Investors are stepping up bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates aggressively as President Trump’s tariffs raise U.S. recession fears.

Derivatives markets now imply a 44% chance that the Fed cuts rates at its next meeting on May 6-7. That is up from 14% a week ago.

Prices now suggest it is more likely than not that the Fed will cut its key rate to a range of 3.25% to 3.5% or lower by year-end, implying at least four quarter-point reductions, according to CME Group data.