Madrid R3 previews and predictions: Draper vs. Berrettini, Musetti vs. Tsitsipas

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Third-round competition at the Madrid Masters concludes on Monday, when Indian Wells winner Jack Draper battles Matteo Berrettini. Stefanos Tsitsipas and Lorenzo Musetti are also aiming for a place in the last 16.

(5) Jack Draper vs. (30) Matteo Berrettini

Draper and Berrettini will be squaring off for the third time in their careers when the clash in round three of the Mutua Madrid Open on Monday. Both of their previous encounters have gone the way of Draper, who prevailed 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-4 in the 2024 Stuttgart final and 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 earlier this year in Doha.As those scorelines suggest, Berrettini has come extremely close–and this setting in Madrid may get him over the hump. Conditions are absolutely ideal for his game; a slow clay-court bounce gives him time to set up for his groundstrokes, but at the same time his huge serves and forehands are flying through the air. The 31st-ranked Italian advanced with a 6-7(3), 7-6(6), 6-1 victory over Marcos Giron on Saturday, while Draper dismissed Tallon Griekspoor 6-3, 6-4. Although the sixth-ranked Brit is in spectacular form, the surface may propel Berrettini to a minor upset.

Pick: Berrettini in 3

(17) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (10) Lorenzo Musetti

Musetti and Tsitsipas have already faced each other once during this clay-court swing. The Italian might as well have had home-court advantage in Monte-Carlo, which he used to earn his first-ever win over Tsitsipas via a 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 decision. Tsitsipas is still dominating the head-to-head series 5-1, with four of his victories coming on clay.

The 18th-ranked Greek was forced to retire from last week’s Barcelona quarterfinal contest against Arthur Fils due to a back issue. However, he did not look hampered at all during a 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 defeat of Jan-Lennard Struff on Saturday. Musetti opened with a 7-6(3), 6-2 win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry, improving to 13-5 for his 2025 campaign. As well as Musetti is playing, Tsitsipas has generally mastered this matchup and the Monte-Carlo result–with the world No. 11 benefiting from raucous crowd support–was likely an aberration to the rule.

Pick: Tsitsipas in 3

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