The Baltimore Orioles host the Cincinnati Reds on April 20, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for Sunday at 1:35 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Orioles stared down the best pitcher in baseball through two weeks (Hunter Greene) and knocked him out after three innings. That was pivotal, as it evened the series up heading into the Sunday finale. The Orioles will look to pull out the series win with veteran Charlie Morton on the hill.
Find my Reds vs Orioles prediction for Sunday afternoon below.
Editor’s Note: The Reds have since named Brent Suter as their opener for today’s game since the time of writing.
Tail the Over Here!My Reds vs Orioles Prediction
- Reds vs Orioles pick:Over 9; bet to Over 9.5 (play to -120)
My Reds vs Orioles best bet is Over 9. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Orioles Odds
Sunday, April 20
1:35 p.m. ET
MLB Network
Reds OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline+1.5
-120
9
-115o / -105u
+170
Orioles OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline-1.5
+100
9
-115o / -105u
-205
Reds vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
LHP Brent Suter (CIN; opener)StatCharlie Morton (BAL)0-0W-L8-100.0fWAR (FanGraphs)-0.12.70 / 5.90ERA /xERA8.84/5.374.52 / 3.52FIP / xFIP5.776/4.980.75WHIP1.918%K-BB%8.9%40%GB%32.2%98Stuff+9499Location+87
Reds vs Orioles Preview, Prediction
Orioles Betting Preview: Morton Struggling with Accuracy
Charlie Morton looks like a 41-year-old pitcher. The Orioles attempted to replace Corbin Burnes with a pitcher well past his prime, and it hasn’t worked.
Morton’s baseball-savant page looks like a glacier. The blue circles are just overwhelming. The most concerning numbers are Morton’s 9th percentile average exit velocity, which shows how hard teams are crushing Morton’s offerings. Secondly, he’s walking 12.2% of batters and 5.4 per nine innings. Between Morton not throwing enough strikes and the ones he does throw getting drilled by the opponent, it’s pretty tough for him to post a good outing.
Baltimore’s offense has gotten close to breaking through, and it crushed Hunter Greene on Saturday. The offense starts and ends with Gunner Henderson. After setting the season on the IL, Henderson dealt with wholly unsustainable results, posting a .220 batting average compared to a .257 xBA. Better yet, Henderson ranks in the 100th and 99th percentiles in average exit velocity and hard hit rate.
He’s the piece that can help the Orioles’ offense jump from 13th in wRC+ (104) to a top-five offense in the sport. If Adley Rutschman starts hitting (he’s also been unlucky), then the Orioles’ batting order has the best top three in the AL with Cedric Mullins, Henderson, and Rutschman.
Reds Betting Preview: Expecting a Bullpen Game?
The Reds had tabbed Carson Spiers as their Sunday starter in Nick Lodolo’s place as he’s on paternity leave.
Since Hunter Greene couldn’t finish the fourth inning, Spiers threw four innings out of the bullpen. So, the Reds’ bullpen got the day off after a few taxing games of late, but it also means they don’t have a listed starter for tomorrow at the time of writing.
The Reds will either have to call someone up from Triple-A or roll with a bullpen game in Sunday’s duel.
A potential bullpen game looming is a disaster waiting to happen. The Reds’ bullpen is more due for regression than anyone else, as it ranks seventh with a 3.20 ERA but sits 25th with a 4.61 FIP. It’s only a matter of time until Cincinnati’s bullpen implodes, and looking for a long performance from the ‘pen could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
I don’t trust the Reds’ offense — they rank 26th in MLB with a 79 wRC+. That said, the Reds scored five runs on Saturday and eight on Friday with double-digit hits in both games.
The combination of Camden Yards being a hitter-friendly park and the Orioles’ shaky pitching staff should yield another strong game from the Reds’ offense.
The best hitter in the Reds’ lineup so far is Austin Hays, a former Orioles outfielder. Hays boasts a strong 192 wRC+ and has three homers. He’s picked up the slack from the team’s star, Elly De La Cruz, who’s gotten off to a rough start (93 wRC+).
Reds vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
Morton’s best days are long gone, and the Reds’ pitching options are pretty bleak.
I can’t see the total staying below double-digits here, especially with the Orioles starting to hit the ball better.
The Reds can cause problems for opponents when they reach base because the lineup features tons of speed. The issue is the Reds don’t get on base enough to use the speed to their advantage.
As long as Morton does what he does best, which is walking batters, then the Reds should stay active.
Pick: Over 9.5 (play to -120)
Premium picks, tools & analysis
Track & follow smart money
Biggest player prop edges
Real-time expert pick alerts
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
No play on the run line.
Over/Under
The pitching matchup seems to favor a high-scoring game, so I will lean toward the over.
Reds vs Orioles Betting Trends
Get the latest coverage on MLB Weather.
