Four main contenders have emerged in the race for the next pope, according to one leading betting site.
Why It Matters
The papal election is drawing intense global attention due to its potential to shape the future of the world’s largest Christian denomination which has more than 1.2 billion followers.
The selection of the next pope will influence doctrinal directions and address internal conflicts. The contest pits more progressive reformists against more traditionalist voices.
The stakes are compounded by lingering debates about transparency, governance, and the balance between tradition and modernity.
Cardinals greet each other after attending a mass on the fourth of nine days of mourning for late Pope Francis, in St. Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican, Tuesday, April 29, 2025. Cardinals greet each other after attending a mass on the fourth of nine days of mourning for late Pope Francis, in St. Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican, Tuesday, April 29, 2025. AP
What To Know
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, Cardinal Peter Turkson and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, have become the four leading contenders to become the next pope, according to crypto-powered gambling website Polymarket.
On the day Pope Francis died on April 21, Italian Cardinal Parolin’s chances reached the highest mark so far at 42 percent, according to the site’s tracker. Filipino Tagle’s neared 36 percent, Italian Zuppi hit 6.8 percent and Ghanain Turkson 6.5 percent.
The odds have shifted since, with Turkson’s chances jumping highest.
This week Turkson, who would become the first African pope in 1,500 years, has jumped from fourth to briefly second favorite.
At the time of publication, Vatican secretary of state Parolin was ahead with a 26 percent chance, followed by Tagle (21 percent), Turkson (19 percent) and Zuppi (13 percent).
Newsweek has broken down the background for each of the latest major players here.
The process of choosing the next pope involves the secretive papal conclave, in which cardinals vote behind closed doors inside the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel.
A two‐thirds majority is required to elect the new leader, a method honed over centuries.
The conclave has strict measures, which include the removal of electronic devices and constant security sweeps.
Who Is Cardinal Peter Turkson?
Ghanaian Cardinal Turkson, 76, is a former head of the Vatican’s justice and peace office, he combines progressive political views with conservative theological stances. Turkson opposed the use of condoms during the AIDS pandemic, although he spoke out about the possible criminalization of homosexuality in his home country.
In this combination image, Cardinal Peter Turkson attends the annual German Sustainability Award Design at Maritim Hotel on December 02, 2021 and President of Caritas Internationalis Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle makes a point during… In this combination image, Cardinal Peter Turkson attends the annual German Sustainability Award Design at Maritim Hotel on December 02, 2021 and President of Caritas Internationalis Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle makes a point during a press conference announcing the launch of a campaign on the plight of migrants to counteract mounting anti-immigrant sentiment in the U.S.2017. Getty/AP
What People Are Saying
Speaking to reporters ahead of his trip to Michigan, Trump was asked about the upcoming conclave process and whom he would like to see as the next pope.
“I’d like to be pope,” the president quipped. “That would be my number one choice. No, I don’t know, I have no preference…I must say we have a cardinal [Timothy Dolan, who has been the archbishop of New York since 2009] that happens to be out of a place called New York who’s very good.So, we’ll see what happens.”
Cardinal Dolan in a statement on the passing of Pope Francis: “I was honored to participate in the conclave that elected Pope Francis in 2013, and to have welcomed him here to New York in 2015. He touched us all with his simplicity, with his heart of a humble servant. Trusting in the tender and infinite mercy of Jesus, we pray that he is, even now, enjoying his eternal reward in heaven. Eternal rest grant unto him, O Lord, and let perpetual light shine upon him. May his soul, and the souls of all the faithful departed, rest in peace.”
What Happens Next
Cardinals from around the world will meet in a secret conclave inside the Sistine Chapel on May 7 to elect the next pope, the Vatican announced on Tuesday.
Only the 135 cardinals aged under 80 can elect the next pope. They will vote in rounds until one receives a two-thirds majority. There is no set time for how long a conclave may last, but the last two concluded within two days.
While bookmakers have focused on a handful of front-runners, recent history shows the eventual pope is often a surprise pick, with the voting process inside the Sistine Chapel frequently defying outside predictions.
The outside world will be watching Sistine Chapel’s chimney. If the smoke is black, there will be another round of voting while white smoke signals a new pope has been picked.
For many observers, these procedural details are as crucial as the ideological debates that the winners of these votes will need to navigate in a rapidly changing global context.
