Why is Shohei Ohtani's pitching comeback taking so long?

WASHINGTON — Inside an empty stadium, the most popular ballplayer on Earth got to work.

Shohei Ohtani strolled out to the outfield grass at Nationals Park on an abnormally brisk April afternoon. In his wake strode a small army of Los Angeles Dodgers coaches and staff. Ohtani, who two days prior had gone 3-for-4 with a home run and a triple, picked up a ball and began to throw.

It being two hours before first pitch of Wednesday’s game, the yard had yet to open to the public, and so the stands were almost completely vacant. As Ohtani threw, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts conducted his daily media session, capturing the attention of the club’s rather large media contingent. The only people watching Ohtani, besides the throng of Dodgers pitchers waiting to stretch, were a few Nats Park ushers, a handful of well-placed media members and a security guard or two. When Ohtani sailed one clanging into the seats, an opportunistic usher slid the prized ball into his pocket.

Eventually, Ohtani and his Dodgers shadow, the lot of them bundled in winter wear, moved to the visiting bullpen. There, the Japanese supernova conducted a brief bullpen session, throwing about 15 pitches off the mound to a squatting catcher. He threw fastballs and splitters but no breaking balls. He smiled with glee after unleashing a quality offering and grimaced with frustration when he missed a spot.

Not knowing the context, the entire scene might’ve looked rather routine for a professional baseball player. But very, very little about Shohei Ohtani is ever routine.

Over the past decade, Ohtani grew into a singular force because of his two-way skill set. Nobody else in the entire sport both hits and pitches, let alone at the elite level Ohtani can. But since undergoing elbow surgery in September 2023, the three-time MVP has not toed a big-league rubber. In the time since then, he has switched teams, endured a gambling scandal that sent his former interpreter to prison, won an NL MVP award and captured his first World Series crown. His fame, already sky-high, has multiplied exponentially.

Yet his path back to the two-way lifestyle has been anything but simple. As of Thursday, one year, six months and 21 days have elapsed since he went under the knife on Sept. 19, 2023. Considering where the Dodgers dynamo is in his recovery process, there’s still quite a ways to go.

“I’m still at the stage in which I have limits on the types of pitches I can throw and limits on speed,” Ohtani told media, including Yahoo Sports, through interpreter Will Ireton this week.

Ohtani still hasn’t thrown breaking balls off a mound. He hasn’t thrown all his pitches with 100 percent effort. His next major milestone will be throwing live batting practice to hitters, something he almost accomplished before his throwing program was paused during last year’s playoff run. At this point, the best-case scenario could see Ohtani back in the Dodgers rotation about six weeks from now, but neither player nor team has offered anything resembling a definitive timeline.

The general expectation around DodgerLand right now is that an Ohtani pitching comeback before the end of June looks unlikely. A return around the All-Star break in mid-July would put Ohtani’s total rehab time at about 22 months, significantly longer than the typical Tommy John recovery. Compare that to fellow Dodger Tony Gonsolin, who underwent Tommy John just 19 days before Ohtani. Gonsolin, currently on the IL due to a back problem, made his first minor-league rehab start on Sept. 10, one year and nine days after surgery.

That said, it’s worth noting: At no point in the process have Dodgers brass used the word “setback” to describe the trajectory of Ohtani’s recovery.

By recovering from a second elbow surgery while continuing to bat every game, Shohei Ohtani is once again doing something unprecedented. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

(ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Why so long? Ohtani has, at nearly every moment in his illustrious career, blown past expectations and reshaped the game to his will. What about this particular process has resulted in the opposite?

An important piece of context: This is Ohtani’s second elbow surgery, after he had Tommy John at the end of the 2018 season. Teams often craft a more conservative return timeline for players who have already undergone the operation. Jacob deGrom, for instance, needed about 15 months of recuperation and rehab before his comeback from a second Tommy John last season. Still, the 20-22-month timeline feels a bit extreme.

A different injury, the one Ohtani suffered during the playoffs, might be playing a role. During Game 2 of the World Series, the Dodgers leadoff man hurt his left shoulder while sliding into second base on a steal attempt. He played through the issue for the remainder of the Fall Classic but underwent surgery to repair the shoulder in November. That operation would’ve necessitated a rehab process, one that almost certainly forced Ohtani to pause or otherwise reorient his throwing program, further extending his pitching timeline.

The rigors of being an every-day hitter are also, unquestionably, a factor. No other pitcher in league history has attempted a second elbow surgery comeback while simultaneously serving as an MVP-level bat in the lineup for every game. By continuing to hit, Ohtani simply can’t focus 100 percent of his energy on his pitching rehab. He has, as was the case last season, found pockets of time to throw before games. And whenever he returns, Ohtani will play both sides, as he has done for stretches in his career. But given his unique situation, it’s understandable that he and the Dodgers would play things safe.

The Dodgers, more specifically their roster and their vision, are the last major dynamic at play here. Thanks to deep pockets and a superb player development system, the defending champs boast a Mariana-deep collection of starting pitchers. Even with Blake Snell on the shelf, Los Angeles has Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki and Dustin May in the rotation. Depth options such as Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, Ben Casparius, Nick Frasso and Bobby Miller aren’t awe-inspiring, but they provide a valuable layer of cushion. Add the will-return-at-some-point-this-year trio of Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan, and you can understand why the Dodgers aren’t rushing Ohtani back.

The Dodgers’ offense is formidable enough to overcome subpar starting performances, as was the case Wednesday against Washington. A year ago, this team won 95 games, the NL West and the World Series despite a rotating carousel of starting pitchers. They’re set up even better this go-around. And because the Dodgers are a near-lock to make the playoffs, timing Ohtani’s return with those most meaningful games makes a whole lot of sense.

The only possible concern with L.A.’s Ohtani strategy is if the player himself grows frustrated with the methodical approach. That does not, in any way, appear to be the case right now. Roberts, when describing the team’s level of collaboration with its star, used the word “lockstep” this week.

Ohtani, through Ireton, reflected that sentiment: “The Dodgers are consulting with the doctors just to make sure that, since this is my second operation, it’s really important to be conservative and be thoughtful.”

And so, the impatient public, the millions and millions of Ohtani fans around the world, will just have to wait a little longer.

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Why is Shohei Ohtani’s pitching comeback taking so long?

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