The Thunder have been in full control of the Western Conference standings since the start of the season. They’re 13.5 games ahead of the second place Rockets, which shows how dominant of a run this team is on.
The rest of the conference is strong, too. The Grizzlies, for example, are 44-28 but are the fifth seed and 16 games behind Oklahoma City. These two teams are both excellent even with such a wide record gap.
The Grizzlies and Thunder will face off tonight for the fourth time this season. Oklahoma City won all three of the previous matchups, and this round will also be in Oklahoma City.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander headlines a terrific roster and is a frontrunner for the MVP award. He’s taken this Thunder team to new heights and is seeking the team’s first championship since the Supersonics won in 1979.
While these final regular season games don’t have an impact on the Thunder’s playoff seed, they will serve as preparation for the postseason. It’s also a chance for Gilgeous-Alexander to solidify his MVP candidacy.
Oklahoma City is a 10.5-point favorite at home and the game total is set at 237.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Below, I have featured my favorite Gilgeous-Alexander prop bets to consider from this contest.
There’s a lot to like about Gilgeous-Alexander’s game. He’s an excellent scorer on drives and in the mid-range, leading the NBA in points per game. He’s also a great defender and is a solid passer and rebounder.
Because of his extreme scoring outbursts and averages, his points prop can be a bit steep. It’s set at 32.5 points at -125, which is a reasonable line. That said, the Grizzlies are a strong defensive team in the paint and mid-range.
Teams shoot an NBA-worst 39.4 percent from 10-14 feet against the Grizzlies. Memphis also holds opponents to the eighth worst field-goal percentage within 5-9 feet and less than five feet. This directly affects Gilgeous-Alexander, who primarily scores from those ranges. As long as the Grizzlies limit fouls, this could be a tough matchup for the potential MVP.
Because of the defense, Gilgeous-Alexander may be more inclined to pass, thus giving a good opportunity for his assists prop. The line is set at 6.5 (-115), which is slightly more than his season average of 6.3.
Memphis’ tough inside-the-arc defense isn’t the only factor. Gilgeous-Alexander has been passing the ball more often in recent games. He’s averaging 7.1 assists per game in March and has hit the over in eight of 11 contests.
Gilgeous-Alexander has also surpassed the over in all three of the previous matchups with the Grizzlies. Although he did hit the points over in two of the three games, the assists number is a better option based on the numbers.
