Palantir (PLTR) is set to report first quarter earnings after the bell Monday, with Wall Street analysts optimistic the AI software company will continue its rapid surge in revenue despite US defense budget cuts.

Here are key figures expected by Wall Street analysts, according to Bloomberg estimates:

• Adjusted diluted earnings per share: $0.13 v. $0.08 in Q1 2024
• Revenue: $862.94 million vs. $634.34 million in Q1 2024

NasdaqGS – Nasdaq Real Time Price • USD

Analysts project Palantir’s revenue from US government contracts will jump roughly 40% to just over $358 million, while revenue from deals with international governments is expected to jump 27% to roughly $100 million.

Meanwhile, Palantir’s commercial revenue is expected to grow nearly 34% to $400 million.

Palantir sells data analytics software to both governments and businesses. Its earnings and revenue have outperformed Wall Street’s expectations every quarter since 2022 as the company’s AI software for gathering battlefield data and identifying military targets has been increasingly used by the US government as well as those of other countries.

In February, the company gave an outlook for the 2025 fiscal year that surpassed Wall Street’s projections, sending the stock soaring 24% immediately following the results.

But shares tanked later that month when the Washington Post reported that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was looking to slash the Pentagon’s budget over the next five years. In April, Hegseth signed a memorandum to cut $5.1 billion in Defense Department contracts, including those “related to diversity, equity and inclusion, climate change, the department’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Palantir executives have dismissed concerns that the Trump regime would lead to spending cuts on its AI war tech.

“I think DOGE is going to bring meritocracy and transparency to government,” said Palantir chief technology officer Shyam Sankar in the company’s fourth quarter earnings call in February. DOGE stands for the Department of Government Efficiency, which is led by Elon Musk and was created by Trump to slash government funding. The department has been widely criticized for its sloppy accounting and faces a heap of lawsuits.

“We love disruption and whatever is good for America will be good for Americans and very good for Palantir,” added CEO Alex Karp.

Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies, speaks at the Hill and Valley Forum at the U.S. Capitol on April 30, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images) · Kevin Dietsch via Getty Images

And to be sure, the Trump administration has since proposed bolstering the Pentagon’s budget by 13% in 2026 to spend greater sums on other areas like AI while slashing funding for education, health, the environment, and social services.

“On the federal front with DOGE and budget cuts, we are not worried that Palantir will be on the dark side of these … budget cuts,” wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in a note to investors Monday morning. “Palantir is well positioned for this new disciplined spending environment at the Pentagon and this will ultimately be a positive growth catalyst as PLTR gets a bigger seat at the table in the Beltway.”

Palantir stock is up more than 64% in 2025.

The company was recently awarded a $30 million contract with ICE to surveil immigrants, though the deal has prompted concerns over potential violations of US citizens’ rights.

Palantir’s role in AI-enabled warfare and surveillance has also come under criticism over the years. Last year, a large-scale Nordic investor sold its holdings in the company over human rights concerns related to its work with the Israeli Defense Force.

Karp himself is known for his often-controversial views, saying in a November call with analysts that Palantir seeks to “bring violence and death to our [Americans’] enemies.”

Laura Bratton is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Bluesky @laurabratton.bsky.social. Email her at [email protected].

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