Spotify (SPOT) shares fell as much as 8% in early premarket trading Tuesday after the company reported disappointing user and financial guidance. The stock later pared some losses, down around 6% shortly after the market opened.
The company guided to second quarter monthly active users (MAUs) of 689 million, below the roughly 694 million analysts polled by Bloomberg had expected. Q2 guidance for operating income and gross margins also fell short of expectations.
In the first quarter, MAUs rose 10% year over year to 678 million—just shy of the 679 million analysts had expected. Premium subscribers increased 12% to 268 million, marking the strongest Q1 subscriber growth since 2020 and the second-highest net addition for any first quarter in the company’s history.
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“The underlying data at the moment is very healthy: engagement remains high, retention is strong, and thanks to our freemium model, people have the flexibility to stay with us even when things feel more uncertain,” Spotify CEO Daniel Ek said in the earnings release.
“So yes, the short term may bring some noise, but we remain confident in the long-term story, and the direction we’re heading in feels clearer than ever.”
Heading into the results, Wall Street analysts have said the music platform acts as a defensive play amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on Big Tech, similar to fellow streaming giant Netflix.
“It is our view that SPOT’s subscription model should be more defensive/utility-like amid the current macro uncertainty,” Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich wrote ahead of the results.
Spotify stock surged to all-time highs of around $652 in mid-February. Although the stock is off those records, it’s still climbed roughly 96% over the past year as of Tuesday’s open, a stark comeback from the record lows it faced in 2022.
In February, the company reported its first full year of profitability and also set quarterly record highs for revenue, gross margin, operating income, and free cash flow.
Read more about Spotify’s stock moves and today’s market action.
The company’s colossal run-up in shares follows an intense business overhaul, which has included everything from mass layoffs and C-suite shakeups to a shift away from podcast exclusivity, an area it had aggressively pursued.
Spotify has drastically scaled back its podcast investments after spending $1 billion to push into the market between 2019 and 2021. It has since cut costs and narrowed its content focus, though it remains committed to the medium.
On Monday, Spotify said it paid more than $100 million to podcast publishers and podcasters worldwide in the first quarter, reflecting what it called “our deep commitment to the creator economy.” That figure includes payments to creators across all formats and agreements, including marquee names like Joe Rogan and Alex Cooper.
Spotify stock is up 110% over the past year. (AP Photo/Richard Drew, File) · ASSOCIATED PRESS
At the company’s 2022 Investor Day, Spotify set seemingly lofty objectives that included long-term gross margin targets between 30% and 35%. At the time, the company had been struggling to turn a profit, with its gross margin stuck at around 25%.
Those trends began to reverse in 2024 as the company raised prices for the second time in less than a year and introduced a higher-priced audio “bundle” that includes music, podcasts, and audiobooks. It also rolled out an audiobooks-only plan and a music-only streaming tier in an effort to cater to a variety of consumers.
Spotify reported Q1 margins of 31.6%, a slowdown from the record 32.2% the company reported in Q4 but just ahead of Wall Street estimates. The company guided to second quarter gross margins of 31.5% compared to consensus expectations of 31.6%.
Analysts have warned that the pace of margin expansion may slow this year after the metric jumped by over 500 basis points in 2024. Additionally, the company’s recently renewed deals with several of the largest music labels are expected to slightly weigh on future results.
Looking ahead, advertising revenue will be closely watched, especially in the face of a weak macro environment. Advertising currently makes up about 12% of Spotify’s total revenue.
In the first quarter, more than 10,000 advertisers used the platform’s new tools, according to Spotify. That’s a 21% increase year over year and the first time Q1 surpassed Q4 in active advertisers.
Additionally, Spotify’s advertising business delivered 5% year-over-year growth on a currency-neutral basis. Excluding the short-term impact of strategic initiatives, such as optimizing licensed podcasts and rolling out the Spotify Partner Program, advertising growth was in the low double digits.
“Despite the overall uncertainty, the competitive moat is deepening and the long-term outlook is positive with several levers like potential price increases, a new superfan tier, a bigger ad push and new features like video podcasts,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Geetha Ranganathan wrote in reaction to the results.
On the earnings call, Ek said Spotify now sees pricing as a key growth lever as the platform matures, but stressed that any increases will be gradual and strategic.
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Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at [email protected].
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