The 2025 NHL playoffs are set to begin in just over two weeks, and the Eastern Conference playoff race couldn’t be closer.

Starting at the top of the Atlantic Division, the Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning and the Florida Panthers are all within four points of each other. Toronto has already secured its playoff spot, while Tampa Bay and Florida are on the verge of clinching as well.

The Ottawa Senators head into Thursday night holding the first wild-card position with 84 points from 74 games played. They’re five points ahead of the Montreal Canadiens, who currently occupy the second wild-card spot with 79 points from 74 games.

Four more teams are then within five points of Montreal: the New York Rangers (75 GP, 79 points), the Columbus Blue Jackets (73 GP, 77 points), the Detroit Red Wings (74 GP, 75 points), and the New York Islanders (74 GP, 74 points).

Ottawa Senators left wing Brady Tkachuk (7) and goalie Linus Ullmark (35).

© Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images

ESPN shared Stathletes’ projection model, which showcases the playoff chances and points pace for all six teams still in contention. The analytics favor the Senators and the Canadiens. 

Ottawa SenatorsPlayoff Chances: 98.6%

Points Pace: 93.1

Montreal Canadiens

Playoff Chances: 51.7%

Points Pace: 87.5

New York Rangers

Playoff Chances: 19%

Points Pace: 86.4

Columbus Blue Jackets

Playoff Chances: 25.5%

Points Pace: 86.5

Detroit Red Wings

Playoff Chances: 2.3%

Points Pace: 83.1

New York Islanders

Playoff Chances: 3.1%

Points Pace: 82.0