Preparing for Nvidia’s ‘Noisy’ Earnings

CC-Transcript

  • 00:00How do you manage what engineers clearly said is going to be noise on the first footing of the numbers? Sure, Caroline. I think we put this into short term versus long term context. I think in the short term, yes, we might have a noisy quarter and maybe this does not allow Nvidia stock to break out of its sort of 100 to 150 range that it’s been in over the last year. But I think over the long term, I think what we’re all looking for is that macro impact of the AI theme. Is it going to continue? Is the demand really there? And I think the answer is going to be yes. In the short term and the long term. For me, the question is what happens for India in China? Absolutely. I think everybody’s aware of the H 20 export ban and whether or not NVIDIA is going to potentially come up with a sort of new redesigned chip for that market. I think they’re likely to work on it. They’ve done it before and I think that’s going to help. But that’s the big question is what is China revenue going to look like for NVIDIA over the next six months as well as next year? And I echo what’s notable is Ed said at the top, this is a stock that, yes, you can see it’s rebounded hard since its lows in April, up 40%, but basically flat on the air. And so how are we thinking about the trade more broadly at this moment, geopolitical geopolitics? Does that counter what has been the bubble driver of the last couple of years? Yeah, I don’t know if geopolitics really counters it. I mean, clearly the terror situation is weighing on a lot of tech companies as well. And so I think it’s contributing to a lot of the noise that we’re seeing here. But I think over the long term, we know that the buildout for the infrastructure for A.I. continues and NVIDIA continues to benefit from that. And we’ve already heard a lot about that buoy the Middle East deal, Saudi Arabia, UAE. What more can Jensen deliver for you today? I think just the overall outlook regarding additional use cases, how much are Nvidia’s chips going to be utilized in Robotaxis and humanoid robotics? You know, I think those are additional areas of growth that can continue to propel NVIDIA stock higher over the long term. What is this like for you is a moment in time as an investor. Like I’m trying to think about something that’s analogous. And for me, the earnings call, it’s a little bit like Tesla and Elon in that you get the earnings release and you read through it and you think, okay, and then there’s a pre prepared remarks. But actually it all kind of hangs on the Q & A. And this man called Jensen Huang, who people call the godfather of AI, and some people call him something different. Just when you’re at your desk, how do you endure that? How do you play it? Sure I think we’re all listening for just the demand cuz the supply constraints really trying to understand the longer term sort of nature of this thematic, you know, cloud computing was something that came about and was very long and in duration in terms of its growth and it continues. Right. We want to know how long a ISE buildout is going to continue as we transition from training to inference and how long that continues to benefit NVIDIA. Do you say the attention to the technology story? Like if they tell you we have a new timeline for a product. Do you react to it? Only to the extent that it continues to help to propel the story. I mean, I think more so, the more important things that came out were like the Navy link fusion product that they talked about just the networking and allowing for additional CPU’s and ASICs to connect to the GPUs that that Nvidia produces. I think that allows for the overall growth story to continue for much longer and then it expands the total addressable market. So we like hearing things like that, you know, new additional sort of chips, you know, things that will follow, whether it’s. Rubin following Blackwell, we’d like to hear how that’s going and the impact on margins from a timing perspective. But the quarterly fluctuations aren’t going to sort of deter our long term thesis there. And are you fully over the anxiety around IPsec? Because today the our model has been upgraded, we understand. Did Jensen do enough in terms of clearly showing that inference is where it’s at? Okay. I think so. I think we’re seeing that across many sort of hyperscalers talking about this. And, you know, I do think that the Deep Sea story, although it was sort of jarring at the beginning, I think a lot of that really just came out of the fact that it came out of China. I think it had come out of the United States. It might not have been as jarring. But again, you know, I think this really just sort of expands the overall addressable market. I think the sensible place to ended on is a sort of chicken and egg debate. What’s more important for investors to look at a long term picture on NVIDIA or the HYPERSCALERS in their CapEx figures because we kind of done a juggle between the two? It’s a great question. I think it’s the CapEx spend. You know, one of the things that we continue to monitor is the overall CapEx spend from the HYPERSCALERS and it continues to grow. The growth rate has slowed down and we expect that to to slow down going forward. But that spend in terms of dollars continues to be very large and that will propel the overall infrastructure and the speed at which we all adopt. I.

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