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Weather and MLB pitching matchups are two factors to consider when building MLB home run picks and a cooler day on the East Coast and in the Midwest also means ballpark factors should be weighed. However, the weather on the West Coast is looking pristine, and Angels vs. Guardians in Los Angeles will be played on an 80 degree day with winds blowing out at Angel Stadium. Mike Trout has homered in three consecutive games and has hit home runs in bunches throughout his career. The latest MLB home run odds from DraftKings Sportsbook list Trout at +360 to hit a long ball on Sunday. With MLB HR props available for almost every player at in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks. 

The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-18 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Saturday. These three picks can be parlayed for +15931 odds and would pay out $801.55 on a $5 bet.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR (+675)

Recency bias can be your friend with proven hitters and that’s exactly the strategy here with Guerrero. The four-time all-star hasn’t homered yet this season but has hit at least 26 home runs in each of his last four seasons and his 63.0% hard-hit contact rate over a small sample size this season is by far the best of his career. 

“Guerrero is starting to heat up with two straight multihit games, although each of those hits were singles. We set the line at around +500 fo Vladdy to homer today,” SportsLine data scientist Jacob Fetner said. Bet MGM has the best price at +675, but DraftKings is going to give you the best price on these three MLB HR parlay picks today. 

Tyler O’Neill HR (+525)

O’Neill had the second 30-homer season of his career last year in Boston and now he’s raking in a good — albeit underachieving — Orioles lineup. His average exit velocity this season is on par with what we saw last year in Boston, so it’s probably only a matter of time before we start to see his power play in a similar way.

“O’Neill hasn’t hit a HR since opening day, but he is off to a strong start to the season with a .379 average,” Fetner said. “We like the matchup of O’Neill vs. Bubic and would set the line at around +350 for O’Neill to go yard.”

Christopher Morel HR (+550)

Morel is yet to go yard this year but the natural power is pretty clear here. He’s hit 47 home runs over the last two seasons and that’s something that you should see once he starts elevating again. His groundball rate is 55.6% this year but it’s only 45.5% for his career and the matchup should be helpful today. SportsLine projects his line for Sunday at +498.

“Morel was a power hitter with the Cubs, but he has just 3 HRs in 56 games since being traded to Tampa. We still think there is some power in his bat, and he has a good matchup against former top pick Kumar Rocker who has struggled with his location and has been hit hard,” Fetner said.

Want more MLB picks for Sunday?

You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.