Between Jordan Hicks and Bryan Woo, our Mariners vs. Giants predictions expect the pitching to tell the story of Sunday’s game.
Apr 6, 2025 • 10:55 ET • 4 min read
The San Francisco Giants aim for a home sweep of the Seattle Mariners with Game 3 underway at Oracle Park on Sunday.
Bryan Woo toes the rubber for the away team while flamethrower Jordan Hicks takes the ball for the home team. There’s reason to be bullish on both starters, and that has me siding with the Under in my Mariners vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks.
Mariners vs Giants prediction
My Mariners vs Giants best bet: Under 7.5 (-115 at Caesars)
These two teams played to the Under in a 4-1 game on Saturday despite winds over 20 mph blowing out to center field from start to finish. I’m betting on another low-scoring contest with the winds down to 4-6 mph on Sunday.
Bryan Woo broke out as a 24-year-old last year with the Seattle Mariners, notching a 2.89 ERA and 2.72 ERA across 22 starts. The Cal Poly product relies on his four-seamer (43.4%) and his sinker (36.8%) for most of his offerings while sprinkling in three other pitches.
The San Francisco Giants have been the third-worst team against the fastball (-6.9 fastball runs “above” average), so this is a good matchup for Woo on paper. Also, Oracle Park is notably pitcher-friendly, posting the third-lowest Park Factor (96) since 2023.
Jordan Hicks takes the mound for San Francisco after holding Houston scoreless across six innings of one-hit ball in his season debut. The biggest takeaway from that outing is that his velocity was way up. The flamethrower dialed back the heat in his move to the rotation a year ago, dropping his average fastball velo from 100.3 mph in 2023 to 95.5 mph in 2024. It was back up three ticks to 98.7 in his season debut, which is a great sign.
Hicks was borderline unhittable in March and April (1.59 ERA) in his SF debut but saw a steady and sharp decline through May (3.99 ERA), June (5.24 ERA), and July (8.40 ERA). That’s understandable given it was his first year transitioning to the rotation, and it’d be natural to experience wear and tear.
I’m expecting a strong start for Hicks again this year and he looked terrific in his season debut with a 118 Stuff+ that ranked seventh among all starters. Seattle has below-average results against the sinker this year (-1.5 runs above average) and was underwater against the pitch a year ago (-14.6 runs above average).
Woo had a strong Stuff+ (107) last year and had similar results in his debut (108). Both bullpens are well-rested after a pitcher’s duel on Saturday, and I’ll bet on the Mariners moving to 2-7 O/U on the year.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Mariners vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5Jordan Hicks Over 4.5 strikeouts
Giants moneyline
Hicks wasn’t a high strikeout pitcher last year (20% K-rate) but that will change if he keeps upping the velocity, which seems like his goal heading into 2025. He had a 28.6% K-rate in his debut and averaged a 25.8% K-rate as a reliever from 2019 to 2023. Seattle had the league’s highest K-rate (27.3%) against right-handers a year ago. While that number is down to 23.1% to begin 2025, there’s still a lot of swing and miss in the lineup.
San Francisco’s bullpen has been lights out (1.67 ERA and 1.11 WHIP). The Giants have better numbers against RHP at the plate (116 wRC+ compared to 95 for Seattle) and have a starter who projects much better earlier in the season than later. Give me the Giants to pull off the sweep at home.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Giants odds
Mariners vs Giants live odds
Mariners vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: Seattle +100 | San Francisco -120
- Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-190) | San Francisco -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Mariners vs Giants trend
The Mariners are 2-6 O/U this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Giants.
How to watch Mariners vs Giants and game info
Location Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA Date Sunday, 4-6-2025 First pitch 4:05 p.m. ET TV Root Sports, NBCS Bay Area Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo
(2025: 1-0, 1.50 ERA) Giants starting pitcher Jordan Hicks
(2025: 1-0, 0.00 ERA)
Mariners vs Giants latest injuries
Mariners vs Giants weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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