Insider Takes: Can Seattle Mariners extend pitchers now?

The good vibes that come with opening day arrived up a couple days early in the Pacific Northwest.

News broke Tuesday that the Seattle Mariners and Cal Raleigh are reportedly finalizing a six-year, $105 million contract extension that will keep the slugging catcher with the franchise through at least the 2030 season.

Lefko: Cal’s commitment changes the feeling about the Seattle Mariners’ future

With Raleigh reportedly locked up for the long-term alongside star center fielder Julio Rodríguez, the M’s can shift their attention to retaining their young core of starting pitchers.

How realistic is it to think Seattle could keep Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo together for the long haul? Seattle Sports’ Wyman and Bob posed that question to longtime MLB insiders Tim Kurkjian of ESPN and Jon Morosi of MLB Network during conversations Tuesday.

How long each pitcher is under control

Before we get into Kurkjian and Morosi’s takes, let’s take a look at how much longer each of the M’s four homegrown starters are under club control.

Gilbert, who will take the mound for his first career opening day start Thursday against the Athletics, is entering his fifth year in the majors. As a Super Two qualifier, he’s already in his second year of arbitration eligibility (making $7.625 million, per Spotrac) and has two years of club control remaining.

Kirby, who will start the season on the injured list after being shut down in spring training with shoulder inflammation, is heading into his fourth big league season. He’s also a Super Two qualifier and is making $4.3 million in his first year of arbitration eligibility. He has three years of club control remaining.

Miller is entering his third MLB season and is projected to be a Super Two qualifier, which would mean he’d be eligible for arbitration next season in the first of his final four years of club control.

Woo is also entering his third season and has one pre-arbitration year remaining in 2026 before his final final three years of club control.

Kurkjian’s take

For those hoping that Gilbert, Kirby, Miller and Woo all stay in Seattle past their club control, Kurkjian had some unfortunate news.

“Realistically, they’re not going to sign all of those guys because the Mariners have some money, but they’re obviously not in the same arena as so many other big, big, big market teams out there,” Kurkjian said.

Kurkjian was surprised the M’s didn’t end up dealing one of their young starters for a bat during the offseason, but said he’d hold on to the group as long as possible. However, he could see it start to get broken as soon as this summer.

“If you have a chance to make the playoffs, than maybe that is the time to take a starting pitcher and move him for a big-time hitter, because you may not need five starters in the postseason,” he said. “You need five to get you there, but if you can get close (and) then you add a bat, that might be what the Mariners are looking at a few months from now.”

Morosi’s take

Morosi, who also has a hard time seeing the Mariners being able to retain all four of the pitchers, said Gilbert would be his top priority as things currently stand.

Gilbert, 27, made his first All-Star team and finished sixth in American League Cy Young voting last season. He led all of baseball with 208 2/3 inning pitched and a 0.887 WHIP.

“Whether it happens now or in the next month or so, or perhaps at this time next year, that seems to me to be when you’re really looking at (extending Gilbert),” Morosi said. “Either right now or in the next 12 months.”

Morosi sees a Gilbert extension being quite a bit more expensive than Raleigh’s new deal, which carries an average annual value of $17.5 million. He believes the right-hander can command a deal north of $30 million per year, comparing Gilbert to Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler ($42 million per year) and New York’s Gerrit Cole ($36 million per year).

“If you’re starting to value your free agent years at $30-plus (million) and then you’re adding in (arbitration) on top of that, you are easily getting yourself into more than a $100 million commitment and probably closer to 150 or 175 by the time all is said and done, even if it’s an extension of only five or six years,” Morosi said.

“It starts to climb very quickly because it doesn’t take a lot of work at all for Gilbert and his camp to say that my free agent years should be valued in well into the 30s. That’s just where the rate of the market is right now.”

Hear the conversation with Tim Kurkjian at this link or Jon Morosi at this link, or find the audio players in this story. Listen to Wyman and Bob weekdays from 2-7 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.