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The remaining quarterfinal spots in Madrid will be handed out on Wednesday, when Jack Draper goes up against Tommy Paul. Another all-seeded fourth-round showdown features Alex de Minaur and Denis Shapovalov.
(5) Jack Draper vs. (11) Tommy Paul
Draper and Paul will be squaring off for the sixth time in their careers when they battle for a place in the quarterfinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Wednesday. The head-to-head series stands at 3-2 in favor of Draper, who is 3-1 against Paul on outdoor hard courts and 0-1 on grass; they have never faced each other on clay. Both guys have been mostly outstanding in 2025, although it is Draper who is especially red hot right now whereas Paul has cooled off a bit since reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals and the Dallas semifinals. It has not been easy so far this fortnight for the 12th-ranked American, who beat Joao Fonseca in two tiebreakers and Karen Khachanov in three sets. Draper, on the other hand, defeated Tallon Griekspoor in easy straight sets and then got a retirement from Matteo Berrettini after taking the first set in a tiebreaker on Tuesday. Clay probably helps Paul to a minor extent, but the high altitude of Madrid basically offsets that advantage.
Pick: Draper in 3
(6) Alex de Minaur vs. (10) Lorenzo Musetti
Madrid is shaping up to be a lot like Monte-Carlo for Musetti, who defeated both Stefanos Tsitsipas and De Minaur en route the final of the clay-court swing’s first Masters 1000 tournament. The 11th-ranked Italian knocked off Tsitsipas again on Tuesday–7-5, 7-6(3)–and he will now meet De Minaur during fourth-round action on Wednesday. Musetti’s 1-6, 6-4, 7-6(4) victory over De Minaur in the principality gave him a 2-1 record in the head-to-head series.The seventh-ranked Australian may have a better chance in Madrid, where Musetti doesn’t have the same kind of home-court advantage that he enjoyed in Monte-Carlo. Moreover, De Minaur struggles to hit through slower conditions but he can finish points easier in the relatively quick conditions of Madrid. The No. 6 seed has improved to 24-8 for his 2025 campaign with straight-set victories this week over Lorenzo Sonego and Denis Shapovalov, and he should be able to maintain momentum with a revenge win over Musetti.
Pick: De Minaur in 2
