What’s the worst part of this skid? There are many to choose from. You could be obvious: the skid itself. Or maybe a bit more involved: that the Braves started 0-7 while the Phillies are 5-1. Maybe you hate being alone as a winless team. Maybe it’s that the skid has taken place amid Reynaldo Lopez’ injury and Jurickson Profar’s suspension. Maybe you just really hate losing to the Dodgers.

I know what my answer is: whatever is going on with the offensive approach. If you haven’t paid attention to the myriad comments on this topic over the past week-plus, you should be aware of two facts:

• The Braves are currently middle-of-the-pack (17th) in z-contact rate (contact rate on pitches within the strike zone), after finishing no higher than eighth-lowest in any year since 2019, including lowest in multiple years, and lowest collectively over the 2019-2024 span.
• The Braves are currently fourth-to-last in xwOBACON (quality of contact), after finishing second last year, first in 2020-2023, and third in 2019. In fact, this is so eerily different it feels surreal: from 2019-2024, the difference between the Braves’ xwOBACON (.407) and the second-place team (Yankees, .392) is bigger than the difference between the Yankees and the sixth-place team (Phillies, .379). And, again, they were second in 2024, even while everyone was hurt. There are only four Braves with an above-average xwOBACON right now: Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II, and Eli White. (Even last year, with a bunch of backups, of the 16 players that got semi-regular playing time at any point, 11 had an above-average xwOBACON, with nine guys coming in above .400, and Sean Murphy missing the chance to join the 11 by .003)

You don’t need this as additional confirmation, but the Braves also went, as a team, from:

• 2023 – fastest average swing, far and away the highest “fast swing rate,” third-longest average swing length, best “blast” rate, to
• 2024 – second-fastest average swing, still highest “fast swing rate,” longest average swing length, elevated “blast” rate no matter how it’s considered, to…
• 2025 – tenth-slowest average swing, fifth-highest “fast swing rate,” 12th-longest average swing length, sixth-lowest “blast rate.”

The team is third in walk rate, fifth in strikeout rate, and fourth from the bottom in swing rate overall. It’s a bizarre change from what they’ve done before, and while I get the rationale for it, the players have utterly failed to execute or make good on the change. Maybe it’ll improve, but it’s concerning because it could be a sign of extra flailing going forward as they either abandon the change and try to revert back to what worked earlier, or stick with it amid the growing agonies (they’re not just growing pains at this point) in the hopes of making it work.

Daily Notes

Record: 0-7

Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA: n/a (Season rank: 30th | 24th)

Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA allowed: n/a (Season rank: 24th | 22nd)

Yesterday’s homers: n/a

Yesterday’s homers allowed: n/a

Record when out-xwOBAing: 0-3 (League: 72-25)

Record when out-xwOBAed: 0-4 (League: 25-72)

Record when out-wOBAing: 0-1 (League: 85-13)

Record when out-wOBAed: 0-6 (League: 13-85)

Record when outhomering: 0-1 (League: 55-12)

Record when outhomered: 0-4 (League: 12-55)