The Houston Astros (3-5) and Minnesota Twins (3-5) wrap up their 3-game series Sunday. First pitch from Target Field in Minneapolis is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Astros vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Astros lost the second game of the 3-game series 6-1 on Saturday after a 5-2 win in Thursday’a first game. Second-baseman Jose Altuve provided an early spark with a leadoff homer Saturday, but Houston managed just 5 more hits the rest of the way. The Under (7.5) cashed, as the Astros lost for the fourth time in the last 5 games.
The Twins picked up their third win in 4 games on Saturday as a -123 home favorite. After giving up a leadoff homer, Minnesota answered with a 6-run fourth inning, highlighted by a 3-run blast from 3B Jose Miranda.
Astros at Twins projected starters
RHP Ronel Blanco vs. RHP Chris Paddack
Blanco (0-1, 5.40 ERA) makes his second start. He allowed 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB with 6 Ks in 5 IP in Monday’s 7-2 home loss vs. the San Francisco Giants.
- 2024 road stats: 7-2, 3.19 ERA (80 IP, 21 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 14 starts
- 2024 vs. Twins: 0-1, 1 home start (May 31), 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 6-1 loss
- Career vs. Twins: 0-1, 12.71 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 2.31 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
Paddack (0-1, 24.30 ERA) makes his second start. He allowed 9 ER, 6 H, 4 BB with 2 Ks in 3 1/3 IP in Monday’s 9-0 loss at the Chicago White Sox.
- 2024 home stats: 4-1, 3.61 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 9 starts
- Career vs. Astros: 0-0, 4.50 ERA (6 IP, 3 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 0.0 K/9 in 1 start with San Diego (2021)
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Astros at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:16 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Twins -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+165) | Twins +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Astros at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Astros 3
Moneyline
BET TWINS (-120).
I like the home team to close out the series on Sunday afternoon. Houston’s offense is struggling, scoring more than 3 runs just once and totaling only 18 runs in 8 games — the second-lowest mark in MLB. They’ve also managed just 5 HRs. Minnesota hasn’t been dominant at the plate either, but it’s tough to be colder than the Astros.
Paddack had a shaky 2025 debut, but he posted much better numbers at home last season. Meanwhile, Blanco’s track record against the Twins hasn’t been impressive. With the way Houston’s bats have looked, it’s hard to trust them right now. Give me the Twins to take the rubber match and win the series at home.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
No interest in playing with the run line in what I expect to be a tight game between 2 struggling teams.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).
The Under has been the trend between these teams, going 2-0-1 in their last 3 matchups. Houston has hit the Under in 5 of 8 games this season, while Minnesota is 1-0-2 to the Under in their last 3. With both lineups struggling to produce runs, another low-scoring game could be in store.
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