Madrid R3 previews and predictions: Shelton vs. Mensik, Rublev vs. Bublik

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Third-round action at the Madrid Masters begins on Sunday and the order of play is headlined by a showdown between Ben Shelton and Jakub Mensik. Defending champion Andrey Rublev faces Alexander Bublik.

(12) Ben Shelton vs. (22) Jakub Mensik

Shelton was down and out in his opening match at the Mutua Madrid Open on Friday. Having not broken serve all afternoon, the 13th-ranked American finally broke Navone when the Argentine served for the match at 5-4 in the second set. Shelton eventually prevailed 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-3, thus continuing his solid 2025 campaign that includes an especially impressive effort on clay. The 22-year-old is coming of a runner-up performance at the ATP 500 in Munich, where he beat Francisco Cerundolo in the semis before falling to Alexander Zverev in the final.

Up next for Shelton on Sunday is a third-round meeting with Mensik. The two rising stars have split their two previous contests, with Shelton winning 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 at the 2024 Indian Wells Masters before Mensik got the job done 7-6(2), 4-6, 7-5 earlier this season in Auckland. At just 19 years old, the Czech has already soared to No. 23 in the world thanks primarily to a Masters 1000 title in Miami–where he upset Novak Djokovic in the championship match. Mensik is now 15-7 on the main tour this season following a 7-6(4), 6-1 victory over Ethan Quinn on Friday. Clay does not give either play any kind of advantage, and right now Mensik is the more polished player from the back of the court and is also one of the few guys on tour who can serve every bit as big as Shelton.

Pick: Mensik in 3

Alexander Bublik vs. (7) Andrey Rublev

Rublev and Bublik will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers on Sunday. The head-to-head series stands at 5-3 in favor of Rublev, including 5-2 at the ATP level. Their matches have featured no shortage of drama; the Russian survived a five-set thriller at Wimbledon in 2023, Bublik won a three-setter in the Halle final earlier that summer, Rublev was infamously defaulted from their Dubai semifinal in 2024, and their 2019 Vienna showdown went to a third-set tiebreaker.

Just about anything could happen in this one, as it’s hard to know what to expect from either player. Bublik has been terrible in 2025 (5-10 match record), but he has advanced so far this fortnight with straight-set defeats of Alex Michelsen and Alexei Popyrin. Rublev has also struggled this year (11-9 match record), but he has been known to suddenly get hot at Masters 1000 events–such as when he captured this Madrid title 12 months ago from basically out of nowhere. The world No. 8 should take confidence from being the defending champion and he will likely be able to capitalize on a vulnerable opponent.

Pick: Rublev in 2

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