NBA Playoffs: Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder odds, picks and predictions

The fourth-seeded Denver Nuggets and top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder play Game 1 of the best-of-7 Western Conference semifinals series Monday. Tip-off from Paycom Center is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT / truTV / Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Nuggets vs. Thunder odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Tied 2-2

The Nuggets were pushed to the brink but prevailed 120-101 in Game 7 as 1.5-point home favorites against the LA Clippers Saturday. C Nikola Jokic (16 points, 10 boards, 8 assists) and G Jamal Murray (16 points, 5 rebounds) were OK, but they weren’t the driving forces. F Aaron Gordon led the way with 22 points , and G Christian Braun had 21 points, including 3-for-5 from 3-point land. Jokic averaged a triple-double in the series with 24.0 points, 11.6 boards and 10.1 dimes with 2.3 steals per game.

The Thunder swept the Memphis Grizzlies after a thrilling 117-115 victory in Memphis in Game 4. G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took the game over with 38 points, 6 assists and 5 boards. He averaged 27.8 PPG in the series, but that’s largely because he only had 15 in Game 1 — which they won by 51 (131-80). F Jalen Williams was strong in a secondary role with 23.3 PPG, and Chet Holmgren averaged 18.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG and had 2.8 blocks per game. Keep in mind that OKC hasn’t played since April 26 because of the sweep.

Nuggets at Thunder odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:33 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nuggets +375 (bet $100 to win $375) | Thunder -500 (bet $500 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +10.5 (-110) | Thunder -10.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Nuggets at Thunder key injuries

Nuggets

Thunder

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Nuggets at Thunder picks and predictions

Prediction

Thunder 110, Nuggets 106

Moneyline

I look for this series to at least go 6 games as Denver has better depth of scoring, but OKC has the length and defense to beat anyone. I want no part of OKC at -500 as each team won a game in each other’s building this season.

BetMGM has a boosted prop of FIRST QUARTER: NUGGETS +3.5 (-105). OKC has gotten off to fast starts in each first quarter in these playoffs scoring 32, 32, 29 and 34. However, the Nuggets averaged 28.1 PPG in the opening quarter in their 7 games against the Clippers. These teams had a very similar pace in the regular season. Denver will keep up with the pacing early.

Against the spread

These teams were 2-2 ATS in the regular-season head-to-head meetings, each covering once in the other’s building. I look for the Thunder to be a little rusty early on after their layoff. The Nuggets were just on the brink and are still firing hot.

Take NUGGETS +10.5 (-110).

Over/Under

The Over went 2-2 in the 4 regular-season meetings, but both games in OKC went Under. I mentioned I think OKC comes out a little rusty, and this is a little closer than the 10.5-point spread would indicate. So, I like the UNDER 227.5 (-110).

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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