📸: Alan Dobbins/RMNB

Just between you and me, I thought I’d have all summer to prepare things to say about Alex Ovechkin catching Wayne Gretzky. I couldn’t imagine he’d be on a better-than-50-goal pace at his age. I thought it was weird that other people thought he might do it this season.

I’ve written many times about how Ovechkin’s durability (R.M.N.B.) has become his most important trait, but even still I’m shocked at his ability to keep scoring like this. Here’s the difference in how he and Gretzky have scored after the age of 29.

Age Gretzky Ovechkin 30 41 50 31 31 33 32 16 49 33 38 51 34 34 48 35 31 24 36 25 50 37 23 42 38 9 31 39 0 41 Just one among his mounting accomplishments: he’s got more goals in his thirties than any other player – by a lot, leading Phil Esposito 419 to 374. Goal 420 will make him the greatest of all time, powered by what feels like a series of comebacks (doubters saying “Ovi’s washed”) dating back at least 14 years.

I’ve at times been among those doubters. Last summer, for example, I didn’t believe Ovi had the forward support he needed to get the record. “As great as he is,” I wrote in May, “[Dylan] Strome doesn’t have the playmaking Ovechkin needs.” Strome has assists on twenty Ovechkin goals this season, ten of them primary. Strome stepped up, proving me wrong, and he’s been just one of the many differences that have driven this historic run. The Capitals have been ovimaxxing, optimizing their captain all season long. We see that in the lines, ice time, deployments, and even the roster.

A depressing editorial footnote on the record: I’m not sure it could have happened if Backstrom, Oshie, and Kuznetsov were still on the active roster.

But that’s the only downer in this snapshot. The tables below show the team’s statistics while each player is on the ice during five-on-five play. Interesting points are highlighted for discussion. A glossary follows.

Forwards

Player TOI SA% xGF% GF% PDO Beauvillier 140 57.1 50.2 64.3 1.03 Eller 639 55.0 53.3 51.5 0.99 Protas 1056 53.6 51.6 61.6 1.04 Mangiapane 845 53.6 52.9 56.5 1.01 Dubois 1063 53.0 54.7 64.6 1.05 Raddysh 865 52.8 54.9 50.5 1.00 Frank 219 52.7 56.3 68.5 1.04 Wilson 1007 51.2 52.5 59.1 1.03 Dowd 917 50.4 52.2 52.1 1.00 McMichael 1028 50.3 52.6 61.6 1.04 Duhaime 823 49.9 49.7 51.7 1.01 Strome 1019 49.5 46.8 54.5 1.03 Ovechkin 759 48.9 44.0 59.7 1.05 Leonard 40 48.0 68.9 50.0 0.99

Defenders

Player TOI SA% xGF% GF% PDO Carlson 1241 54.7 54.1 57.2 1.01 Chychrun 1241 52.8 48.8 57.4 1.03 Fehervary 1164 51.8 50.6 51.8 1.00 Sandin 1285 50.7 53.2 58.9 1.03 van Riemsdyk 1182 49.9 49.3 61.1 1.05 Roy 1098 49.1 49.2 57.9 1.03

Glossary

• TOI – Time on ice in minutes. Only five-on-five play is included here.
• SA% – Shot-attempt percentage. The share of total shots attempted by Washington while the skater is on the ice during five-on-five play. 50 percent means even.
• xGF% – Expected goals percentage. The share of expected goals generated by Washington while the skate is on the ice during five-on-five play. Expected goals weighs how likely to become a goal each attempted shot is. 50 percent means even.
• GF% – Goals-for percentage. The share of total goals scored by Washington when the skater is on the ice during five-on-five play. 50 percent means even.
• PDO – The sum of Washington’s shooting percentage and saving percentage when the skater is on the ice during five-on-five play. One means league average. The acronym doesn’t stand for anything, and yes, I hate it.

Notes

• The Washington Capitals were the team behind 54.1 percent of the shot attempts since our last snapshot – sixth place. When those attempts are weighted by their likelihood to become goals, it’s 51.1 percent, 15th place. We don’t do special teams much in the snapshot, but the power play stunk (22nd place by goal rate) and the penalty kill was fine at 17th place. I look at those numbers wondering what it portends for the playoffs, and I have no idea. I’m not sure the team will even play like this come the postseason – but more on that in a moment.
• Get this: The Washington Capitals outscored opponents 19 to 8 during Pierre-Luc Dubois‘ five-on-five shifts since our last snapshot. Only St Louis’ Jordan Kyrou had a higher differential (plus-12) over that period. Dubois’ season-long on-ice goal percentage (GF%) is 65 percent, best among full-time Caps players. Because goalie Logan Thompson fell back to earth, PLD owns the sole title of Washington’s most valuable player.
• And it’s not particularly close. Dubois ranks among the best in the league in GAR – goals above replacement, a catch-all statistic for player quality, here calculated by Evolving Hockey. These are the top ten forwards – all great company:

