• What: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
• When: 1:30 p.m. Sunday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: CBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 195 (MSU broadcast), 85 (Wisconsin broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 23-5 overall, 14-3 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 8 in both the Coaches poll and The Associated Press poll, and is No. 10 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com and No. 13 in the NCAA’s NET rankings. Wisconsin is 22-6 overall, 12-5 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 11 in the Coaches poll and 11 by the AP voters.
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• Betting line: MSU -4.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 730-300 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Wisconsin — Greg Gard is 207-112 in his 10th season as a head coach, all with the Badgers.
• Series: MSU leads 86-68 all-time. This is the first meeting this season. The Badgers won both meetings last season.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 5.0
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 7.8
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 12.7
G (11) Jase Richardson (6-3) 11.0
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.0
Wisconsin
C (22) Steven Crowl (7-0) 9.6
PF (31) Nolan Winter (6-9) 9.8
G (9) John Tonje (6-5) 19.5
G (25) John Blackwell (6-4) 15.2
G (11) Max Klesmit (6-4) 9.7
• MSU update: The Spartans are getting close to what would be a very meaningful Big Ten championship for this team and program, after a win at Maryland on Wednesday night, capped by a 50-foot buzzer-beater from Tre Holloman. At 14-3 in the Big Ten, MSU is tied atop the Big Ten standings with Michigan, with games against Wisconsin (Sunday), at Iowa (Thursday) and home against the Wolverines (next Sunday) remaining. Wisconsin, which is third in the Big Ten at 12-5, is the only other team with any shot at grabbing a share of the league title. Michigan has home games against Illinois (Sunday) and Maryland (Wednesday) remaining, before the season finale at MSU next weekend.
• Wisconsin update: Outside of a home loss to Oregon last weekend, the Badgers were arguably the Big Ten’s best team in February, winning their six other games — including by 10 points on the road at Purdue and by 21 against Illinois. Missouri transfer John Tonje’s 19.3 points per game in league play is fifth-most in the Big Ten. The emergence of sophomore John Blackwell (from Bloomfield Hills), who’s averaging 15.7 in league play, has also been a huge part of Wisconsin’s success. The availability of starting guard Max Klesmit is unclear. Klesmit, dealing with a lower leg injury, played just five minutes in the Badgers’ win over Washington on Tuesday.
• Matchup analysis: The evidence that these are the best two teams in the Big Ten is written all over the metrics. Wisconsin is tops in the Big Ten (and seventh nationally) in offensive efficiency, per Kenpom, and third in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. MSU is third in offensive efficiency and No. 1 defensively (sixth nationally). The Spartans are the best rebounding team in the Big Ten in league play — on both ends — and also lead the conference in 3-point defense, block rate and free-throw percentage. The Badgers are tops in 3-point shooting (38% in conference games) and second in defensive rebounding, free-throw percentage and defense inside the 3-point arc.
John Tonje is a linebacker on the wing for the Badgers — perhaps the Big Ten’s player of the year and the league’s top evaluation and recruit out of the transfer portal. He replaced last year’s leading scorer, A.J. Storr, who took a payday to go to Kansas, where it hasn’t worked out. Tonje is a shot-maker from a lot of different places on the court. Jaden Akins will likely begin guarding him. Coen Carr seems like the ideal defensive counter. John Blackwell, a player Tom Izzo would have recruited had he realized what he was going to become, is another difficult matchup and scorer at multiple levels. The Badgers are big and move the ball well, playing without a true point guard. MSU knows 7-footer Steven Crowl well. He gave the Spartans fits last year (including from beyond the arc in the first meeting). This is a more seasoned MSU interior defensively, however. Crowl creates as much offense with his passing as he does scoring these days.
• Prediction: I thought MSU would more lose at Maryland and beat Wisconsin. It took about five minutes of the game Wednesday night for me to realize I had that evaluation wrong — whatever the result, MSU matched up fine with the Terrapins. So I could be wrong here, too. I do think being at the Breslin Center will help and that, at some point, MSU will have a game where outside shots fall. For all the Badgers’ strengths, they’re just OK at defending the 3-point line. It’s up to MSU to make more than a couple outside shots. This is a game the Spartans probably won’t win otherwise.
• Make it: MSU 77, Wisconsin 74
MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation
— Graham Couch
Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
