Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. © 2024 MARVEL.
Following a quasi-rest year in which Marvel Studios released only one title theatrically—Deadpool & Wolverine ($211.4M domestic opening, $636.7M domestic total), now the highest-grossing R-rated movie of all time, domestically and globally—the MCU has gotten off to a rocky start in 2025, debuting Captain America: Brave New World to a modest $88.8M over the three-day President’s Day weekend (4-day domestic opening: $100M). In subsequent weeks, the title failed to pick up steam, grossing $188M domestically in the first five weeks in release—a period in which no other movie opened above $50M, meaning competition for chase week audiences has been all but non-existent.
Thunderbolts*, an anti-hero team-up film featuring familiar characters from Marvel Studios film and TV properties, will have more competition over its first month than Brave New World did, with Mission: Impossible – The Final Chapter, Lilo & Stitch, and Karate Kid all opening later in May. After its opening weekend, premium format real estate will be harder for Thunderbolts* to come by—as could ticket sales to more casual MCU fans who may want to catch up on the film in chase weeks should positive word-of-mouth develop. The lifting of review and reaction embargoes will give more insight as to the film’s potential performance in that regard.
Given Captain America: Brave New World‘s modest performance—and given the fact that Marvel’s ensemble movies have struggled since the 2019 release of Avengers: Endgame—Thunderbolts* opening weekend is not, at this point, likely to open over $100M, per our panel of forecasters. On the positive side: Thunderbolts*, unlike November 2021’s Eternals ($71.2M domestic opening, $164.9M domestic total), features an ensemble of characters for the most part already familiar to avid Marvel Studios audiences. On the negative side, many of those characters were villains/supporting players last seen either in movies several years old (Taskmasker and Alexei from 2021’s Black Widow; Ghost from 2018’s Ant-Man and the Wasp) or on one of Marvel Studios’ Disney+-exclusive shows (Yelena in Hawkeye; John Walker in The Falcon and the Winter Soldier), which could tamp down interest among the non-MCU-superfan contingent.
Should Thunderbolts* fail to deliver upon expectations, Disney/Marvel will have another shot at things prior to Avengers: Doomsday with the July release of Fantastic Four: First Steps, which represents something of a fresh start for the MCU as the debut (aside from a cameo for an alternate-universe Reed Richards in the Doctor Strange sequel) of their version of “Marvel’s First Family.”
MCU Theatrical Releases, Post-Avengers: Endgame
Release DateTitleDomestic OpeningDomestic Total2/14/25Captain America: Brave New World$88.8M$197.5M (as of 4/4)7/26/24Deadpool & Wolverine$211.4M$636.7M11/10/23The Marvels$46.1M$84.5M5/5/23Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3$118.4M$358.9M2/17/23Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania$106.1M$214.5M11/11/22Black Panther: Wakanda Forever$181.3M$453.8M7/8/22Thor: Love and Thunder$144.6M$343.2M5/6/22Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness$187.4M$411.3M12/27/21Spider-Man: No Way Home$260.1M$814.8M11/5/21Eternals$71.2M$164.8M9/3/21Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings$75.3M$224.5M7/9/2021Black Widow$80.3M$183.6M7/2/2019Spider-Man: Far from Home$92.5M$391.3M
Release DateTitleOpening Weekend RangeDistributor4/4A Minecraft Movie$85M – $100MWarner Bros.4/11Warfare$12M – $18MA244/11The King of Kings$8M – $12MAngel Studios4/11Drop$10M – $15MUniversal4/11The Amateur$10M – $15MDisney / 20th Century Studios4/18Sinners$35M – $45MWarner Bros.4/25The Legend of Ochi$6M – $10MA244/25The Accountant 2$30M – $40MAmazon/MGM4/25Until Dawn$8M – $12MSony
Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. © 2024 MARVEL.
