For Mariners fans, this offseason felt excruciatingly slow. A front office known for its manic roster machinations spent most of the winter sitting on its hands while the hot stove boiled on. For all their passivity — and the grief they received over their inactivity — the Mariners enter the season in a pretty favorable position. FanGraphs sees them as the best team in the AL West and second in the entire AL behind the Yankees with 61.4% playoff odds. Baseball Prospectus is a little less optimistic, seeing the M’s a step behind the Rangers but with more favorable 68.8% playoff odds. Granted, those odds have more to do with the general mediocrity of the entire AL rather than anything Seattle did this offseason to bolster their roster.

You can look at it two ways: 1) the Mariners have a solid roster anchored by two superstars at up-the-middle positions and one of the best rotations in the league and didn’t need to make any major additions or 2) the Mariners have a solid roster that needed just a little bit more to really push them over the hump into rarified territory for the ballclub. Either way, they should be right in the thick of the playoff hunt this year. Your optimism is likely skewed by which of those two opinions about the roster you ascribe to. Me? I fall on the more optimistic side of the ledger. This is a good ballclub that can easily take advantage of a wide open playoff race. Go M’s.

Athletics Mariners Athletics Mariners Game 1 Thursday, March 27 | 7:10 pm RHP Luis Severino RHP Logan Gilbert 40% 60% Game 2 Friday, March 28 | 6:40 pm LHP Jeffrey Springs RHP Luis Castillo 44% 56% Game 3 Saturday, March 29 | 6:40 pm RHP Osvaldo Bido RHP Bryce Miller 43% 57% Game 4 Sunday, March 30 | 1:10 pm LHP JP Sears RHP Bryan Woo 39% 61%

Overview Athletics Mariners Edge Overview Athletics Mariners Edge Batting (wRC+) 101 (8th in AL) 104 (6th in AL) Mariners Fielding (OAA) -45 (15th) -17 (11th) Mariners Starting Pitching (FIP-) 115 (14th) 92 (3rd) Mariners Bullpen (FIP-) 96 (7th) 99 (8th) Athletics

Welcome to another year of series previews. If you’re a regular Lookout Landing reader, welcome back. If you’re a new face, welcome home. This will be my eleventh year writing these previews. Above, you’ll see a brief overview of the upcoming series: probable pitchers, game times, and a rundown of the Mariners and their opponents. Below, you’ll see the Mariners’ opponents laid out in more detail: projected lineups, key players, and pitcher analysis. Finally, you’ll get a view of the big picture: AL West and Wild Card standings. As always, I appreciate your feedback and hope that these features continue to be helpful and educational.

The Athletics are a team on the rise. Their exit from Oakland and the uncertainty surrounding their future home in Las Vegas (or Sacramento or elsewhere) has been the defining storyline for this franchise for the last few years, but they’ve quietly and quickly rebuilt a roster with a bunch of homegrown talent. And they actually spent some money this offseason! They’ve got a bunch of young hitters who should form a solid core for this team and their pitching should be improved with the offseason additions of Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs. They’re not quite done with their rebuilding cycle, though they’re on track to really break out as soon as they move to Las Vegas in a couple of years.

Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+ Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+ Lawrence Butler RF L 451 23.9% 7.8% 0.228 130 Brent Rooker DH R 614 28.8% 9.6% 0.269 164 JJ Bleday CF L 642 19.5% 10.4% 0.194 120 Shea Langeliers C R 534 27.2% 7.7% 0.226 109 Tyler Soderstrom 1B L 213 24.9% 9.4% 0.196 114 Gio Urshela 3B R 461 15.6% 5.0% 0.111 81 Seth Brown LF L 400 28.0% 6.3% 0.148 91 Jacob Wilson SS R 103 9.7% 7.8% 0.065 86 Max Muncy 2B R 223 27.0% 7.7% 0.233 124

The A’s have two legitimate offensive pieces to build around in Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler, both of whom earned lengthy contract extensions this offseason. Rooker’s transformation from a free swinging bopper to a middle-of-the-order power threat has been fascinating to watch. His batted ball quality has always been top notch, but last year, he improved his plate discipline significantly, cutting his strikeout rate by four points. He’s a much more complete hitter now. Butler’s breakout came almost out of nowhere last year. He had flashed some intriguing upside in the minors but really put everything together in July. Like Rooker, his big step forward stemmed from a vastly improved approach at the plate. Behind those two lineup pillars, the A’s have a favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award starting for them at shortstop in Jacob Wilson. The son of former Mariner Jack Wilson, the younger Wilson has elite bat-to-ball skills and hit over .400 across 226 minor league plate appearances last year.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

This section looks a little different this year. Instead of combining each pitcher’s stats and arsenal stats into one table, I’ve separated them out into two tables and added the Mariners’ starter to the first table. This should provide a little better readability on mobile and give me an avenue to discuss the pitching matchup should anything stand out on that front.

Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Luis Severino 182 21.2% 7.9% 12.3% 46.0% 3.91 4.21 Logan Gilbert 208 2/3 27.4% 4.6% 12.9% 45.1% 3.23 3.27

Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Four-seam 35.7% 96.2 101 103 118 0.296 Sinker 24.6% 95.6 102 79 115 0.357 Cutter 8.1% 92.6 97 106 125 0.301 Changeup 7.5% 86.1 98 61 100 0.380 Slider 7.0% 86.8 138 81 118 0.275 Sweeper 17.2% 85.1 138 110 100 0.217

The A’s handed out the largest free agent contract in their franchise history to Luis Severino this offseason. There are worse ways to spend money in baseball, but Severino definitely isn’t the ace he once was with the Yankees. He did complete a pretty successful comeback campaign last year with the Mets, completing a full season for the first time since 2018 with some solid results. He added a sinker to his pitch mix last year and it really helped him keep the ball on the ground more often to go along with the swing-and-miss stuff already present in his arsenal. He’s got name recognition and isn’t that far removed from being a frontline starter. That’s a valuable thing for the pitching starved A’s.

Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Jeffrey Springs 33 26.1% 7.7% 12.8% 38.0% 3.27 3.98 Luis Castillo 175 1/3 24.3% 6.5% 12.3% 39.3% 3.64 3.91

Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Four-seam 42.5% 89.8 86 80 88 0.337 Cutter 2.3% 85.3 Changeup 31.7% 79.6 103 145 125 0.270 Slider 20.4% 82.9 118 67 91 0.298 Sweeper 3.2% 78.3

Jeffrey Springs was the other big offseason acquisition for the A’s after they brought him over in a big trade with the Rays. Springs enjoyed a breakout season in 2022 but was injured early in the next season and needed Tommy John surgery, costing him the rest of 2023 and most of 2024. His stuff was pretty diminished in his seven big league starts last year, but his surface level stats looked pretty good. When he’s at his peak, his changeup is a pretty deadly weapon and he emerged from his injury rehab with a new cutter under his belt. He’ll need to find some extra velocity on his fastball to hit his ceiling — he lost more than a tick off his heater last year — but his secondary offerings are all top notch.

Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Osvaldo Bido 63 1/3 24.3% 10.0% 3.8% 29.6% 3.41 3.36 Bryce Miller 180 1/3 24.3% 6.4% 9.9% 38.1% 2.94 3.58

Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Four-seam 40.1% 94.8 107 133 133 0.292 Sinker 9.2% 95.0 108 101 63 0.295 Cutter 14.3% 86.9 117 80 104 0.257 Changeup 15.3% 88.9 79 112 136 0.171 Slider 21.1% 85.8 112 77 113 0.235

Osvaldo Bido produced a pretty quiet breakout during the second half of the season last year. Across eight starts from late-July to early-September, he produced an excellent 3.56 ERA and a 3.21 FIP. The key for him was unlocking some newfound command of his fastball, allowing the rest of his deep repertoire to play up. He had always been a little wild which is why he never got a long run to prove he could stick in the majors, but if he’s suddenly able to bring his walk rate down under double digits, he’s got the secondary weapons to thrive. His slider is a good bat-missing weapon against right-handers and his changeup is deadly against lefties.

Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP JP Sears 180 2/3 18.1% 6.5% 10.8% 37.3% 4.38 4.71 Bryan Woo 121 1/3 21.4% 2.8% 9.4% 40.6% 2.89 3.40

Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Four-seam 36.3% 91.9 88 120 109 0.330 Sinker 10.6% 90.0 73 68 82 0.344 Changeup 19.2% 84.0 75 62 107 0.333 Slider 9.8% 79.3 124 74 98 0.350 Sweeper 24.1% 78.7 124 61 106 0.286

JP Sears is a familiar foe, having been drafted and developed by the Mariners and spending the last three years as the A’s de facto ace. His extreme fly ball tendencies were lessened a touch last year after he added a sinker to his pitch mix, but he still allowed 28 home runs to fly over the fence. Despite the continued dinger problem, he actually lowered his ERA a bit while still outpacing his FIP and xFIP by pretty wide margins. Thankfully, the A’s won’t need to count on him to lead the rotation anymore.

The Big Picture:

Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Astros 88-73 0.547 — Lost in the Wild Card round Mariners 85-77 0.525 3.5 So close, yet so far Rangers 78-84 0.481 10.5 Ouch Athletics 69-93 0.426 19.5 Not last! Angels 63-99 0.389 25.5 Ooof