While Kris Bubic and Clarke Schmidt could each have fine seasons ahead of them, tonight will not be their night. Expect both teams to contribute to the F5 innings Over 4.5.
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
Apr 16, 2025 • 14:24 ET • 4 min read
The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals will finish their series in the Bronx this evening.
Kansas City will look to avoid the sweep, and while we don’t have a clear view of the winner, my Royals vs. Yankees predictions do expect some fireworks.
I break it down here with my MLB picks for Wednesday, April 16.
Royals vs Yankees prediction
My Royals vs Yankees best bet: First-five innings Over 4.5 (-105 at Caesars)
Kris Bubic has had a sensational start to the season, and he’ll look to continue that when he takes the mound for the Kansas City Royals today. Entering this matchup, Bubic has made three starts and allowed just over one earned run once. While I’m a big Bubic fan, these starts come with a caveat.
That 0.96 ERA over three starts screams regression, with the 3.02 expected ERA attached. He’s faced three teams that aren’t particularly great against lefties. The Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, and Cleveland Guardians all rate in the bottom half of baseball in BABIP against southpaws, and all but one are in the bottom half of the league with isolated power against them.
There are no such issues with this New York Yankees team against left-handed pitching.
The Yankees boast the highest isolated power against LHP this season. That should open some eyes in this matchup, particularly when Bubic has had some hard-hit issues at various points in his career. The 37% rate this season is solid, but it’s not crazy good, and again, there is at least some regression coming.
Add in the fact that Aaron Judge has begun this year like he ended last year against lefties (hitting them at one of the best clips in baseball), and this Yankees team is a good candidate to get a few runs on the board early.
On the other hand, Clarke Schmidt is making his season debut after missing the Yankees’ first 17 games with rotator cuff tendinitis. He saw limited work last season because of a similar injury, but was solid when he did take the field. He’ll have big shoes to fill as the team continues to try to piece together the Gerrit Cole absence. While I’m a Schmidt fan long-term, this is a difficult matchup for him.
Schmidt is a very strikeout and whiff-reliant pitcher. The Royals have done a great job getting contact on pitches this season, with a Top-3 chase contact rate and a Bottom-3 whiff rate.
The righty will struggle to create swings and misses today, which will, in turn, cause issues on the basepaths behind him. Both hurlers have solid outlooks this season, but the matchup for each today is difficult.
Royals vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
F5 Over 4.5Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 RBI
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI
Another windy evening at Yankee Stadium should aid Bobby Witt Jr., with the winds flying out to right field and the Royals shortstop loving to go to the opposite field.
That makes him a legitimate home run threat, but he is well-positioned to connect with an extra-base hit because of Schmidt’s hard-hit issues. There’s value on his base total because of that, but the price on RBI is a little better.
At the same time, I’m interested in any Judge props tonight. He has feasted upon lefties throughout his career, particularly over the last couple of seasons. Being tucked in the third position gives him a great chance to put a run in.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Royals vs Yankees odds
Royals vs Yankees live odds
Royals vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +140 | New York -165
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-150) | New York -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Royals vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 97 of their last 176 games (+17.35 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Yankees.
How to watch Royals vs Yankees and game info
Location Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York Date Wednesday, 4-16-2025 First pitch 7:05 p.m. ET TV FanDuel Sports Network-Kansas City, Prime Video, SN+ Royals starting pitcher Kris Bubic
(2-1, 0.96 ERA) Yankees starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt
(5-5, 2.85 ERA)
Royals vs Yankees latest injuries
Royals vs Yankees weather
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