The Golden State Warriors open their first-round series in the NBA playoffs against the Houston Rockets on Sunday, and oddsmakers are expecting this matchup to be a close one.
Houston is set as a 1.5-point favorite at home, as this young core is looking to beat the Warriors for the third time this season. During the regular season, Golden State was 3-2 against Houston, but the Rockets ended up winning the last matchup – holding Steph Curry to just three points in that game.
Golden State has been dominant when it scores at least 110 points this season, going 39-12, but Houston has held it below that total in four of the five meetings between these teams.
This is truly a clash of styles – and eras. Golden State loves to play small ball and has veterans like Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green with tons of playoff experience. Meanwhile, Houston is a younger team that has become dominant on the offensive glass by playing bigger lineups – sometimes putting Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun on the court together.
Can the inexperienced Rockets pull off a series upset since oddsmakers have set the Warriors as the favorite? It all starts in Game 1.
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Sunday’s contest.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Moneyline
Total
Over his last two playoff runs, Jimmy Butler has averaged 27.4 and 26.9 points per game, and he’s coming off a 38-point game in the play-in tournament against Memphis.
There simply is a different level of aggressiveness that Butler goes to in the playoffs, and the Warriors are going to need every bit of that if they want to compete for a title.
If Houston sells out to stop Curry again, don’t be shocked if Butler looks to control the offense and attack mismatches against Jalen Green on Fred VanVleet. The six-time All-Star has now scored 24 or more points in each of his last four games (including the play-in game).
Amen Thompson has been a sneaky good playmaker for the Rockets this season, averaging 3.8 assists per game. He’s seen that number tick up as of late, picking up five or more dimes in seven of his last nine games.
During that stretch, Thompson averaged 5.2 assists per game for Houston, and he’s averaging 9.8 potential assists per game since the All-Star break. We know Thompson will play heavy minutes because of his defensive ability, but there’s some value with this prop at plus money on the offensive end on Sunday.
Four of the five meetings between the Warriors and Rockets this season have fallen short of this total, with the only one that went over being an overtime win for Golden State.
Houston has one of the better defenses in the NBA – fifth in defensive rating – and the Warriors were No. 1 in the league in defensive rating after the All-Star break.
The Curry-Butler duo certainly screams high-scoring offense when it comes to Golden State, but these teams have played multiple games in the 2024-25 season that neither squad cracked 100 points.
On top of that, Houston has the worst field goal percentage in the NBA in clutch time (games within five points in the final five minutes). So, if this game comes down to the wire, points will likely be at a premium.
I believe that this total is being juiced up a bit by Golden State’s recent offensive play, but let’s not forget that these teams combined for less than 210 points in their last meeting in April.
I’m expecting a defensive slog on Sunday.
Pick: UNDER 213 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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