• Tom Wilson, on a career-best 32-goal season, is up there too, but there’s evidence that he’s depended on Dubois for some of his success. When they’re on the ice together, the Caps control 51.9 percent of the shot attempts (wherein fifty percent is even and higher means better). When Dubois is on the ice without Wilson, the percentage is 53.4, but when Wilson is on the ice without Dubois, it’s 48.6 – less than even.
• Read this next part with emphasis: that does not mean Wilson is bad! He’s great! He’s having an amazing season! This just suggests that Dubois’ skillset is a critical complement to Wilson’s – and it underlines how good Dubois is.
• But enough about the MVP, let’s revisit lowly old Alex Ovechkin. The Caps control just 44.0 percent of the expected goals (xGF%, a proxy measurement for puck possession that accounts for the quality of shots taken by each team) when he’s on the ice, so obviously he’s a fraud. Don’t let the 59.7 percent of goals belonging to Washington distract you from the flimsy facade that is the supposed soon-to-be great goal-scorer of all time.

Alex Ovechkin ties Wayne Gretzky for the most goals in NHL history with 894

• I’m being silly, but it is important to acknowledge first that Ovechkin’s being really, really weird this season. Getting 59.7 percent of goals (elite) while controlling just 44.0 percent of expected goals (poor) is extremely uncommon. Of 5,447 player-seasons since 2007 with at least 600 minutes of five-on-five play, only 16 have seen a bigger gap between expected and actual. (Number one is Steve Ott with Buffalo in the shortened 2013 season, where the Sabres outscored opponents 22 to 15 while controlling just 40.2 percent of shot attempts. What the hell happened there.) Ovechkin doing what he’s doing is almost as extreme, but the reasons for that extremeness aren’t the same. They can’t be. We can’t let ourselves outthink ourselves here. The frontiers of athletic performance are weird. Cal and Lebron and even Phelps should be thought of firstly as freaks and secondarily as legends. When the player is so far out on the spectrum, us having more numbers doesn’t give us more insight; it just makes us annoying to talk to at parties. Sit back and watch the game. Dweeb.
• But his deployments, though. We need to talk about that. Alex Ovechkin of 2024-25 is currently the most offensively deployed player since the stat has been tracked. That means he is on the ice for far more faceoffs in the offensive zone than the defensive zone. Below is every forward in the data set. Out of 5,852, Ovi is first.

• It’s the entire team driving him to own the scoring title. Once it’s accomplished, will Spencer Carbery adjust – end the ovimaxxing, balance a bit more gingerly, maybe optimizing the full team for more success in the postseason? Keep an eye on those zone starts in the next few weeks.
• Sure seems like the front office made the right decision at the deadline. Anthony Beauvillier, in addition to being named like an RDR2 NPC who will give you a side quest to murder a Civil War veteran, has slotted in flawlessly – especially when on the fourth line with Nic Dowd and Brandon Duhaime. They outscored opponents five to three in 79 minutes, and they drove play convincingly – 57.8 percent of attempts, 53.9 percent of the expected goals – with tons of net-crashing. If I wanted to match a line against – let’s just say – Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, I’d definitely pick Dewey, Judy, and Bovy. Beauvillier can and has played up in the lineup, but the utility of a great shutdown line might be worth the foregone opportunity.
• I debated removing Ethen Frank from the snapshot. He’s still up with the big club and ineligible for the Bears’ postseason, but he’s suited up just twice since our last snapshot. That’s a frustrating ride-the-pine situation for a player we’d all like to see develop.
• On the other side, I added Ryan Leonard to the snapshot on a whim. He’s played only 40 minutes, so don’t pay too much attention to the numbers. Except this one: 14:20 average ice time per game. That’s a ton for a player this green. That’s more than Duhaime, Mangiapane, Raddysh, and Eller get. And playing in the top six in his debut? The team, much like Chris, clearly love this kid.
• I’m not going to lie: I don’t have much to say about the defense. Carbery has locked into the same pairs: Sandin and Carlson, Chychrun and TVR, and Fehervary and Roy. Of the three, Chychrun-TVR is the most offensively deployed. Sandin-Carlson is the best at driving play, and Fehervary-Roy is a sleeper who could surprise you.
• Martin Fehervary might have just played the best month of his career so far: eight points in 15 games, vastly outshooting opponents despite starting in the defensive zone a lot. He has had only one stinker in the sample, on ice for all three Panthers goals a couple weeks back. If there’s a blueliner who could have a Brooks Orpik 2018 story arc this spring, it’s Marty.

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