In the famous words of Jim Carrey, “So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
The Rangers’ odds of winning the lottery for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft stand at 3%, to be exact, with the results scheduled to be revealed Monday at 7 p.m. on ESPN.
Crazier things have happened. The Blueshirts overcame slightly longer 2.5% odds in 2020, when the ping-pong balls bounced their way and sent them to the top of the draft to select Alexis Lafrenière with the first pick.
But in 97% likelihood they don’t hit the lotto, their 2024-25 season points total will leave them slotted at No. 11. And in that event, team president Chris Drury will be left with a difficult choice to make.
Weighing the decision
New York sent a top-13 protected first-round pick in this year’s draft to Vancouver as part of the Jan. 31 trade that landed center J.T. Miller. (The Canucks would quickly flip the pick to the Penguins.) But it was stipulated in the deal that if the Rangers landed inside the top 13, they would have the option of still forfeiting the pick or keeping it and sending a 2026 unprotected first-rounder instead.
Need a break? Play the USA TODAY Daily Crossword Puzzle.
For a team that just hired two-time Stanley Cup winning coach Mike Sullivan and expects to bounce back next season, hanging onto the No. 11 slot and surrendering a pick they hope will be at the back end of the 2026 first round may seem fairly obvious. But there’s more to consider.
For starters, the consensus among scouts and draft experts is that the 2026 class will be deeper than 2025. One went so far as to tell lohud.com, part of the USA TODAY Network, that they believe a 2026 pick in the 20s may hold similar value to No. 11 in this year’s draft.
That’s up for debate, but if the Rangers were to continue the downward spiral that began this season and land back in next year’s lottery – a very real possibility if Drury fails to make significant roster upgrades this summer – they’d be at risk of losing a high pick in a better draft with no trade protection.
Mike Sullivan: 7 questions facing Rangers’ new coach
Another consideration
Drury intends to avoid that worst-case scenario and will act accordingly, but having a 2026 first-round pick at his disposal could create another avenue to aggressively add this offseason.
Multiple league sources believe there will be an increase in offer sheets for restricted free agents this summer. The RFA market will feature a handful of enticing young talents, including forwards Matthew Knies, JJ Peterka, Marco Rossi and Gabriel Vilardi and defensemen Evan Bouchard, Nicolas Hague and Alexander Romanov, but draft capital will be required to pry them away from their current teams.
For example, any offer sheet that carries an average annual value between $4.58 million and $6.87 million – which is the floor for most players worth pursuing – would necessitate first- and third-round compensation. And since offer sheets can’t be signed until July 1, after the completion of the 2025 draft, acquiring teams must have 2026 picks ready to hand over in the required rounds.
It’s probably a long shot for the Rangers to go down that road, but it would eliminate the RFA possibility if Drury holds his 2025 first-rounder and sends the 2026 pick to Pittsburgh.
Regardless of Monday’s lottery results, he still has time to mull the decision. According to the original trade agreement with Vancouver, the Blueshirts have until 48 hours prior to the June 27 draft to inform the Penguins of their choice.
Chances are they keep the 2025 pick and bet on the team to improve next season, but there are compelling arguments both ways.
Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Read more of his work at lohud.com/sports/rangers/ and follow him on Twitter @vzmercogliano.
