It’s Christmas time in the NBA! The playoffs are finally here, and fans are starting to delude themselves into thinking their team will go 16-0.
Thankfully, this year’s postseason seems poised to be exciting from start to finish. The East isn’t as loaded as the West, but it still has a few intriguing series that could start/heighten some rivalries.
So, without further ado, it’s time to preview the first-round matchups and pick the winner from the East.
Note: all stats used are from after the All-Star break
#1 Cleveland vs #8 Atlanta/Miami
This series will be a bloodbath regardless of who Cleveland plays.
On paper, Atlanta matches up better with the Cavs — that is to say, they might win one game to Miami’s zero. The Hawks’ 30.1% offensive rebound rate (7th league-wide) is the one area that could give Cleveland some trouble, as the only real weakness of the one-seed is their lackluster defensive rebounding rate (70%, 27th). Atlanta also has the second-highest transition frequency at 17.7%, and the Cavs are mediocre at limiting those opportunities — opposing teams run out on Cleveland 15.1% of the time, ranking 16th in the league.
What about Miami? Umm… they could intimidate Cleveland with their culture, I guess? Jokes aside, the Heat can stay competitive in the series by limiting the Cavs from getting easy buckets. Miami is second in the league in limiting fouls, giving opponents a free-throw rate of just 15.2 per 100 possessions. Their 74.3% defensive rebounding rate is also fifth league-wide, so Cleveland will need to work to create second-chance opportunities.
And after saying all that, this series will end in an easy gentlemen’s sweep at most.
Prediction: Cavs in 5 vs Atlanta, Cavs in 4 vs Miami
#2 Boston vs #7 Orlando
Key question: how much can Orlando limit Boston’s threes?
Just like the 1v8 matchup, the lower seed has no chance in this series — outside of game 1, where Orlando always plays like the 96’ Bulls.
The Magic aren’t going to win, but they can still gain some valuable experience and insight as to what their team needs moving forward. One way they can make life difficult for Boston, though, is by limiting the Celtics’ volume of threes.
Orlando has allowed only 36.2% of opponent shots to come from deep, which is good for fourth league-wide. Of course, Boston is known for getting up more threes than DLo after a loss, as they’ve led the league all year in three-point volume at over 50%.
Forcing the Celtics off the line would result in them attempting more shots around Orlando’s basket, but the Magic are also an elite rim-protecting team — they’re fifth in the league by allowing just 63.1% shooting within four feet of the basket. However, the Celtics are also elite at finishing in that area by scoring on 72.3% of their attempts, good for third league-wide. It’s a pick-your-poison situation for Orlando, but given Boston’s propensity to struggle when they’re not taking/making threes, forcing them to drive more is certainly the lesser of two evils.
And after saying all that, I’ll be generous and give the Magic one game.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
#3 New York vs #6 Detroit
Key question: where will Detroit’s secondary offense come from?
Cade Cunningham will need to be the best player in this series if the Pistons hope to have a chance. That’s not an outlandish statement given his All-NBA caliber season and Jalen Brunson just returning from injury, but even if Cade’s spectacular, Detroit still needs to find enough scoring to keep up with New York.
Jalen Duren, in particular, needs to have a big series. The Knicks’ defensive limitations start with KAT, who was one of the league’s worst rim protectors in the regular season. New York has allowed 68.3% opponent shooting around the rim and 33.3% of opponent shots have come in that area, too – both marks ranking 24th league-wide. That bodes well for Duren, whose 73% finishing at the basket ranks in the 73rd percentile among all bigs.
Another strength of Detroit’s is foul drawing – they’ve made 21.7 free throws per 100 shot attempts since the All-Star break, good for 5th in the league. The Knicks have done an admirable job of limiting fouls of their own, as opposing teams only have a 17.5 free throw over that same span. However, KAT has a spotty track record of committing fouls at the most inopportune times, so the Pistons would be smart to put him in as many actions as possible, including having him switched onto Cade in the pick-and-roll.
If everything breaks right, the Pistons could make this a long series and even pull off an upset. Still, it’s hard to bet against New York when they have four of the five best players and are more seasoned.
Prediction: Knicks in 6
#4 Indiana vs #5 Milwaukee
Key question: can Milwaukee limit turnovers and score efficiently at the rim?
Even with unquestionably the best player in the series, the Bucks are heavy underdogs against Indiana. If they want a fighter’s chance at advancing, Milwaukee needs to do two things: limit turnovers and score at an elite level around the basket.
Since the All-Star break, the Bucks have turned over the ball on just 13% of their possessions, good for fifth league-wide. However, the Pacers are also one of the best teams at forcing turnovers, which they’ve done on 14.8% of opponent possessions, ranking 9th during that same span. More importantly, Indiana has also been elite in transition, sporting a 132.1 offensive rating (9th league-wide). Simply put, Milwaukee needs to do as good of a job, if not a better one, at limiting their turnovers if they want to stay in this series.
On offense, Giannis will need to somehow dominate the paint even more than usual. The Bucks shot 72.8% within four feet of the basket (2nd), but the Pacers have also been elite at defending the rim, too — they’re allowing just 62.7% shooting there, good for 3rd league-wide.
With that said, I have faith that Giannis will be able to impose his will against Evan Turner and Indiana’s defense given that he’s an all-time paint scorer. That Indiana has allowed 34.2% of opponent shots to come around the basket (26th) also plays in Milwaukee’s favor, but the Bucks will need to increase their own rim attempts (30.2%, 19th) in order to take full advantage.
Even so, Milwaukee’s at such a talent disadvantage that Giannis’ transcendent greatness won’t be able to carry them over the Pacers. Dame making a potential comeback would make this series more tightly contested, but it’s hard to see the Bucks going the distance right now.
Prediction: Pacers in 6
Eastern Conference Finals prediction
Boston over Cleveland
Oh, what a shocker! Two of the three best teams all year will meet in the ECF, and I’m sticking with Boston. Assuming they’re healthy, the Celtics have more experience and a higher defensive floor, while still having enough firepower to keep up with the Cavs. Perhaps I’m still too skeptical of Cleveland, but I’d be mildly surprised if they managed to get through a loaded Boston squad.
NBA Finals prediction
Boston over Oklahoma City, Tatum wins Finals MVP
This was my pre-season pick and I’m sticking to it. It’s truly a coin toss between two juggernauts, but I think Boston’s ceiling is just a tad higher because of their pedigree and the one true x-factor: Kristaps Porzingis. If he remains healthy, this Celtics team has no weaknesses and I’m still not convinced that OKC’s supporting cast can score enough to keep up with Boston, even accounting for Shai’s transcendent greatness. This pick is entirely dependent on the Celtics staying healthy, though, which might already be a fool’s errand given that Jaylen Brown’s knee is still wonky. Still, the Thunder’s bigs don’t have the best track record when it comes to health, either, and Boston is a more seasoned and battle-tested version of OKC in many ways.
Regardless of what happens, this should be the most epic finals in years, and we could look back on it as a passing of the torch between two of the best teams in recent memory.
