NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Round 1 Series Predictions

There is nothing better in the world than high stakes basketball. With the NBA Playoffs set to begin Saturday afternoon, we’re about to have two months of it. Even throughout the Eastern Conference playoff bracket, there are plenty of storylines and reasons for Dallas Mavericks fans to stay engaged and watch the games.

From the first round through the NBA Finals, David and I will have you covered, as we preview each series by giving our analysis and picks. Up first, it’s round one in the East.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs #8 Miami Heat

Series winner: Cleveland (-2500) Miami (10/1)

Series spread: Cleveland -2.5 games (-200) Miami +2.5 games (+165)

Tyler’s pick: Cavs in 5

Are the Miami Heat very good? No, they are not. Are the Cavs very good? Yes, they are. I could see this being a sweep, but I respect Spo and the Heat staff to find a way to peel a game off of the Cavs here.

Series props:

  • Cavs in exactly 5 games (+200)

David’s pick: Cavs in 4

The Cavaliers are far and away the better team. This won’t be close, the Heat have almost nothing to counter the Cavaliers’ onslaught of offense. There is a reason the Heat were a 10-seed and the Cavaliers almost won 70 games.

Series props:

  • Cavaliers -2.5 games (-200)
  • Series to go 4 games (+180)
  • Series to have a buzzer-beater (+2500)

The Cavaliers are going to sweep the Heat. The -2.5 spread is as free of a bet as there can be, regardless of the juice on it. The Heat will probably keep one of the games close, so taking a flyer on a buzzer-beater is a good bet.

#4 Indiana Pacers vs #5 Milwaukee Bucks

Series winner: Indiana (-165) Milwaukee (+135)

Series spread: Indiana -1.5 (+130) Milwaukee +1.5 (-160)

This series got flipped on its head with the news that Damian Lillard, who has been out for three weeks with deep vein thrombosis, is going to be available to play at some point in this series. It will not be in game one however, as the Bucks have already ruled him out for game one.

Tyler’s pick: Pacers in 5

The Pacers provide a unique challenge, as Tyrese Haliburton leads a wildly entertaining offense with a defense that has been sneakily pretty good since the All-Star Break. Plus, the coaching gap in this series is MASSIVE. We know Rick Carlisle can coach, and Doc Rivers is, well, Doc Rivers. Sign me up for that mismatch seven days a week. We’re getting a great number here after the Dame news pushed this number from (+170) to the current (+135).

Series props:

  • Either team to come back and win from 20+ points down (+475)
  • Pacers via gentleman’s sweep – Bucks win game 1, Pacers win series (+500)
  • Series total games under 5.5 (+145)

The Pacers and Bucks are both really volatile, so this screams that we’re going to get huge swings in this series. However, after the Bucks steal game one in Indiana, I think the Pacers run Milwaukee off the floor.

David’s pick: Pacers in 6

These two teams have developed an under-the-radar rivalry over the last few years. They play high-paced, high-scoring games and feature no shortage of threes. Tyrese Haliburton commands an Indiana offense that ranks ninth, and Myles Turner anchors their 14th-ranked defense. Indiana is just the better team. They defend Giannis Antetokounmpo as well as you can, and have a far superior collection of role players. As much as the playoffs are about stars, the power of friendship will boost Indiana to a first-round win.

Series props:

  • One overtime game (+270)
  • Pacers -1.5 games (+130)
  • Series to go 6 games (+200)

Each game in this series will be tightly contested. There will be an overtime game. The Pacers are going to win by at least two games and in the event that they don’t, this series will go six games either way.

#3 New York Knicks vs #6 Detroit Pistons

Series winner: New York (-400) Detroit (+310)

Series spread: New York -2.5 (+130) Detroit +2.5 (-155)

Tyler’s pick: Knicks in 7

If you’re looking for a team to root for in the playoffs without the Mavericks being involved, Detroit is for you. They have multiple Dallas products and are just scrappy as hell. However, playoff experience is a very real thing, and they have none of it. The Knicks are going to get through this series. However, that doesn’t mean that Detroit won’t leave their mark here. The Pistons are physical as hell and that sets this series up to be an all-out brawl. Look for KAT to be the swing player in this series against Detroit’s young and foul prone bigs.

Series props:

  • Pistons +2.5 games (-155)
  • Pistons +1.5 games (+135)
  • Series total games over 5.5 (-125)
  • Cade Cunningham series points leader (+140)

The Knicks do NOT have a soul who will bother Cade Cunningham defensively. He’s too quick for the New York wings and too big for the guards. And while we here in Dallas will always love and appreciate Jalen Brunson, Detroit has a wonderful compliment of athletes they can throw at him, most notably Ausar Thompson and the aforementioned Cunningham. So long as they stay out of foul trouble here, Cade should be able to do this.

David’s pick: Knicks in 5

When New York traded for Karl-Anthony Towns before this season, my take was that this move catapulted them into contention with the Celtics for the East’s best team. While the Knicks have not looked like it for the entirety of the year and injuries loom on a roster with so many minutes played, I still believe in this construction as a contending structure. The Pistons have a great, young, budding star in Cade Cunningham, but as everyone knows, there has to be playoff failure before there can be playoff success. The Knicks far exceed Detroit in experience, so I expect them to make quick work.

Series props:

  • Knicks -1.5 games (-160)
  • Cade Cunningham to be the leading scorer (+140)
  • Karl-Anthony Towns to be the leader in threes made (+1300)

The Knicks are going to blow the Pistons out, but giving 1.5 games gives some runway for a variety of outcomes. I am also on Cunningham to be the leading scorer. Cunningham will be over 30 a game in this series in a losing effort. Towns will stretch the floor a lot because of the Pistons’ lack of perimeter defending from their big men.

#2 Boston Celtics vs #7 Orlando Magic

Series winner: Boston (-5000) Orlando (+16/1)

Series spread: Boston -2.5 (-425) Orlando (+325)

Tyler’s pick: Celtics in 5

This one is pretty simple. Boston is a far superior team and it’s going to very clearly show itself out during this series. BUT, Boston is also known to mess around a bit, especially at home. I think that wakeup call will happen in game one or two, and from there on it’ll be curtains for our old friend Jamahl Mosley and the Magic.

Series props:

  • Exact game outcome – BOS, ORL, BOS, BOS, BOS (15/1)
  • Jayson Tatum series 3 pointers made leader (+155)

As much as I’d like to take Paolo here in some form or fashion, I just can’t get there in this specific matchup. Joe Mazzulla has earned my respect as a game planner, so I think this is a series where he looks to shut down Paolo and let his horses get out and run.

David’s pick: Celtics in 5

The Celtics, I believe, are the best team in the NBA. The Magic are in for a series of long nights with their lack of shooting and the Celtics’ proficiency in that area. Because shooting threes has so much variance, the Magic can probably get one game. But, ultimately, the Celtics are just a vastly superior team.

Series props:

  • Celtics to win 4-1 (+190)
  • Jaylen Brown to be the leading scorer (+550)
  • Paolo Banchero to be the leading rebounder (+240)

The Celtics will win in five games. Brown has been a better playoff scorer than Tatum for the most part, and has a high ceiling for making threes. Bancheor is a physical rebounder, and no one on the Celtics outside of Tatum has a chance of doing this, so I like the odds here.

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