The Big Ten Conference Tournament is underway and Day 2 begins early this morning when the No. 8-seeded Oregon Ducks take on the No. 9-seeded Indiana Hoosiers with tip-off scheduled for 9 AM PST.
Whichever team wins this game will advance to take on the No. 1 seed Michigan State Spartans in the quarterfinals.
The oddsmakers favor Oregon as the Ducks are 1.5 to 2-point favorites depending on the platform. The over/under for the game can be found between 142 and 143.5 points, depending on which top Oregon sportsbook you use.
Indiana vs. Oregon predictions and best bets
There is bound to be chaos entering the conference tournament phase of the college basketball season. However, the Oregon Ducks project well to beat out the Hoosiers here in their opening round. The Ducks have won seven straight and are likely playing in a lower spot seed-wise than they’ve shown lately.
Oregon has led at halftime in seven of its last eight games. The Ducks are routinely playing their best ball at the beginning of games, and that trend should continue over into the conference tournament. Expect the Ducks to control the first twenty minutes.
The Ducks have been firing on all cylinders offensively, and we’ll keep backing them today against the Hoosiers in postseason play. Oregon has gone over this line in their last nine games, including against Indiana just nine days ago. I like them to go over again in this one.
Indiana vs. Oregon moneyline analysis
Why Oregon could win as the favorite
Best odds: -125 at FanDuel
The Ducks were in freefall when they had lost five straight games between January and February. Since then, the team has ripped off seven consecutive victories and slowly built back their confidence heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
Nate Bittle has become a key piece of the team’s offensive identity, even scoring 36 points in the team’s 80-73 win against Washington in the regular season finale.
Oregon has all the momentum heading into postseason play and should have confidence heading to Indianapolis for this tournament. The team is 4-0 this year in neutral site games and 19-5 as the favorite, two strong percentage rates to consider ahead of tip-off.
The Ducks are also one of the better-balanced teams in the country. Per KenPom Rankings, the team ranks 35th in offensive efficiency and 36th in defensive efficiency. Placing inside the top 40 for both measures strongly indicates a team’s chances of sustained success, especially on a big stage like the conference tournament.
It’s worth noting that Oregon already beat Indiana just over a week ago. The teams were tied with 90 seconds remaining in the game before the Ducks closed the contest on a 10-0 run. Despite Oregon’s struggles from three-point range (24%), they still managed to squeeze out the victory. They should repeat that result here this afternoon.
Why Indiana could win as the underdog
Best odds: +110 at BetMGM
Nine days ago, the Hoosiers took Oregon to the wire with the game tied until the final 90 seconds. Part of that success came from creating an issue for the Ducks from three.
Indiana will have a chance at repeating that success and changing the final outcome today if they can create those same struggles for Oregon’s shooting. Another key focus for the Hoosiers will come on the defensive glass. 23 of the Ducks’ 73 points came on second-chance looks.
This calls for Indiana’s star big man, Oumar Ballo, to step up. The senior leads the team with over 13 points and nine rebounds per game. He has the size advantage over Bittle but allowed four offensive rebounds in the loss.
While it’s important not to put too much weight into the storyline aspect of sports, that tends to go out the window in March. Mike Woodson announced he would resign as head coach of the Hoosiers at the end of the season back on February 7th, and since then, the team has gone 5-2 with wins over Michigan State and Purdue.
With nothing left to lose, the Hoosiers enter this postseason extremely dangerous. This team could have easily keeled over and finished the rest of the year with minimal effort. Instead, they’ve responded well and may have something brewing for a magical late-season run.
The Ducks should not come into today’s game lightly, I’m expecting a battle.
