTROS +1.5 (-175) isn’t priced terribly out of line. Houston was impressive on offense in the series opener.
While King was impressive last time out, it was against the struggling Rockies at Petco. This is on the road against a top-tier offense, so we should have a much closer game.
Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-120) is a strong play in this middle contest of the interleague set.
The total is 1-1-1 in Wesneski’s first 3 starts for the Astros, so there isn’t much to glean there. However, the Astros offense has managed 3 or fewer runs in 3 of the past 4 outings, so the lean is low on the total.
For the Padres, the Under is 4-2 in the past 6 outings, while going 2-1 in King’s past 3 appearances. The San Diego pitching staff has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 6 of the past 8 contests, too.
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