The matchup of Kia MVP finalists Nikola Jokić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has all the attention of Kenny, Shaq and Charles.
One team took just four games to reach this Western Conference semifinals series. The other needed all seven (or at least, six and three quarters to blow open the clincher over the L.A. Clippers). Beyond that, there hasn’t been a lot to separate Oklahoma City and Denver lately – they split four games this season, are 8-8 since 2021-22 and, as far as head-to-head playoff history goes, have won two series each.
The semis is as far as both of them got a year ago. OKC fell to Dallas in six, while Denver failed in Game 7 vs. Minnesota. This time, one of them is guaranteed a trip to the Western Conference Finals. But only one.
Series schedule
Here’s how to watch the Thunder vs. Nuggets series:
All times Eastern Standard Time
- Game 1: Nuggets at Thunder (Mon. May 5, 9:30 ET, TNT)
- Game 2: Nuggets at Thunder (Wed. May 7, 9:30 ET, TNT)
- Game 3: Thunder at Nuggets (Fri. May 9, 10 ET, ESPN)
- Game 4: Thunder at Nuggets (Sun. May 11, 3:30 ET, ABC)
- Game 5: Nuggets at Thunder (TBD)*
- Game 6: Thunder at Nuggets (TBD)*
- Game 7: Nuggets at Thunder (TBD)*
* = If necessary
Top storyline
Dueling MVPs. You have to go back eight years to find this sort of individual showdown inside a postseason series. In 2017, OKC’s Russell Westbrook and Houston’s James Harden, the 1-2 finishers in Most Valuable Player balloting, met in the West’s first round. This time we get the top two presumptive vote-getters in Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Nuggets center Nikola Jokić.
The polls are closed, of course, for what is after all a regular-season award. But given each man’s value to his team, there really is no wrong choice. SGA won the scoring crown (32.7 ppg) for the league’s most successful team (68-14). Jokić already has three of the past four Michael Jordan Trophies and reigns as the NBA’s best player regardless of a single-season’s vote total.
The two don’t match up by position, but they are counted on to carry, with serious skin in every game. Biggest difference? SGA has enough reliable help that he could have an off-night without calamity (though he typically doesn’t, scoring 20+ in 75 of the 76 games he played). Jokić, on the other hand, dares not stumble, or his supporting cast might unravel.
All in all, this is a bonus battle inside the greater war.
Oklahoma City is deep with defenders. Will Denver be able to offer similar resistance against the West’s top seed?
Keep your eyes on
Playoff Jamal. Jamal Murray’s reputation as a playoff riser precedes him. He started to earn it in the Orlando “bubble” playoffs in 2020 and solidified it with his play in Denver’s 2023 title run. Never an All-Star despite plenty of talent, Murray has averaged 18 points in eight regular seasons, compared to 24 in 72 playoff games through Saturday’s Game 7 clincher over the Clippers. Injuries have played into the former, the latter boosted by being able to lock into one foe for two weeks in the postseason. He embraces his heavier responsibilities in the postseason, too, averaging 19.6 shots in the spring, five more than during the season.
1 more thing to watch for each team
For Thunder: Watching OKC night after night is like attending a masterclass in stifling team defense. The Thunder ranked first overall in defensive efficiency and led the NBA in steals, deflections, opponents’ turnovers and points off those turnovers. They have the personnel to guard big or guard small, from pests Lu Dort and Alex Caruso to versatile Jalen Williams to bigs Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
The Thunder can blitz, switch or stay home. They were 19-0 when holding their foes below 100 points and 50-1 when keeping them below 110 (Denver was 1-16 when it failed to crack 110 points). And while Jokić (30) and Murray (11) combined to score 30+ points 41 times, OKC only permitted an opposing scorer to do that 12 times all season, stingiest total in the league.
For Nuggets: Imagine a title-contending boxer who, for 30 seconds of every three-minute round, habitually wandered around the ring sticking his jaw out, his arms at his side. That’s how it seems every time Jokić heads to the bench. Denver’s struggles in so-called “non-Jokić minutes” have been chronicled throughout the big fellow’s prime – and helped him win, demonstrating his value. This season, the Nuggets boasted a plus-10.5 net rating with him on the court… and a minus-9.3 points per 100 possessions when he sat. The Nuggets’ top priority each spring, every series, is surviving when their triple-double threat gets a breather. It’s not just about the team’s backup center, it’s how integral Jokić is to running a fully functional attack.
1 key number to know
8.8 — In the regular season, the Thunder had the second-best turnover differential in the 48 seasons that turnovers have been counted. And in the first round, they committed 8.8 fewer turnovers than the Grizzlies, the second-biggest turnover differential in any playoff series in those same 48 years.
As was the case in the regular season, the Thunder had both the lowest turnover rate (10.3 per 100 possessions) and the highest opponent turnover rate (18.7 per 100) in the first round. On offense, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace combined for 25 assists and just three turnovers. On defense, they averaged 8.2 and 5.7 deflections per 36 minutes, the highest and fourth highest rates among 134 players who had played at least 50 playoff minutes through Friday.
The Nuggets ranked 25th in turnover differential (1.3 per game more than their opponents) in the regular season, and they had 12 more turnovers (54-42) than the Thunder over the four-game season series. But they were able to split the four games with advantages in shooting, free throw rate and rebounding percentage.
— John Schuhmann
The pick
Thunder in five. OKC learned a year ago how to navigate long layoffs between series. They didn’t rust because they never really rested, instead logging some intense and focused practices. The Nuggets, meanwhile, will either be well-oiled after their Game 7 dominance of the Clippers or a little fried from the quick turnaround to Monday. Denver’s Finals experience two years ago isn’t nothing, but the Thunder are younger, deeper, and more capable of shape-shifting with a far tighter defense.
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Steve Aschburner has written about the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Warner Bros. Discovery.
