I love apples. I mean, I know we all like apples. but for me, it goes beyond that. It’s a rare day when I don’t eat at least one apple at breakfast. That said, though I have purchased many (really, quite a few) stocks across my portfolios overnight into this morning, I have not yet re-initiated a long position in Apple  (AAPL) . Actually, it’s been months since I’ve been long AAPL. Our old friend Jim Cramer has often said about Apple: “Own it, don’t trade it.”

I always somehow managed to break that quasi-rule and often paid for it when getting back in the stock. Until 2024. That was the year that for most of the second half of the year, trading those shares really proved productive. With the company’s fundamentals and corporate execution both starting to underperform last year into this one, I saw no need to rush into reexposing myself. So far, that has proven to be the correct path as AAPL closed on Tuesday down 13.9% from its December high. Overnight, in response to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, AAPL is trading another 7% to 8% lower.

The Deal…

All of Apple’s products will be subject to tariffs at various rates. The firm will likely try to best manage its supply chain to minimize the impact, but if current tariff rates announced for China, Vietnam and India stand as they now, are, Wamsi Mohan of Bank of America estimates that this could impact the company’s earnings per share by up to $1.26 for 2026. That’s more than a 15% haircut to expectations. Mohan is a five-star rated (by TipRanks) analyst who did reiterate his “buy” rating on AAPL this morning but cut his target price from $265 to $250.

In addition, Edison Lee (also 5-stars) of Jefferies, reiterated his “sell” rating on AAPL and his odd target price of $202.33. Certainly, there is no consensus. Two other five-star analysts that I think highly of, disagree sharply. Ivan Feinseth of Tigress Financial reiterated a “buy” rating and a $300 target price, while Tim Long of Barclay’s reiterated a “sell” rating and a $197 target.

Last night, while not changing his “buy” rating or $275 target, Atif Malik (5-stars) of Citigroup warned that Apple faces a 9% negative impact to the firm’s total gross margin as a result of these tariffs.

The Chart

Readers will see that AAPL gapped lower this morning and tested a supportive trend line that had been in place since very early January. The stock had since found help at the halfway back point, or 50% retracement level of its April 2024 to December 2024 rally. Note that as AAPL tests that trendline, the stock’s 50-day simple moving average is now closing in on its 200-day simple moving average, setting up a likely “death cross,” which could produce an algorithmic reaction.

With the stock’s relative strength already in a weakened state and its daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator, apparently re-posturing itself in a more bearish nature, it would take a lot for that trendline to hold. Should that line fail, the stock will see support either at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of last year’s rally, which would put the shares at a rough $200 per share or the lows of last July ($196).

May Day: Earnings 

Apple is set to report earnings on May 1. Wall Street is looking for an unadjusted earnings per share of $1.61 on revenue of about $94 billion. That would compare to $1.53 for the year ago comp on revenue growth of 3.6%. I would expect CEO Tim Cook to revert to his Covid-era routine of not providing forward looking guidance during the call. That may or may not be received well.

I would like to hear more about the announced plans to spend more than $500 billion in the U.S. this year, expanding its labor force and facilities in Michigan, Texas, California, Arizona, Nevada, Iowa, North Carolina, and Washington. This, if anything, gives Cook a sledgehammer in any negotiations he goes into with the White House. Any compromise by the current administration in order to keep that investment in place will result in a rally for the stock at that time, despite its costs.

I am not, however, willing to bet on that today. For today, I watch and see how low AAPL can go. Unless it touches that Fibonacci level this week or next, I am not a buyer of this name.

At the time of publication, Guilfoyle had no position in any security mentioned,.