Stock Bulls Fuel Best Winning Run Since March 2022: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders are cautiously adding fuel to the stock rebound, in a high-stakes bet that Corporate America will weather slowing economic growth and tariff-fueled disruptions to earnings.

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Investors looked past weak economic data to send the S&P 500 up 7.5% in six days, the biggest gain for such a span since March 2022. Equities earlier fell as some industry giants pulled their earnings outlooks amid uncertainties around the impacts of President Donald Trump’s trade war. Investors favored short-dated Treasuries as they brace for a further slowdown in US activity.

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A cohort of stock bulls are fueling a comeback in equities, even as Trump’s tariff turmoil shows no sign of letting up with the economic toll rising by the day. One theory holds that investors are fearful of missing out on the early phase of the market bounce, mindful of the long history of US rebounds.

Add bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to prevent a recession, and a risk-on investment case may build.

Yet after cruising along comfortably for most of last year, the world’s largest economy lost altitude at the start of 2025 as consumers tired and the trade deficit ballooned on a tariff-related scramble for imports. Data on Tuesday showed a slide in both consumer confidence and job openings.

“Many still calling for a recession and even lower equity levels, but we think the ‘Trump put’ is real for equities while the ‘Fed put’ is real for the economy,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “And while tops and bottoms are hard to recognize as they are happening, we think the worst is behind us.”

At HSBC Holdings Plc, a group of strategists cut their year-end S&P 500 target to 5,600 from 6,700, saying tariffs and weaker-than-expected US economic growth will pressure corporate earnings.

“We expect the market narrative will flip-flop between recession and stagflation until tariff turmoil subsides, the Fed starts easing, and/or inflationary pressures fail to build up,” strategists including Nicole Inui wrote in a note to clients.

Corporate Highlights:

  • United Parcel Service Inc. expects to cut 20,000 jobs this year and close dozens of facilities as it dramatically reduces shipments for e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc.
  • General Motors Co. is pulling earnings guidance for 2025 and putting $4 billion in share buybacks on hold until it has more clarity on the impact of US tariffs.
  • JetBlue Airways Corp. is the latest US carrier to pull its full-year financial outlook as President Donald Trump’s trade war erodes demand for travel.
  • Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. raised its profit outlook for the year as cruise demand continues to defy the increasingly dire situation of the wider travel market.
  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. lowered its earnings forecast for 2025, as growing uncertainty about the US economy weighs on future travel demand.
  • Honeywell International Inc. raised its full-year guidance for earnings per share, saying it will offset about $500 million in tariff exposure with price changes and other actions to protect its bottom line.
  • Coca-Cola Co. posted quarterly profit that beat Wall Street expectations as price-conscious consumers continued to purchase the company’s beverages despite worsening sentiment.
  • Kraft Heinz Co. trimmed its annual sales and profit outlook, citing worsening consumer sentiment and the cost of tariffs.
  • PayPal Holdings Inc. left its full-year forecast for earnings unchanged even after reporting a stronger first quarter than analysts were expecting, citing “uncertainty in the global macro environment.”
  • NXP Semiconductors NV announced a new chief executive officer as part of its quarterly earnings report and warned that tariff threats had created “a very uncertain environment.”
  • Spotify Technology SA reported operating profit that missed estimates even as it saw a surge in subscribers in the first quarter.
  • Pfizer Inc. is cutting at least another $1.2 billion from its spending while the company searches for its next big hit after its obesity pill failed.
  • Hims & Hers Health Inc. soared after Novo Nordisk A/S said it would sell its popular weight-loss drug Wegovy for a reduced price on several telehealth platforms.
  • Altria Group Inc. reaffirmed its full-year profit guidance even as the Marlboro maker wrestles with weak cigarette and oral tobacco product sales.
  • S&P Global Inc. posted better-than-consensus results for the first quarter that were boosted by rising revenue in its bond rating business. The firm also said it plans to spin off its automotive intelligence unit.

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